GCRI · بازرگانی و سەرچاوە ستراتیژییەکان
جیۆئابووری و پارچەپارچەبوون
Trade is increasingly shaped by security concerns: export controls, سزاکان, investment screening, subsidies and tariffs that steer supply chains toward allies or home. These measures can reduce some dependencies while creating others, raising costs and splitting markets. This page sets out how پارچەپارچەبوونی جیۆئابووری works, how it is measured, and what evidence serves the governments and firms that must navigate it.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation in seven parts.
- 01The questionGeoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops
- 02لە ناو بوارەکانFragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains
- 03نیشاندەرەکانWhat is measured, and how well
- 04سەرچاوەکانWhere the evidence comes from
- 05بڕیارەکانWho decides, and what the evidence serves
- 06Core questionsWhat experts ask about fragmentation
- 07Mechanisms and driversHow restrictions transmit
Geoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops.
Restrictions, market transmission and substitution. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Measures restrict and redirect
کۆنترۆڵی هەناردە، سزاکان and tariffs block or tax trade with particular partners. Trade often reroutes through third countries rather than stopping.
Subsidies relocate production
Industrial policies subsidise domestic or allied production of chips, batteries and clean technology. Others respond, and trade patterns shift over years.
Blocs form along alignment
Trade and investment grow faster between politically aligned countries. Fragmentation reduces efficiency gains from specialisation and can raise prices.
Retaliation compounds
Each measure invites a response. Escalating restrictions widen the set of goods affected and raise uncertainty for investment.
چاودێریی کۆریدۆر و گەرووی ڕێگا.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
چاودێریی کۆریدۆر و گەرووی ڕێگا
Geoeconomics and fragmentation · Corridor A · Week 28
- کاتی گەیشتن22ڕۆژ9ئاگادارکردنەوە
- نیشاندەری بارهەڵگرتن21431چاودێری
- کەشتییە ڕێڕەوگۆڕاوەکان57ئەم هەفتەیەچاودێری
- داپۆشینی لیستی کاڵا37ڕۆژئاسایی
کۆریدۆرەکان
سوور: پچڕاو
کاتی چاکبوونەوە بەرامبەر کاتی مانەوە
بەپێی دەخیلی هەستیار
| پەینی کیمیایی | گەروو | 7 | 3 | کورت |
| سووتەمەنی | گەروو | 5 | 4 | داپۆشراو |
| نیمچەگەیەنەرەکان | ناوەندی بەندەر | 24 | 11 | کورت |
| دانەوێڵە | کۆریدۆری A | 2 | 8 | داپۆشراو |
Fragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains.
- وزەهاوبەستیSanctions and restrictions reroute energy flows.What to watchSupplier diversification
- خۆراکهاوبەستیRestrictions on fertiliser and grain spread to importers.What to watchRestrictions by product
- تەندروستیهاوبەستیMedicines and ingredients cross many borders.What to watchIngredient source concentration
Fragmentation scenarios are designed for the Foresight Outlook series, labelled as scenarios. The IMF’s 2023 Staff Discussion Note and the WTO World Trade Report 2023 set out estimated costs and their wide ranges; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) takes no position on any dispute.
- Cases where a restriction reached a supply chain.
- Critiques of fragmentation scenarios.
How geoeconomics and fragmentation is modelled, measured and tested.
مۆدێلەکە، گریمانەکانی، داتاکانی و نادڵنیاییەکەی، بەو شێوەیەی زانا یان ئەندازیارێک دەیپشکنێت. پێکهاتەکان ڕێگا بڵاوکراوەکان دەگرنەبەر. بەهاکانی کێشراو نموونەییە، نەک دۆزینەوە.
