GCRI · 貿易と戦略資源
地経学と分断
Trade is increasingly shaped by security concerns: export controls, 制裁, investment screening, subsidies and tariffs that steer supply chains toward allies or home. These measures can reduce some dependencies while creating others, raising costs and splitting markets. This page sets out how 地経学的分断 works, how it is measured, and what evidence serves the governments and firms that must navigate it.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation in seven parts.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops.
Restrictions, market transmission and substitution. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Measures restrict and redirect
誰が誰と取引するかを組み替える輸出管理、 制裁 and tariffs block or tax trade with particular partners. Trade often reroutes through third countries rather than stopping.
Subsidies relocate production
Industrial policies subsidise domestic or allied production of chips, batteries and clean technology. Others respond, and trade patterns shift over years.
Blocs form along alignment
Trade and investment grow faster between politically aligned countries. Fragmentation reduces efficiency gains from specialisation and can raise prices.
Retaliation compounds
Each measure invites a response. Escalating restrictions widen the set of goods affected and raise uncertainty for investment.
回廊とチョークポイントの監視。
このテーマを追跡するためにチームが使う画面：その指標、状態、決定。名前は例であり、値はイメージです。
回廊とチョークポイントのモニター
Geoeconomics and fragmentation · Corridor A · Week 28
- 輸送時間22日9警報
- 貨物指数21431注視
- 船舶を迂回57今週注視
- インベントリーの網羅率37日平常
回廊
赤：途絶
復旧までの時間と存続できる時間
重要な投入物別
| 肥料 | 海峡 | 7 | 3 | 短期 |
| 燃料 | 海峡 | 5 | 4 | 対象 |
| 半導体 | 港湾ハブ | 24 | 11 | 短期 |
| 穀物 | 回廊 A | 2 | 8 | 対象 |
Fragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains.
Fragmentation scenarios are designed for the フォーサイト展望シリーズ, labelled as scenarios. The IMF’s 2023 Staff Discussion Note and the WTO World Trade Report 2023 set out estimated costs and their wide ranges; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) takes no position on any dispute.
- Cases where a restriction reached a supply chain.
- Critiques of fragmentation scenarios.
How geoeconomics and fragmentation is modelled, measured and tested.
モデル、その仮定、データ、不確実性を、科学者やエンジニアが確認する形で示します。構造は公表された手法に従っています。描かれた値は例示であり、知見ではありません。
システム・モデル
The couplings between the systems in geoeconomics and fragmentation: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
何を、どの程度うまく測定しているか。
各指標には、その単位、更新頻度、背後にある出典の種類、値が持つことになるエビデンスのラベルが付いています。値は表示しません：プログラムが自らの権限のもとで値を提供します。
| 指標 | 単位 | 周期 | 出典の種類 | ラベル |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade policy interventions | count of measures by type | 月次 | Trade policy monitoring databases | 報告値 |
| Trade between geopolitical blocs | share of total trade | 四半期ごと | Bilateral trade data with bloc classification | 推定 |
| Goods covered by export controls | count of product codes | 変更ごと | Government control lists | 公表統計 |
| Foreign direct investment screening decisions | count of reviews and blocks | 年次 | Investment screening reports | 公表統計 |
| Average applied tariff | percent | 年次 | Tariff databases | 公表統計 |
| Trade policy uncertainty | index value from text analysis | 月次 | Published uncertainty measures | 推定 |
エビデンスの出所。
名前の明示された公開データセットと機関の記録。それぞれにライセンス区分があります。合意に基づく出典は、その条件のもとでのみ使用し、再公開することはありません。
| 出典 | 提供するもの | ライセンス区分 |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade Alert | Trade policy interventions by country and type | Public, terms to check |
| WTO trade monitoring reports and Integrated Database | Trade measures and applied tariffs | Public, WTO terms |
| OECD investment screening reports | Investment screening mechanisms and activity | Public, OECD terms |
| Authority export control and 制裁 lists | Restricted items, entities and countries | Public records, licence per government |
| IMF and WTO analysis of 地経学的分断 | Estimates of fragmentation costs and trade shifts | Public, terms per publisher |
誰が決め、エビデンスが何に役立つか。
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 誰が決定するか | 質問 | このページが提供するエビデンス |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of trade and foreign affairs | How to respond to and design trade measures | Measure trackers; fragmentation scenarios |
| Firms with global supply chains | How to adjust sourcing and investment to policy risk | Rerouting analyses; control lists |
| Multilateral institutions | How to monitor and reduce fragmentation costs | Trade monitoring evidence |
このトピックが生み出す成果物
- Trade measure trackers for products and partners of interest
- Rerouting analyses of trade through third countries
- Scenarios of fragmentation effects on supply
- Evidence notes for trade policy dialogues
What experts ask about fragmentation.
- How do restrictions change trade flows, and how much trade is rerouted through third countries?
- Which products and sectors are most affected, and how quickly can supply be substituted?
- What are the costs of fragmentation, and who bears them?
- How do retaliatory measures and policy uncertainty affect investment and supply decisions?
- How does fragmentation interact with energy transitions and technology development?
How restrictions transmit.
Trade measures change relative prices and access. Importers seek alternative suppliers; exporters seek new markets; and some trade is rerouted through intermediary countries. In the short run, substitution is limited by capacity, qualification requirements and contracts, so restrictions raise prices and cause shortages. In the long run, supply chains reorganise, sometimes at higher cost.
Uncertainty is itself a channel. When firms expect policy to change, they may delay investment, build buffers or duplicate supply chains. These responses can increase resilience but also reduce efficiency and raise prices.
Measures can spread. Restrictions by one country can prompt responses by others, and broad categories of goods, such as technology or critical minerals, may become subject to overlapping controls.
手法とその限界。
- 01
Gravity and trade models
Econometric models of bilateral trade used to estimate effects of measures, using 計量経済学. Results depend on specification.
- 02
産業連関分析
Tracing how restrictions on one sector affect others. Aggregation hides firm-level substitution.
- 03
Policy databases
Records of trade measures by product and country. Classification and coverage differ between sources.
- 04
Network scenarios
Simulating the removal of trade links using ネットワーク科学. Behavioural responses are simplified.
Estimates of fragmentation costs vary widely with assumptions about substitution and adjustment time, and are presented with their ranges.
どのように研究され、手法が言えないことは何か。
Where this page’s references lead.
このページの読解の基準となる機関と文書。状態と版は変わります。各リンクは発行機関へ移動します。
質問と回答。
What is geoeconomic fragmentation?
What is friend-shoring?
Do sanctions stop trade?
Does the platform take positions on sanctions or tariffs?
Does it give compliance guidance?
Is fragmentation always harmful?
このページからエビデンスを提供する。
報告書 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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