GCRI · Masa Depan Pekerjaan dan Keterampilan
Perubahan pasar kerja
Labour markets change continuously as sectors grow and shrink, technology shifts tasks, populations age and climate policy reshapes industries. The effects show up in which jobs exist, where, on what contracts and at what pay. This page sets out how labour market change happens, how it is measured with standard classifications, and what evidence serves the labour ministries, employers and unions who respond to it.
Labour market change on the record.
Labour market change: how the risk develops.
Sector employment and occupational risk. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Sectoral shifts move workers
Employment moves from agriculture and manufacturing toward services as economies develop, and from declining to growing industries during transitions.
Contracts are changing
Temporary, part-time, on-call and platform work have grown in many countries, changing security, benefits and bargaining power.
Demography reshapes supply
Ageing reduces the working-age population in some countries, while young populations in others need many new jobs each year.
Climate change and policy reallocate jobs
Heat, extreme weather and decarbonisation affect jobs in agriculture, construction, energy and transport, creating and ending work in different places.
How labour market change is modelled, measured and tested.
Model, asumsi, data, dan ketidakpastiannya, dalam bentuk yang akan diperiksa ilmuwan atau insinyur. Strukturnya mengikuti metode yang dipublikasikan. Nilai yang digambar bersifat ilustratif, bukan temuan.
Model sistem
The couplings between the systems in labour market change: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Labour markets change with shocks in every domain.
Findings are designed for the seri Risiko dan Ketahanan Sistem Negara. The ILO’s Trends 2025 report is the reference; occupations follow ISCO-08.
- Labour force survey data.
- Regional studies.
Apa yang diukur, dan seberapa baik.
Setiap indikator membawa satuan, frekuensi, jenis sumber di baliknya, dan label bukti yang akan dibawa suatu nilai. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan: sebuah program menyediakannya berdasarkan wewenangnya sendiri.
| Indikator | Unit | Kadensi | Jenis sumber | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment-to-population ratio | percent | setiap kuartal | Labour force surveys | Statistik terbitan |
| Employment by sector and occupation | percent of employment | tahunan | Labour force surveys using ISCO | Statistik terbitan |
| Temporary employment | percent of employees | tahunan | Labour force surveys | Statistik terbitan |
| Labour underutilisation | percent of extended labour force | setiap kuartal | Labour force surveys | Statistik terbitan |
| Job vacancy rate | percent of posts vacant | setiap kuartal | Vacancy surveys | Statistik terbitan |
| Real median wage | currency units in constant prices | tahunan | Wage statistics | Statistik terbitan |
Asal bukti.
Set data publik bernama dan catatan kelembagaan, masing-masing dengan kelas lisensinya. Sumber berdasarkan perjanjian hanya digunakan sesuai ketentuannya dan tidak pernah diterbitkan ulang.
| Sumber | Apa yang diberikannya | Kelas lisensi |
|---|---|---|
| ILOSTAT | Employment, unemployment, underutilisation and wages | Terbuka, CC BY 4.0 |
| OECD Employment Outlook and labour statistics | Labour market trends and policy analysis | Public, OECD terms |
| Eurostat labour force survey | Employment by sector, occupation and contract type | Open, Eurostat reuse policy |
| National labour force surveys | Employment structure | Licence per statistics office |
| Online job posting data summaries | Demand by occupation and skill | Commercial; public summaries (to check) |
Siapa yang memutuskan, dan apa yang dilayani bukti.
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Siapa yang memutuskan | Pertanyaannya | Bukti yang dilayani halaman ini |
|---|---|---|
| Labour ministries | Which sectors and groups need transition support | Change profiles; scenarios |
| Employers’ organisations and unions | What to negotiate on contracts and transitions | Job quality evidence |
| Public employment services | Where to focus job matching and training | Vacancy and underutilisation evidence |
Keluaran yang dihasilkan topik ini
- Labour market change profiles by sector and region
- Contract and job quality analyses
- Transition scenarios for climate-affected sectors
- Evidence notes for employment strategies
What labour economists ask.
- Which sectors and occupations are growing or shrinking, where and for whom?
- Is change driven by technology, trade, demand, demography or policy?
- Are displaced workers finding comparable work, and how long does it take?
- Are labour markets becoming more polarised between high- and low-paid work?
Drivers of structural change.
Technology changes the relative productivity of tasks, shifting demand towards skills that complement it. Trade and global value chains move production between countries. Demographic ageing shrinks labour supply in some economies and increases demand for care work. Consumer demand shifts as incomes rise. Public policy, from minimum wages to industrial strategy, shapes all of these.
Change is uneven. Earlier computerisation reduced demand for routine middle-skill jobs in many economies, a pattern called job polarisation. Workers displaced from declining industries often face lasting earnings losses, especially older workers and those in places with few alternatives.
Measuring change and its limits.
- 01
Labour force surveys and administrative data
Employment, hours and earnings by sector and occupation. Informal work is poorly captured in many countries.
- 02
Occupational risk indicators
Measures of exposure to automation, trade or climate built from task data, using ilmu ekonomi dan ekonomi pembangunan. Exposure is not the same as job loss.
- 03
Displacement studies
Following workers after job loss with linked data and ekonometrika. Such data exist in relatively few countries.
- 04
Vacancy and online job data
Near-real-time signals of skill demand. Online postings over-represent some occupations and regions.
Cara hal ini dikaji, dan apa yang tidak dapat dinyatakan metodenya.
- 01Ilmu ekonomi dan ekonomi pembangunanAnalisis teknologi berbasis tugas · Lembaga pasar tenaga kerja · Ekonomi transisi yang adilDiterapkan di sini
- 02EkonometrikaDampak perpindahan dengan data tertaut · Evaluasi program pelatihan · Proyeksi tenaga kerjaDiterapkan di sini
- 03Ilmu sosial dan perilakuSurvei kualitas pekerjaan · Kajian dialog sosial · Riset pengalaman pelajarDiterapkan di sini
Where this page’s references lead.
Badan dan dokumen yang menjadi acuan halaman ini. Status dan edisi berubah; setiap tautan menuju badan penerbitnya.
Tanya jawab.
What is labour underutilisation?
What is ISCO?
How does climate change affect jobs?
What is job polarisation?
Why do displaced workers lose earnings for years?
Does the platform publish occupational risk rankings?
Can online job data replace surveys?
Kontribusikan bukti dari halaman ini.
Laporan is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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Bawa metode, dataset, atau pertanyaan.
Informasi dan pertanyaan sudah terbuka hari ini. Sebuah pertanyaan menerima nomor referensi dan menyebutkan langkah berikutnya; lamaran, pembayaran, alokasi komputasi, dan pendaftaran hanya dibuka ketika tim, ketentuan, dan kapasitas tinjauannya tersedia.
Dokumen hukum.
Peta, data, dan gambar di situs ini ditampilkan untuk konteks dan informasi umum. Semua itu bukan nasihat, prakiraan, atau peringatan; batasan informasinya dijelaskan dalam Penafian dan Pemberitahuan Data.