GCRI · Advanced Industry and Robotics

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Materials and manufacturing

New materials and manufacturing methods, from advanced alloys and composites to additive manufacturing and precision processes, change what can be made and where. They also bring new quality, safety and supply questions. This page sets out how materials and manufacturing innovation reaches production, how quality and capacity are measured, and what evidence serves the manufacturers, standards bodies and agencies involved.

02The question

Materials and manufacturing: how the risk develops.

Advanced materials, additive processes and circularity. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.

Mechanism

Qualification takes longer than invention

A new material or process must be qualified for each application, with testing and certification by customers and regulators. This often takes years.

Mechanism

Additive manufacturing changes supply

3D printing allows local, on-demand production of complex parts, but quality varies with machine, material and process settings.

Mechanism

Quality depends on process control

Variability in raw materials and processes leads to defects. Statistical process control and inspection keep quality within limits.

Mechanism

Inputs can be scarce

Specialty materials, powders and alloys may come from few suppliers, exposing manufacturers to shortages and price swings.

03Geography

Infrastructure exposure in Germany.

Night lights, population density, flood water and true-colour imagery over Germany, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 4

Infrastructure exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Infrastructure exposure, framed on Germany. Layers as NASA publishes them, each with its own date.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (12 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Across the Nexus

New materials and methods change supply and safety across domains.

05Simulator

A shock through an input-output economy.

A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Germany; the model itself is not tied to a place.

Controls

Sector hit first (position in the list)
0
Size of the shock
30 % of its output
Duration of the shock
30 days
Recovery rate
0.08 per day
Days simulated
180 days

Readouts

Output lost over the run
0.65 % of a year's output
Total over direct (multiplier)
1.80 times
Most affected other sector
Services
Its peak inoperability
4.2 %
Numbers, methods and sources
SectorPeak inoperability (%)Output weight (%)
Agriculture30.2013.1
Energy2.8025.4
Manufacturing0.4711.2
Transport and ports0.3720.1
Trade3.9018.4
Services4.1711.8

Methods

  1. Input-output analysis Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
  2. Inoperability input-output model Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
  3. Dynamic inoperability and recovery Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
  4. Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualizing uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Data

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:

  • Seaports Natural Earth
  • Maritime chokepoints Nexus (named straits and canals at their published coordinates)
  • Railways Natural Earth
  • Major roads Natural Earth
06Indicators

What is measured, and how well.

Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.

IndicatorUnitCadenceSource typeLabel
Manufacturing value addedshare of gross domestic productannualNational accountsPublished statistics
Additive manufacturing adoptionpercent of firmsper surveyBusiness surveysREPORTED
Defect rateparts per millionmonthlyQuality recordsOBSERVED
Process capabilitycapability indexper processStatistical process controlOBSERVED
Materials R&D expenditurecurrency unitsannualR&D statisticsPublished statistics
Product recalls for manufacturing defectscountannualRegulator recall databasesPublished statistics
07Twin and cascade simulator

Model materials and manufacturing as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Industry and manufacturing: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification.

Hazards

  • Natech event
  • Dam failure
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Chemical spill or leak (set off downstream)
  • Emergency-response overload (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Toxic gas release (set off downstream)
  • Industrial fire (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-12 Software, model and AI/ML artifacts (supply chain, model cards, dataset sheets)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
  • NRS-H50 Hazard family: Industrial and process accidents (NHS-1 infra.industrial)
  • NRS-H109 Hazard family: Energy-transition technology failures (NHS-1 tech.energy-transition)
  • NRS-X10 Chemical, industrial, nuclear and radiological safety
  • NRS-H54 Hazard family: Signal and platform disruption (NHS-1 cyber.platform)
  • NRS-K14 Domain pack profile: Manufacturing industrial (DOMAIN-014)

Observation

  • eMARS Major Accident Reporting System (listed for reference)
  • World Development Indicators (listed for reference)
  • ILOSTAT (listed for reference)
  • Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita
  • CO2 emission per unit of value added
  • Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)
  • Direct economic loss to all other damaged or destroyed productive assets attributed to disasters

Example geography

  • The Strait of Malacca: 227 H3 hexagons at resolution 4
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
08Canvas

From sources to decisions.

