GCRI · Bazirganî û çavkaniyên stratejîk
Geoaborî û perçebûn
Trade is increasingly shaped by security concerns: export controls, cezayan, investment screening, subsidies and tariffs that steer supply chains toward allies or home. These measures can reduce some dependencies while creating others, raising costs and splitting markets. This page sets out how perçebûna geoeconomic works, how it is measured, and what evidence serves the governments and firms that must navigate it.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation in seven parts.
- 01The questionGeoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops
- 02Li seranserê qadanFragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains
- 03NîşanderWhat is measured, and how well
- 04ÇavkanîWhere the evidence comes from
- 05BiryarWho decides, and what the evidence serves
- 06Core questionsWhat experts ask about fragmentation
- 07Mechanisms and driversHow restrictions transmit
Geoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops.
Restrictions, market transmission and substitution. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Measures restrict and redirect
Kontrolên hinardekirinê, cezayan and tariffs block or tax trade with particular partners. Trade often reroutes through third countries rather than stopping.
Subsidies relocate production
Industrial policies subsidise domestic or allied production of chips, batteries and clean technology. Others respond, and trade patterns shift over years.
Blocs form along alignment
Trade and investment grow faster between politically aligned countries. Fragmentation reduces efficiency gains from specialisation and can raise prices.
Retaliation compounds
Each measure invites a response. Escalating restrictions widen the set of goods affected and raise uncertainty for investment.
Çavdêra koridor û xalên tengbûnê.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Çavdêra koridor û xalên tengbûnê
Geoeconomics and fragmentation · Corridor A · Week 28
- Dema derbasbûnê22roj9Hişyarî
- Nîşandera barhilgirtinê21431Çavdêrî
- Keştî hatin guhertin57vê hefteyêÇavdêrî
- Kapsama envanterê37rojNormal
Koridor
sor: têkçûyî
Dema başbûnê li hember dema jiyandinê
li gorî têketina krîtîk
| Kûdî | Tengav | 7 | 3 | Kurt |
| Sotemenî | Tengav | 5 | 4 | Hatiye girtin |
| Nîvgihandî | Navenda benderê | 24 | 11 | Kurt |
| Genim | Koridora A | 2 | 8 | Hatiye girtin |
Fragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains.
- EnerjîGirêdanSanctions and restrictions reroute energy flows.What to watchSupplier diversification
- XwarinGirêdanRestrictions on fertiliser and grain spread to importers.What to watchRestrictions by product
- TenduristîGirêdanMedicines and ingredients cross many borders.What to watchIngredient source concentration
Fragmentation scenarios are designed for the Foresight Outlook series, labelled as scenarios. The IMF’s 2023 Staff Discussion Note and the WTO World Trade Report 2023 set out estimated costs and their wide ranges; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) takes no position on any dispute.
- Cases where a restriction reached a supply chain.
- Critiques of fragmentation scenarios.
How geoeconomics and fragmentation is modelled, measured and tested.
Model, texmînên wî, daneyên wî û nediyariya wî, bi şeweyê ku zanyar an endezyar kontrol bike. Avahî rêbazên weşandî dişopînin. Nirxên hatine xêzkirin nimûneyî ne, ne encam in.
Modela pergalê
The couplings between the systems in geoeconomics and fragmentation: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade policy interventions | count of measures by type | monthly | Trade policy monitoring databases | REPORTED |
| Trade between geopolitical blocs | share of total trade | quarterly | Bilateral trade data with bloc classification | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
| Goods covered by export controls | count of product codes | per change | Government control lists | Statîstîkên weşandî |
| Foreign direct investment screening decisions | count of reviews and blocks | annual | Investment screening reports | Statîstîkên weşandî |
| Average applied tariff | percent | annual | Tariff databases | Statîstîkên weşandî |
| Trade policy uncertainty | index value from text analysis | monthly | Published uncertainty measures | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Çavkanî | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade Alert | Trade policy interventions by country and type | Public, terms to check |
| WTO trade monitoring reports and Integrated Database | Trade measures and applied tariffs | Public, WTO terms |
| OECD investment screening reports | Investment screening mechanisms and activity | Public, OECD terms |
| Authority export control and cezayan lists | Restricted items, entities and countries | Public records, licence per government |
| IMF and WTO analysis of perçebûna geoeconomic | Estimates of fragmentation costs and trade shifts | Public, terms per publisher |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Kî biryarê dide | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of trade and foreign affairs | How to respond to and design trade measures | Measure trackers; fragmentation scenarios |
| Firms with global supply chains | How to adjust sourcing and investment to policy risk | Rerouting analyses; control lists |
| Multilateral institutions | How to monitor and reduce fragmentation costs | Trade monitoring evidence |
Outputs this topic produces
- Trade measure trackers for products and partners of interest
- Rerouting analyses of trade through third countries
- Scenarios of fragmentation effects on supply
- Evidence notes for trade policy dialogues
What experts ask about fragmentation.
