The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Trade is increasingly shaped by security concerns: export controls, sanctions, investment screening, subsidies and tariffs that steer supply chains toward allies or home. These measures can reduce some dependencies while creating others, raising costs and splitting markets. This page sets out how geoeconomic fragmentation works, how it is measured, and what evidence serves the governments and firms that must navigate it.
GCRI · In development · service level R0
Geoeconomic fragmentation is a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration in which trade, investment and technology flows are restricted or redirected along geopolitical lines. Export controls, sanctions, subsidies and tariffs reduce some dependencies while creating others, raise costs and often reroute trade through third countries.
For geoeconomics and fragmentation, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For geoeconomics and fragmentation, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation · Corridor A · Week 28
red: disrupted
by critical input
| Fertiliser | Strait | 7 | 3 | Short |
| Fuel | Strait | 5 | 4 | Covered |
| Semiconductors | Port hub | 24 | 11 | Short |
| Grain | Corridor A | 2 | 8 | Covered |
Restrictions, market transmission and substitution. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Export controls, sanctions and tariffs block or tax trade with particular partners. Trade often reroutes through third countries rather than stopping.
Industrial policies subsidise domestic or allied production of chips, batteries and clean technology. Others respond, and trade patterns shift over years.
Trade and investment grow faster between politically aligned countries. Fragmentation reduces efficiency gains from specialisation and can raise prices.
Each measure invites a response. Escalating restrictions widen the set of goods affected and raise uncertainty for investment.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Export control | A government restriction on exporting specified goods, technology or software. |
| Friend-shoring | Moving supply chains to politically aligned countries to reduce exposure to rivals. |
| Investment screening | Government review of proposed foreign investments for national security and public order risks. |
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade policy interventions | count of measures by type | monthly | Trade policy monitoring databases | REPORTED |
| Trade between geopolitical blocs | share of total trade | quarterly | Bilateral trade data with bloc classification | ESTIMATED |
| Goods covered by export controls | count of product codes | per change | Government control lists | OFFICIAL |
| Foreign direct investment screening decisions | count of reviews and blocks | annual | Investment screening reports | OFFICIAL |
| Average applied tariff | percent | annual | Tariff databases | OFFICIAL |
| Trade policy uncertainty | index value from text analysis | monthly | Published uncertainty measures | ESTIMATED |
The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.
Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade Alert | Trade policy interventions by country and type | Public, terms to check |
| WTO trade monitoring reports and Integrated Database | Trade measures and applied tariffs | Public, WTO terms |
| OECD investment screening reports | Investment screening mechanisms and activity | Public, OECD terms |
| Official export control and sanctions lists | Restricted items, entities and countries | Public records, licence per government |
| IMF and WTO analysis of geoeconomic fragmentation | Estimates of fragmentation costs and trade shifts | Public, terms per publisher |
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of trade and foreign affairs | How to respond to and design trade measures | Measure trackers; fragmentation scenarios |
| Firms with global supply chains | How to adjust sourcing and investment to policy risk | Rerouting analyses; control lists |
| Multilateral institutions | How to monitor and reduce fragmentation costs | Trade monitoring evidence |
Trade measures change relative prices and access. Importers seek alternative suppliers; exporters seek new markets; and some trade is rerouted through intermediary countries. In the short run, substitution is limited by capacity, qualification requirements and contracts, so restrictions raise prices and cause shortages. In the long run, supply chains reorganise, sometimes at higher cost.
Uncertainty is itself a channel. When firms expect policy to change, they may delay investment, build buffers or duplicate supply chains. These responses can increase resilience but also reduce efficiency and raise prices.
Measures can spread. Restrictions by one country can prompt responses by others, and broad categories of goods, such as technology or critical minerals, may become subject to overlapping controls.
Econometric models of bilateral trade used to estimate effects of measures, using econometrics. Results depend on specification.
Tracing how restrictions on one sector affect others. Aggregation hides firm-level substitution.
Records of trade measures by product and country. Classification and coverage differ between sources.
Simulating the removal of trade links using network science. Behavioural responses are simplified.
Estimates of fragmentation costs vary widely with assumptions about substitution and adjustment time, and are presented with their ranges.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.