GCRI · Futuro del trabajo y las competencias
Cambio del mercado laboral
Labour markets change continuously as sectors grow and shrink, technology shifts tasks, populations age and climate policy reshapes industries. The effects show up in which jobs exist, where, on what contracts and at what pay. This page sets out how labour market change happens, how it is measured with standard classifications, and what evidence serves the labour ministries, employers and unions who respond to it.
Labour market change on the record.
Labour market change: how the risk develops.
Sector employment and occupational risk. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Sectoral shifts move workers
Employment moves from agriculture and manufacturing toward services as economies develop, and from declining to growing industries during transitions.
Contracts are changing
Temporary, part-time, on-call and platform work have grown in many countries, changing security, benefits and bargaining power.
Demography reshapes supply
Ageing reduces the working-age population in some countries, while young populations in others need many new jobs each year.
Climate change and policy reallocate jobs
Heat, extreme weather and decarbonisation affect jobs in agriculture, construction, energy and transport, creating and ending work in different places.
How labour market change is modelled, measured and tested.
El modelo, sus supuestos, sus datos y su incertidumbre, en la forma en que un científico o un ingeniero los comprobaría. Las estructuras siguen métodos publicados. Los valores representados son ilustrativos, no hallazgos.
Modelo de sistema
The couplings between the systems in labour market change: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Labour markets change with shocks in every domain.
Findings are designed for the serie Country Systems Risk and Resilience. The ILO’s Trends 2025 report is the reference; occupations follow ISCO-08.
- Labour force survey data.
- Regional studies.
Qué se mide y con qué calidad.
Cada indicador lleva su unidad, su periodicidad, el tipo de fuente que lo respalda y la etiqueta de evidencia que llevaría un valor. No se muestran valores: un programa los aporta bajo su propia autoridad.
| Indicador | Unidad | Cadencia | Tipo de fuente | Etiqueta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment-to-population ratio | percent | trimestral | Labour force surveys | Estadísticas publicadas |
| Employment by sector and occupation | percent of employment | anual | Labour force surveys using ISCO | Estadísticas publicadas |
| Temporary employment | percent of employees | anual | Labour force surveys | Estadísticas publicadas |
| Labour underutilisation | percent of extended labour force | trimestral | Labour force surveys | Estadísticas publicadas |
| Job vacancy rate | percent of posts vacant | trimestral | Vacancy surveys | Estadísticas publicadas |
| Real median wage | currency units in constant prices | anual | Wage statistics | Estadísticas publicadas |
De dónde procede la evidencia.
Conjuntos de datos públicos y registros institucionales identificados, cada uno con su tipo de licencia. Las fuentes obtenidas por acuerdo solo se utilizan conforme a sus condiciones y nunca se republican.
| Fuente | Lo que aporta | Tipo de licencia |
|---|---|---|
| ILOSTAT | Employment, unemployment, underutilisation and wages | Abierta, CC BY 4.0 |
| OECD Employment Outlook and labour statistics | Labour market trends and policy analysis | Public, OECD terms |
| Eurostat labour force survey | Employment by sector, occupation and contract type | Open, Eurostat reuse policy |
| National labour force surveys | Employment structure | Licence per statistics office |
| Online job posting data summaries | Demand by occupation and skill | Commercial; public summaries (to check) |
Quién decide y a qué sirve la evidencia.
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Quién decide | La pregunta | Evidencia a la que sirve esta página |
|---|---|---|
| Labour ministries | Which sectors and groups need transition support | Change profiles; scenarios |
| Employers’ organisations and unions | What to negotiate on contracts and transitions | Job quality evidence |
| Public employment services | Where to focus job matching and training | Vacancy and underutilisation evidence |
Productos que genera este tema
- Labour market change profiles by sector and region
- Contract and job quality analyses
- Transition scenarios for climate-affected sectors
- Evidence notes for employment strategies
What labour economists ask.
- Which sectors and occupations are growing or shrinking, where and for whom?
- Is change driven by technology, trade, demand, demography or policy?
- Are displaced workers finding comparable work, and how long does it take?
- Are labour markets becoming more polarised between high- and low-paid work?
Drivers of structural change.
Technology changes the relative productivity of tasks, shifting demand towards skills that complement it. Trade and global value chains move production between countries. Demographic ageing shrinks labour supply in some economies and increases demand for care work. Consumer demand shifts as incomes rise. Public policy, from minimum wages to industrial strategy, shapes all of these.
Change is uneven. Earlier computerisation reduced demand for routine middle-skill jobs in many economies, a pattern called job polarisation. Workers displaced from declining industries often face lasting earnings losses, especially older workers and those in places with few alternatives.
Measuring change and its limits.
- 01
Labour force surveys and administrative data
Employment, hours and earnings by sector and occupation. Informal work is poorly captured in many countries.
- 02
Occupational risk indicators
Measures of exposure to automation, trade or climate built from task data, using economía y economía del desarrollo. Exposure is not the same as job loss.
- 03
Displacement studies
Following workers after job loss with linked data and econometría. Such data exist in relatively few countries.
- 04
Vacancy and online job data
Near-real-time signals of skill demand. Online postings over-represent some occupations and regions.
Cómo se estudia y lo que los métodos no pueden decir.
- 01Economía y economía del desarrolloAnálisis de la tecnología basado en tareas · Instituciones del mercado laboral · Economía de la transición justaAplicado aquí
- 02EconometríaEfectos de desplazamiento con datos vinculados · Evaluación de programas de formación · Proyecciones de la fuerza laboralAplicado aquí
- 03Ciencias sociales y del comportamientoEncuestas sobre la calidad del empleo · Estudios sobre el diálogo social · Investigación sobre la experiencia de los alumnosAplicado aquí
Where this page’s references lead.
Los organismos y documentos con los que se lee esta página. El estado y las ediciones cambian; cada enlace lleva al organismo emisor.
Preguntas y respuestas.
What is labour underutilisation?
What is ISCO?
How does climate change affect jobs?
What is job polarisation?
Why do displaced workers lose earnings for years?
Does the platform publish occupational risk rankings?
Can online job data replace surveys?
Aporte evidencia desde esta página.
serie Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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No envíe nunca datos personales, detalles sensibles de infraestructura ni nada que no tenga derecho a compartir. Un aporte se revisa antes de su uso; enviarlo no confiere autoría ni derechos editoriales, y el patrocinio nunca compra un hallazgo.
Aporte un método, un conjunto de datos o una pregunta.
La información y las consultas están abiertas hoy. Una consulta recibe una referencia e indica el siguiente paso; las solicitudes, pagos, asignaciones de cómputo y registros solo se abren cuando existen su equipo, sus condiciones y la capacidad de revisión.
Documentos jurídicos.
Los mapas, datos y cifras de este sitio se muestran como contexto e información general. No son consejos, pronósticos ni avisos; los límites de la información se exponen en los Descargos de responsabilidad y los Avisos sobre datos.