- How do restrictions change trade flows, and how much trade is rerouted through third countries?
- Which products and sectors are most affected, and how quickly can supply be substituted?
- What are the costs of fragmentation, and who bears them?
- How do retaliatory measures and policy uncertainty affect investment and supply decisions?
- How does fragmentation interact with energy transitions and technology development?
How restrictions transmit.
Trade measures change relative prices and access. Importers seek alternative suppliers; exporters seek new markets; and some trade is rerouted through intermediary countries. In the short run, substitution is limited by capacity, qualification requirements and contracts, so restrictions raise prices and cause shortages. In the long run, supply chains reorganise, sometimes at higher cost.
Uncertainty is itself a channel. When firms expect policy to change, they may delay investment, build buffers or duplicate supply chains. These responses can increase resilience but also reduce efficiency and raise prices.
Measures can spread. Restrictions by one country can prompt responses by others, and broad categories of goods, such as technology or critical minerals, may become subject to overlapping controls.
Methods and their limits.
- 01
Gravity and trade models
Econometric models of bilateral trade used to estimate effects of measures, using econometrics. Results depend on specification.
- 02
Analîza têketin-derketinê
Tracing how restrictions on one sector affect others. Aggregation hides firm-level substitution.
- 03
Policy databases
Records of trade measures by product and country. Classification and coverage differ between sources.
- 04
Network scenarios
Simulating the removal of trade links using network science. Behavioural responses are simplified.
Estimates of fragmentation costs vary widely with assumptions about substitution and adjustment time, and are presented with their ranges.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01EkonometrîPrice transmission · Effects of trade measures · Disruption impacts on outputApplied here
- 02Zanista torê û vegirtinêTrade network centrality · Multi-tier dependency mapping · Disruption propagationApplied here
- 03Pergalên agahiya erdnîgarîFacility hazard overlays · Sourcing region deforestation · Corridor mappingApplied here
- 04Optîmîzasyon û lêkolîna operasyonanRerouting under chokepoint closure · Strategic stock sizing · Sourcing portfolio designApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
Sazî û belgeyên ku ev rûpel li hember wan tê xwendin. Rewş û çap diguherin; her girêdan diçe ba saziya derxistinê.
Pirs û bersiv.
What is geoeconomic fragmentation?
What is friend-shoring?
Do sanctions stop trade?
Does the platform take positions on sanctions or tariffs?
Does it give compliance guidance?
Is fragmentation always harmful?
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- E-nameDergeh GW-GCRIJi vê rûpelê bişîninDelîl, rastkirin, doz, rêbaz, nirxandin, wergerandin an têketina profîlê. Bi nîşana vê rûpelê digihîje, ji ber vê yekê edîtorê xwediyê wê wê bistîne.
- ZenodoDepoya vekirîWê razînin û ji civakê re bişîninTomara xwe li Zenodo bi ORCID iD ya xwe biweşînin, paşê wê li wir ji civaka Reports re bişînin. Kurator wê vedikolin; DOI ya we dimîne.
- rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkGCRIHemû rêyên beşdariyê bibîneCureyên beşdariyê, her yek çawa tê nirxandin, tu çi navlêkirinê distînî, lîsans û tiştê ku qet nayê qebûlkirin.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Rêbazek, danehevek an pirsek bîne.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Belgeyên hiqûqî.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.