The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.

Pipeline canvas · Materials and manufacturing as a run graphDesign, not a record
Materials and manufacturing: supply chain disruption analysisThe bill of materials is mapped through its tiers; concentration and chokepoints are found; disruption scenarios compare time to recover with time to survive; mitigations close the gap. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.

09Methods and evidence

How materials and manufacturing is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

System model

The couplings between the systems in materials and manufacturing: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−++IndustryWorkTradeCommunitiesEconomyR reinforcingB balancing
Causal loop diagram from the page's systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
10Sources

Where the evidence comes from.

Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.

SourceWhat it givesLicence class
UNIDO industrial statisticsManufacturing value added and production by sectorPublic, UNIDO terms
OECD Main Science and Technology IndicatorsR&D spending by sectorPublic, OECD terms
NIST additive manufacturing resourcesMeasurement science and standards for additive processesPublic domain, US government
ISO/ASTM 52900 seriesTerminology and standards for additive manufacturingLicensed standards, purchase required
Regulator recall databasesRecalls by product and causePublic records, terms per regulator
11Decisions

Who decides, and what the evidence serves.

Advanced Industry and Robotics prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.

Who decidesThe questionEvidence this page serves
ManufacturersWhich materials and processes to adopt and how to qualify themQualification reviews; quality data
Standards bodies and regulatorsWhat testing and certification to requireQuality and recall evidence
Industry ministriesWhere to support manufacturing capabilityValue added and R&D evidence

Outputs this topic produces

  • Qualification pathway reviews for new materials and processes
  • Quality and recall trend analyses
  • Specialty input supply assessments
  • Evidence notes for manufacturing policy
12Core questions

What experts ask.

  1. 01

    How do new materials behave over time?

    Fatigue, ageing, fire behaviour and failure modes that differ from familiar materials.

  2. 02

    Is additive manufacturing reliable?

    How defects arise in printed parts and how quality is assured.

  3. 03

    What hazards do new materials pose?

    Exposure to fine particles, reactive substances and fumes during production and recycling.

  4. 04

    Where do materials come from and go?

    Supply of critical inputs and recovery at end of life.

13Mechanisms

What drives the risk.

Advanced materials often outperform traditional ones in strength, weight or conductivity, but their long-term behaviour is less well documented. Composites can fail without visible warning; some battery chemistries carry thermal runaway risk.

Additive manufacturing enables complex parts and distributed production. Its quality depends on process parameters, powder quality and post-processing, and internal defects may be hard to detect without specialized inspection.

Many advanced materials depend on concentrated supplies of critical minerals, exposing manufacturers to geopolitical and trade disruption.

Circularity is harder for complex materials. Composites, multi-material products and nanomaterials are difficult to separate and recycle, so design for recovery matters from the outset.

Digital production adds a further layer. Additive manufacturing relies on design files and process parameters that can be copied, altered or corrupted, so the integrity of digital inputs becomes part of product quality.

14Methods and limits

How evidence is gathered, and where it stops.

Method or dataWhat it showsIts limit
Materials testingMechanical and fire performanceLaboratory conditions differ from service
Non-destructive inspectionInternal defects in partsDetection limits vary by method
Life-cycle assessmentEnvironmental burdens across stagesSensitive to boundaries and data
Supply-chain mappingSources of critical inputsOpaque beyond first-tier suppliers
16Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

17Questions

Questions and answers.

What is additive manufacturing?
Building parts layer by layer from digital designs, often called 3D printing, using polymers, metals or other materials.
Why does qualifying new materials take so long?
Because each use must show the material performs reliably under its conditions, through testing and certification by customers and regulators.
What is statistical process control?
Monitoring a production process with statistical methods to detect unusual variation before it causes defects in products.
Are printed parts as strong as conventional ones?
They can be, when process and inspection are well controlled. Performance depends heavily on parameters and post-processing.
Does the platform qualify materials?
No. It publishes research. Qualification is the work of manufacturers, standards bodies and regulators.
Why link materials with circularity?
Because design decisions about materials largely decide whether a product can be repaired, reused or recycled.
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