GCRI · Future of Work and Skills
Labour market change
Labour markets change continuously as sectors grow and shrink, technology shifts tasks, populations age and climate policy reshapes industries. The effects show up in which jobs exist, where, on what contracts and at what pay. This page sets out how labour market change happens, how it is measured with standard classifications, and what evidence serves the labour ministries, employers and unions who respond to it.
Labour market change on the record.
Labour market change: how the risk develops.
Sector employment and occupational risk. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Sectoral shifts move workers
Employment moves from agriculture and manufacturing toward services as economies develop, and from declining to growing industries during transitions.
Contracts are changing
Temporary, part-time, on-call and platform work have grown in many countries, changing security, benefits and bargaining power.
Demography reshapes supply
Ageing reduces the working-age population in some countries, while young populations in others need many new jobs each year.
Climate change and policy reallocate jobs
Heat, extreme weather and decarbonisation affect jobs in agriculture, construction, energy and transport, creating and ending work in different places.
How labour market change is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in labour market change: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Labour markets change with shocks in every domain.
Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. The ILO’s Trends 2025 report is the reference; occupations follow ISCO-08.
- Labour force survey data.
- Regional studies.
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment-to-population ratio | percent | quarterly | Labour force surveys | Published statistics |
| Employment by sector and occupation | percent of employment | annual | Labour force surveys using ISCO | Published statistics |
| Temporary employment | percent of employees | annual | Labour force surveys | Published statistics |
| Labour underutilisation | percent of extended labour force | quarterly | Labour force surveys | Published statistics |
| Job vacancy rate | percent of posts vacant | quarterly | Vacancy surveys | Published statistics |
| Real median wage | currency units in constant prices | annual | Wage statistics | Published statistics |
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| ILOSTAT | Employment, unemployment, underutilisation and wages | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| OECD Employment Outlook and labour statistics | Labour market trends and policy analysis | Public, OECD terms |
| Eurostat labour force survey | Employment by sector, occupation and contract type | Open, Eurostat reuse policy |
| National labour force surveys | Employment structure | Licence per statistics office |
| Online job posting data summaries | Demand by occupation and skill | Commercial; public summaries (to check) |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Labour ministries | Which sectors and groups need transition support | Change profiles; scenarios |
| Employers’ organisations and unions | What to negotiate on contracts and transitions | Job quality evidence |
| Public employment services | Where to focus job matching and training | Vacancy and underutilisation evidence |
Outputs this topic produces
- Labour market change profiles by sector and region
- Contract and job quality analyses
- Transition scenarios for climate-affected sectors
- Evidence notes for employment strategies
What labour economists ask.
- Which sectors and occupations are growing or shrinking, where and for whom?
- Is change driven by technology, trade, demand, demography or policy?
- Are displaced workers finding comparable work, and how long does it take?
- Are labour markets becoming more polarised between high- and low-paid work?
Drivers of structural change.
Technology changes the relative productivity of tasks, shifting demand towards skills that complement it. Trade and global value chains move production between countries. Demographic ageing shrinks labour supply in some economies and increases demand for care work. Consumer demand shifts as incomes rise. Public policy, from minimum wages to industrial strategy, shapes all of these.
Change is uneven. Earlier computerisation reduced demand for routine middle-skill jobs in many economies, a pattern called job polarisation. Workers displaced from declining industries often face lasting earnings losses, especially older workers and those in places with few alternatives.
Measuring change and its limits.
- 01
Labour force surveys and administrative data
Employment, hours and earnings by sector and occupation. Informal work is poorly captured in many countries.
- 02
Occupational risk indicators
Measures of exposure to automation, trade or climate built from task data, using economics and development economics. Exposure is not the same as job loss.
- 03
Displacement studies
Following workers after job loss with linked data and econometrics. Such data exist in relatively few countries.
- 04
Vacancy and online job data
Near-real-time signals of skill demand. Online postings over-represent some occupations and regions.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Economics and development economicsTask-based analysis of technology · Labour market institutions · Just transition economicsApplied here
- 02EconometricsDisplacement effects with linked data · Training programme evaluation · Workforce projectionsApplied here
- 03Social and behavioural scienceJob quality surveys · Social dialogue studies · Learner experience researchApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
What is labour underutilisation?
What is ISCO?
How does climate change affect jobs?
What is job polarisation?
Why do displaced workers lose earnings for years?
Does the platform publish occupational risk rankings?
Can online job data replace surveys?
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