GCRI · Future of Work and Skills
Methods and uncertainty
The methods Future of Work and Skills relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
The order things happen in.
- 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
- 02Evidence checkevery value traced
- 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
- 04Editionpublished with its limits
- 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
The methods in use.
- 01Economics and development economicsTask-based analysis of technology · Labour market institutions · Just transition economicsApplied here
- 02Artificial intelligence and machine learningSkills extraction from job postings · Job matching in employment servicesApplied here
- 03Robotics and automationRobot adoption and employment · Safety in human-robot work · Job redesign around robotsApplied here
- 04Social and behavioural scienceJob quality surveys · Social dialogue studies · Learner experience researchApplied here
- 05EconometricsDisplacement effects with linked data · Training programme evaluation · Workforce projectionsApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- EconomicsRole hereEconomics explains how labour markets allocate work and pay, how technology and trade change demand for skills, and how institutions such as minimum wages and social protection shape outcomes.Checks appliedContext fit; Comparative evidence; Distributional reporting
- Ai MLRole hereArtificial intelligence and machine learning are both a driver of change in work and a tool for studying it.Checks appliedExtraction accuracy; Fairness testing; Representativeness
- RoboticsRole hereRobotics and automation change physical work in manufacturing, logistics, agriculture and care.Checks appliedIdentification strategy; Injury coding; Case study triangulation
- Social scienceRole hereSocial and behavioural science studies how workers experience change, how firms adopt technology, and how social dialogue shapes outcomes.Checks appliedEthics review; Sample coverage; Triangulation
- EconometricsRole hereEconometrics estimates relationships in labour data: how technology, training and policies affect employment and wages.Checks appliedComparison group validity; Projection back-testing; Robustness
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
Where uncertainty in work and skills analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure measures | Depend on task definitions | Method and taxonomy stated |
| Adoption | Depends on cost and regulation | Scenarios |
| Labour data | Informal employment poorly measured | Coverage stated |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Are the methods open?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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