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GCRIFuture of Work and SkillsIn development
Methods and uncertainty

Methods and uncertainty

The methods Future of Work and Skills relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.

Make an enquiry Back to Research and evidence
Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Work and skills, Society and human development, Artificial intelligence
  1. 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
  2. 02Evidence checkevery value traced
  3. 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
  4. 04Editionpublished with its limits
  5. 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
01In brief

The short answer.

The Future of Work and Skills methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them economics and development economics, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and robotics and automation, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.

02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Methods and uncertainty: systematic evidence synthesisA question is framed with its owner and a protocol registered; records are searched, screened and checked for eligibility by two reviewers; data are extracted, synthesised and graded for certainty before a brief is written. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

03Geography

People and exposure in Southeast Asia.

Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, framed on Southeast Asia; each layer is a dated NASA product.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, framed on Southeast Asia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Natural EarthSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026

04Methods

The methods in use.

  1. Economics and development economicsTask-based analysis of technology · Labour market institutions · Just transition economicsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. Artificial intelligence and machine learningSkills extraction from job postings · Job matching in employment servicesApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. Robotics and automationRobot adoption and employment · Safety in human-robot work · Job redesign around robotsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  4. Social and behavioural scienceJob quality surveys · Social dialogue studies · Learner experience researchApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  5. EconometricsDisplacement effects with linked data · Training programme evaluation · Workforce projectionsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
05Method register

Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.

06Uncertainty

Where uncertainty in work and skills analysis comes from, and how it is shown.

SourceWhy it matters hereHow it is reported
Exposure measuresDepend on task definitionsMethod and taxonomy stated
AdoptionDepends on cost and regulationScenarios
Labour dataInformal employment poorly measuredCoverage stated
07Uncertainty

How uncertainty is reported.

  1. 01

    State assumptions

    Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.

  2. 02

    Quantify where possible

    Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.

  3. 03

    Validate and compare

    Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.

  4. 04

    Publish limits

    What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.

08Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Uncertainty quantificationCharacterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.
Sensitivity analysisRepeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them.
Model validationComparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use.
Economics and development economicsEconomics and development economics study how societies produce, distribute and consume resources and how living standards change.
09Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Are the methods open?
Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.
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