Reports · GCRI · Established
Methods and modelling · Risk management and systemic risk · Research and evidence
Reports 中的系统科学与建模
每个 Nexus 领域共同的数学和工程基础：如何对耦合 系统 are modelled, tested, validated and explained, so that a flood model, a grid model and a contagion model can be compared and combined honestly. This page shows the series it feeds, the evidence behind it and how to contribute.
- 系列
- 2
- 系统
- 4
- 方法
- 8
What this area brings to the editions.
每个 Nexus 领域共同的数学和工程基础：如何对耦合 系统 are modelled, tested, validated and explained, so that a flood model, a grid model and a contagion model can be compared and combined honestly.
Systems Science and Modelling on the map.
交互式地图需要JavaScript；图层列表和来源见下文。
图层 3
本页面的危害与暴露
关于本图层
- 证据
- 估计值
- 来源
- 世界网格化人口 v4.11（NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN））
- 提供方
- NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN）
- 许可协议
- CC BY 4.0
- 年份版本
- 静态产品；基于人口普查的估算，静态（2020 年）
- 处理结果
- 约 1 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算，作为风险暴露背景展示；不是受任何危害影响的人数。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测（云层造成缺口）
- 来源
- VIIRS 全球洪水产品（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星探测；云层造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星探测；云层造成缺口。卫星或模型栅格数据，按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声；数值是指标，而非某地的测量值。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2）（NASA LAADS DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星辐射亮度，已校正月光和大气影响
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-12
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示日期的卫星夜间辐射亮度；灯光是用电和停电的替代指标，并非对供应或获得电力情况的测量。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星图像
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据，按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声；数值是指标，而非某地的测量值。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测（云层和过境时间造成缺口）
- 来源
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 米（FIRMS）（NASA LANCE FIRMS）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星探测；云层和过境时间造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-13
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示日期的卫星热点探测结果，包括天然气火炬和工业热源；并非已确认的火情、事件报告或预警。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 模型生成（GIBS 发布的最新年份）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1）（NASA LP DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LP DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每年；卫星分类；GIBS 发布的最新年份
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2024-01-01
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示年份的卫星土地覆盖类别，含农田；该分类存在已知误差，并非农场登记册。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
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最新可用
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth
正在加载最新的NASA影像。
拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放；悬停可查看指针下的数值；重置可返回该区域。
危害与风险暴露，以北美为取景。NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品，各带自己的日期。它们是指标，而非对任何地点的评估。
数据：NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · 美国地质调查局 · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT
来源与许可
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)。采用CC BY 4.0许可。颜色依据已发布的色图重绘；在显示处数值按H3单元取平均（已修改）。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS近实时产品（洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率），NASA LANCE；影像来自NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色图重绘；在显示处数值按H3单元取平均（已修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS Black Marble 夜间灯光，NASA 戈达德太空飞行中心；由 NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System（LAADS DAAC）分发；影像经由 NASA GIBS 提供。颜色依据已发布的色表重绘；所示之处的数值已平均到 H3 单元中（有修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- NASA 火情资源管理信息系统（FIRMS），VIIRS 375 m 活跃火点产品，NASA LANCE；矢量瓦片经由 NASA GIBS 提供。颜色依据已发布的色表重绘；所示之处的数值已平均到 H3 单元中（有修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品（ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003，NASA LP DAAC）；影像经由 NASA GIBS 提供。颜色依据已发布的色表重绘；所示之处的数值已平均到 H3 单元中（有修改）。引用格式：NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
- 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据，见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL)，经由 NASA GIBS 提供（海岸线、边界、道路和地名）。颜色依据已发布的色表重绘；所示之处的数值已平均到 H3 单元中（有修改）。 ODbL
- Blue Marble，NASA Earth Observatory；影像经由 NASA GIBS 提供。颜色依据已发布的色表重绘；所示之处的数值已平均到 H3 单元中（有修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息：海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层（OpenStreetMap 数据，ODbL，© OpenStreetMap contributors）；Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图；3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数（5 m 至 200 m 分级，为便于辨识而作了夸张处理）。边界按已发布的样式绘制，不代表对任何领土的立场。
- 地球仪：MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1，BSD-3-Clause，© MapLibre贡献者。
- 实时事件：NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker（EONET）；事件仅供参考，并保留其原始来源链接。
- 实时：NASA EONET。事件仅供参考，不是主管机构的预警。
- 实时：美国地质调查局。事件仅供参考，不是主管机构的预警。
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- 河流流量预报，30天及区间（GloFAS，经Open-Meteo）：包含经修改的Copernicus Emergency Management Service 2026年信息；非洪水警报。
- 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
- 可选图层（图层列表中有 11 个来源：实时、预报、观测和背景）开启时会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名；预报是模型输出，派生指数是估计值。
图层与日期
- 人口密度，2020 年：人口：哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN，世界网格化人口 v4.11（2018），NASA SEDAC， CC BY 4.0 · 静态
- 洪水水体，3 日合成：VIIRS 全球洪水产品，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月14日
- 夜间灯光，每日：VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2），NASA LAADS DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 真彩色：VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
- 活跃火点与热异常：VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m（FIRMS），NASA LANCE FIRMS · 2026年10月13日
- 土地覆盖类型（IGBP），年度：MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1），NASA LP DAAC · 2024
9 findings of the drafted editions that bear on Systems Science and Modelling.
Drawn from the Baseline Edition 2026 drafts through the 系统 this area reads. Each opens at its anchor in its edition, with its numbered sources.
