Task-based analysis of technology
Occupations are broken into tasks and matched with what technologies can do, to estimate which tasks may be automated or augmented and how wages may respond.
GCRI · Future of Work and Skills
Labour economics
Economics explains how labour markets allocate work and pay, how technology and trade change demand for skills, and how institutions such as minimum wages and social protection shape outcomes. In this field it frames the questions about jobs, wages and transitions.
01Contents
Labour economics in five parts.
02Application
What economics and development economics does here.
Economics and development economics study how societies produce, distribute and consume resources and how living standards change. They estimate the costs of shocks and the trade-offs among policy responses. In work and skills, society and human development and artificial intelligence, economic analysis quantifies indirect losses as shocks spread through supply chains and labour markets. It supports prioritising investment in prevention and recovery. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Labour market institutions
Effects of minimum wages, collective bargaining and employment protection on employment, wages and job quality are analysed with comparative evidence.
Just transition economics
Job losses and gains from decarbonisation are traced by sector and region, with costs to displaced workers and communities estimated.
03Monitor
Econometric model.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Econometric model
Future of work · Labour economics · Run R-4567
Estimates stableGCRI · Future of Work and Skills
Estimates
robust standard errors
| Task exposure to automation | 0.16 | 0.16 | [−0.5, 0.4] | No |
| Vacancy-to-unemployed ratio | 0.38 | 0.19 | [−0.1, 0.2] | No |
| Training participation | 0.17 | 0.13 | [−0.5, 0.9] | No |
| Occupational injury rate | −0.20 | 0.07 | [−0.6, 0.3] | No |
Method card
- Method
- Economics and development economics
- Sample
- 8154 obs
- Design
- panel, fixed effects
- Label
- MODELLED
Residuals by group
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by economics and development economics on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Occupational task data | Task content | REPORTED |
| Labour force surveys | Employment and wages | Published statistics |
| Sector employment data | Transitions | Published statistics |
05Methods and evidence
How labour economics is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in labour economics: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Validation
How results are checked.
Models are assessed against historical episodes and out-of-sample data. Parameter estimates are compared across studies and identification strategies.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Context fit | Task data from one country are checked for fit before use in another |
| Comparative evidence | Institutional effects are compared across countries and periods |
| Distributional reporting | Results are reported by group, region and wage level |
Equilibrium models may understate disruption and nonlinear cascades. Informal economies and non-market losses are poorly measured.
07Process
How the process runs.
Process
Labour economics: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Economic Development stewards economics and development economics for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
10Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
11Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of economics and development economics in this field?
Equilibrium models may understate disruption and nonlinear cascades. Informal economies and non-market losses are poorly measured.
How are results checked?
Models are assessed against historical episodes and out-of-sample data. Parameter estimates are compared across studies and identification strategies.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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