مۆدێلی سیستەم
The couplings between the systems in geoeconomics and fragmentation: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | ناونیشان |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade policy interventions | count of measures by type | monthly | Trade policy monitoring databases | REPORTED |
| Trade between geopolitical blocs | share of total trade | quarterly | Bilateral trade data with bloc classification | مەزەندەکراو |
| Goods covered by export controls | count of product codes | per change | Government control lists | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| Foreign direct investment screening decisions | count of reviews and blocks | annual | Investment screening reports | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| Average applied tariff | percent | annual | Tariff databases | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| Trade policy uncertainty | index value from text analysis | monthly | Published uncertainty measures | مەزەندەکراو |
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| سەرچاوە | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade Alert | Trade policy interventions by country and type | Public, terms to check |
| WTO trade monitoring reports and Integrated Database | Trade measures and applied tariffs | Public, WTO terms |
| OECD investment screening reports | Investment screening mechanisms and activity | Public, OECD terms |
| Authority export control and سزاکان lists | Restricted items, entities and countries | Public records, licence per government |
| IMF and WTO analysis of پارچەپارچەبوونی جیۆئابووری | Estimates of fragmentation costs and trade shifts | Public, terms per publisher |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| کێ بڕیار دەدات | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of trade and foreign affairs | How to respond to and design trade measures | Measure trackers; fragmentation scenarios |
| Firms with global supply chains | How to adjust sourcing and investment to policy risk | Rerouting analyses; control lists |
| Multilateral institutions | How to monitor and reduce fragmentation costs | Trade monitoring evidence |
Outputs this topic produces
- Trade measure trackers for products and partners of interest
- Rerouting analyses of trade through third countries
- Scenarios of fragmentation effects on supply
- Evidence notes for trade policy dialogues
What experts ask about fragmentation.
- How do restrictions change trade flows, and how much trade is rerouted through third countries?
- Which products and sectors are most affected, and how quickly can supply be substituted?
- What are the costs of fragmentation, and who bears them?
- How do retaliatory measures and policy uncertainty affect investment and supply decisions?
- How does fragmentation interact with energy transitions and technology development?
How restrictions transmit.
Trade measures change relative prices and access. Importers seek alternative suppliers; exporters seek new markets; and some trade is rerouted through intermediary countries. In the short run, substitution is limited by capacity, qualification requirements and contracts, so restrictions raise prices and cause shortages. In the long run, supply chains reorganise, sometimes at higher cost.
Uncertainty is itself a channel. When firms expect policy to change, they may delay investment, build buffers or duplicate supply chains. These responses can increase resilience but also reduce efficiency and raise prices.
Measures can spread. Restrictions by one country can prompt responses by others, and broad categories of goods, such as technology or critical minerals, may become subject to overlapping controls.
Methods and their limits.
- 01
Gravity and trade models
Econometric models of bilateral trade used to estimate effects of measures, using econometrics. Results depend on specification.
- 02
شیکاری دەرچوو-دان
Tracing how restrictions on one sector affect others. Aggregation hides firm-level substitution.
- 03
Policy databases
Records of trade measures by product and country. Classification and coverage differ between sources.
- 04
Network scenarios
Simulating the removal of trade links using network science. Behavioural responses are simplified.
Estimates of fragmentation costs vary widely with assumptions about substitution and adjustment time, and are presented with their ranges.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01ئابووریپێویPrice transmission · Effects of trade measures · Disruption impacts on outputApplied here
- 02زانستی تۆڕ و سەرایەتTrade network centrality · Multi-tier dependency mapping · Disruption propagationApplied here
- 03سیستەمەکانی زانیاری جوگرافیFacility hazard overlays · Sourcing region deforestation · Corridor mappingApplied here
- 04باشترکردن و توێژینەوەی کارپێکردنRerouting under chokepoint closure · Strategic stock sizing · Sourcing portfolio designApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
ئەو لەش و بەڵگەنامانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیەیان لەگەڵ دەخوێنرێتەوە. دۆخ و وەشانەکان دەگۆڕێن؛ هەر بەستەرێک دەچێتە لای لەشی دەرکەر.
پرسیار و وەڵام.
What is geoeconomic fragmentation?
What is friend-shoring?
Do sanctions stop trade?
Does the platform take positions on sanctions or tariffs?
Does it give compliance guidance?
Is fragmentation always harmful?
لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- ئیمەیڵدەروازەی GW-GCRIلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGCRIهەموو ڕێگاکانی بەشداری ببینەجۆرەکانی بەشداری، هەریەکە چۆن پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت، چ ناوبردنێک وەردەگریت، مۆڵەتەکە و ئەوەی هەرگیز وەرناگیرێت.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
ڕێگایەک، کۆمەڵە داتایەک یان پرسیارێک بهێنە.
زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.
بەڵگەنامە یاساییەکان.
نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.