- ARE阿拉伯联合酋长国The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a humid summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-ARE-SYS-012
- ARG阿根廷The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows that cuts harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-ARG-SYS-012
- AU非洲联盟The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-AU-SYS-012
- AUS澳大利亚The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-AUS-SYS-012
- BRA巴西The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño drought that lowers Amazon rivers and hydropower while fire and thermal dispatch rise together.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-BRA-SYS-012
- CHE瑞士The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows that cuts hydropower and raises winter import dependence at the same time as farm and forest stress.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-CHE-SYS-012
- CHN中国The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer that cuts roads, underground transport, water and care together.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-CHN-SYS-012
- EU欧洲联盟The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply.EXPERT INPUT · COUNTRY-EU-SYS-012
- GS-02全球能源The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot, high-demand season and a stressed grid.EXPERT INPUT · SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-SYS-012
From Foundry evidence to the series.
The evidence, step by step, from the 系统 this area reads to the series it feeds.
How Systems Science and Modelling reaches 报告: what it reads, how it reads it, the sealed cut and the series it feeds.
| 步骤 | 发生的事项 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 01 What it reads | Systems Science and Modelling reads NXS-DSS（决策案例与审议） 与 NXS-LAB（研究、实验与模拟）: governed sources with their releases, never a value without its source. | |
| 02 How it reads them | Systems engineering and Probability and statistics turn the evidence into findings, with assumptions and limits stated beside each value. | |
| 03 The cut is sealed | Each quarter the evidence is sealed in one cut, so OBSERVED, REPORTED and ESTIMATED values stay apart and every edition can be rebuilt. | |
| 04 The series it feeds | The cut feeds Methods and Technical and Scenario and Stress-Test, from the Baseline Edition 2026 into the quarterly series. | |
| 05 Who decides | Decisions stay with the authorities that hold them, under their own rules; an edition informs a decision and never makes it. |
A teaching model of the evidence path, not a forecast and not a record of any run; the systems, methods and series named come from the registries. Sources: Reports 中的系统科学与建模 (2026); Systems Science and Modelling home (2026).
The series it feeds, and what backs each.
| 系列 | Foundry systems it draws on | Academy disciplines | Series home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 方法与技术 | The Global Risks Index（NXS-GRX） the methods, indicators and validation studies behind each product NXS-LAB method comparisons under transparent test conditions NXS-NXQ（软件、模型与能力生命周期） the fitness record of models and tools the methods use | 定量风险分析与统计 模型风险 and validation 风险指标与综合指数 | Methods and Technical series home |
| 情景与压力测试 | NXS-DSS combined scenario sets and the option appraisals run on them NXS-GRX the cascade paths a stress test follows | 情景分析与压力测试 不确定性与决策 Systemic, compound and 级联风险 | Scenario and Stress-Test series home |
The systems, methods and teaching behind it.
- NXS-DSSNXS-DSSNXS-DSSRooms: Scenarios, Decisions.
- NXS-LABNXS-LABNXS-LABRooms: Experiments, Benchmarks.
- NXS-NXQNXS-NXQNXS-NXQRooms: Capabilities, Competence.
- NXS-COR（算力、节点与运行时）NXS-CORNXS-CORNXS-COR
- STEM 方法STEM 公共资源系统工程The canonical method page, with its limits.
- STEM 方法STEM 公共资源概率与统计The canonical method page, with its limits.
- STEM 方法STEM 公共资源不确定性量化与模型验证The canonical method page, with its limits.
- STEM 方法STEM 公共资源网络科学与传染The canonical method page, with its limits.
- STEM 方法STEM 公共资源复杂系统与基于主体的建模The canonical method page, with its limits.
- STEM 方法STEM 公共资源优化与运筹学The canonical method page, with its limits.
- Academy disciplineRisk Academy复杂系统与系统建模系统与 Nexus 研究学院
- Academy disciplineRisk Academy不确定性与决策风险科学与方法学院
- 领域GCRI方法与建模The field across science, governance and finance.
- 领域GCRI风险管理与系统性风险The field across science, governance and finance.
- 领域GCRI研究与证据The field across science, governance and finance.
Where the same subject is reported elsewhere.
- Counterpart · GRF报告Research NexusShared: Research and evidence.
- Counterpart · GRF报告Policy NexusShared: Risk management and systemic risk.
- Counterpart · GRF报告Foresight NexusShared: Risk management and systemic risk.
- Counterpart · GRF报告Governance NexusShared: Risk management and systemic risk.
- Counterpart · GRA报告金融稳定Shared: Risk management and systemic risk.
- Counterpart · GRA报告精算与量化风险Shared: Methods and modelling.
- Standards areaNexus Standards数据与数据集Data and evidence. Parts NS-3, NS-3b, NS-11, NS-1.
- Standards areaNexus Standards文档与出版Data and evidence. Parts NS-2, NS-4, NS-7, NS-8.
- Standards areaNexus Standards来源与证据Data and evidence. Parts NS-3b, NS-11, NS-3.
- Standards areaNexus Standards验证与监测Trust, verification and assurance. Parts NS-11, NS-10, NS-14.
- Standards areaNexus Standards隐私与数据保护Data and evidence. Parts NS-10, NS-11, NS-3.
- Standards areaNexus Standards金融与支付数据Finance, insurance and the economy. Parts NS-9, NS-10, NS-11, NS-14.
Topic pages on Systems Science and Modelling.
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Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. Contributions received before the cut are reviewed for that edition; later ones wait for the next.
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