GCRI · Labs
Future of health and biotechnology labs
Health and biotechnology research moves from bench to animal to human to population, and each step has its own ethics, safety and evidence rules. One Health links that chain to animals and environments, where many emerging pathogens begin. This lab studies how biomedical and biotech innovation is designed, contained, evaluated and translated, and what ethics committees, biosafety committees and regulators need before they let it move on.
Future of health and biotechnology labs on the record.
Future of health and biotechnology labs: how the risk develops.
Human health, One Health and biotech. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Translation loses signal
Results in cells and animals often fail in people because of species differences, small samples, unblinded studies and selective publication. Weak preclinical evidence can send trials forward that expose participants without good reason.
Dual use and biosafety
Techniques that enhance, synthesise or edit organisms can serve harm as well as health. Containment, oversight of dual-use research and screening of synthetic DNA orders manage risks that cross laboratory walls.
One Health spillover
Pathogens and resistance genes move between animals, people and environments through farming, trade, water and wildlife contact. Research that studies one host alone can miss the pathway that matters.
Unequal evidence
Trials and datasets underrepresent many populations, regions and conditions. Treatments and diagnostic models built on that evidence can perform worse for groups that were not studied, and the gap is often invisible in pooled results.
Environmental exposure worldwide.
Population density, daytime surface heat and haze across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Environmental exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite measure of haze, smoke and dust through the whole air column on the day shown; an exposure indicator, not ground-level PM2.5, an air quality index or a health warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-10
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Environmental exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026
The health and bio labs follow biosafety rules in every experiment.
Findings feed the Labs Evidence series. Work follows the WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual (2020) and WHO’s 2022 life-sciences framework; no hazardous detail is published.
- Evaluation protocols.
- Biosafety lessons.
Testbed operations.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Testbed operations
Future of health and biotechnology labs · Field lab coast · Campaign 3
Sensor deployment
illustrative coastline
Sensors
| S-01 tide | 95 | 0.2 | Nominal |
| S-04 salinity | 85 | 0.7 | Recalibrate |
| S-07 wave | 90 | 0.1 | Nominal |
Sensor vs reference
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trial registration before enrolment | percent of trials | annual | Trial registries | Published statistics |
| Results reported within the required period | percent of completed trials | annual | Registry results sections | Published statistics |
| ARRIVE essential items reported | percent of items | per study | Animal study reporting audits | OBSERVED |
| Randomisation and blinding in preclinical studies | percent of studies | annual | Systematic reviews of animal research | ESTIMATED |
| Enrolment relative to the affected population | ratio of enrolled share to affected share, by group | per trial | Trial enrolment data | REPORTED |
| National dual-use research oversight | policy in place, yes or no | annual | Biosafety governance mapping | Published statistics |
| Health research funding by disease | national currency at constant prices | annual | Funding trackers | REPORTED |
Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.
Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Growth of pressure
- 6.0% a year
- Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
- 4.0% a year
- Investment response to perceived pressure
- 20%
- Perception delay
- 4.0 years
- Tipping threshold of pressure
- 60 index
- Amplification past the threshold
- 2.0 times
- Years simulated
- 50 years
Readouts
- Peak pressure
- 113 index
- Capacity at the end
- 186 index
- Years over the threshold
- 15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Pressure | Capacity | Perceived |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
Methods
- System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
- Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
- Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs in Labs
- Built in Labs in Foundry
- Tested at Labs in Universe
- Codified in Data and Evidence in Standards
- Published in Labs in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| ClinicalTrials.gov (US National Library of Medicine) | Registered trials, enrolment and results | Public domain |
| WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform | Records from primary national registries | Free, WHO terms of use |
| Clinical Trials Information System (European Medicines Agency) | Authorised trials in the EU and their results | Public, EMA terms |
| WHO Global Observatory on Health R&D | Health research funding, trials and products by disease and region | WHO terms, CC BY-NC-SA IGO |
| Europe PMC | Biomedical literature with open full text and links to data | Free access, licence per article |
| Global BioLabs (King’s College London and George Mason University) | High-containment laboratories and national biosafety and biosecurity policies | Free access, attribution |
| G-FINDER (Policy Cures Research) | Funding for research on neglected and emerging infectious diseases | Free access, terms of use |
Model future of health and biotechnology labs as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Global and systemic risk
- Compound and cascading hazard standards Mechanism
- Financial stability and prudential risk Mechanism
- Supply chain and trade risk Cascade
- Future generations and long-term risk Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H120Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)NRS-C6Systemic and cascading riskNRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H94Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)NRS-H60Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
Observation
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Labs prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Research ethics committees | Whether a study with human participants may begin or continue | Protocol, prior evidence, risks and benefits, consent materials, data monitoring plan |
| Animal welfare bodies | Whether animal use is justified, minimised and refined | Harm-benefit assessment, sample size rationale, alternatives considered under the Three Rs |
| Institutional biosafety committees and national biosecurity authorities | Whether work at a given containment level or with dual-use potential may proceed | Risk assessment, containment, training, oversight and screening arrangements |
| Medicines regulators | Whether a product’s evidence supports authorisation for the intended population | Trial results, representation of the intended population, preclinical package |
Outputs this topic produces
- Preclinical protocols built to ARRIVE, with randomisation, blinding and sample size planned
- Trial protocols to SPIRIT and reports to CONSORT, registered before enrolment
- Biosafety and dual-use risk assessments filed with the institutional committee
- One Health study designs that sample people, animals and environment together
The sector signature of future of health and biotechnology labs.
The sectors future of health and biotechnology labs touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Health and its partners
Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.42 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Food → Health · nutrition0.7
- Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
- Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
What experts ask in health and biology.
- How do environmental changes, such as heat, flooding or land use, change disease risk?
- Where do human, animal and environmental health meet, and where does surveillance miss signals?
- Which interventions reduce transmission or harm, and how robust is the evidence?
- How can biological research and biotechnology be pursued safely and securely?
- How do health systems cope when other systems, such as power or water, fail?
How future of health and biotechnology labs is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Model, equations and assumptions
The model structure used for future of health and biotechnology labs, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacityEAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pkxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Assumption | Why it is made | How it is tested |
|---|---|---|
| Hazard and exposure are independent within an event | Keeps the loss integral tractable | Compare with a copula fit on joint records |
| Couplings are linear near the operating point | Lets shocks propagate through A | Perturb beyond the linear range and compare |
| Vulnerability curves transfer between places | Local curves are rarely available | Validate against observed losses where they exist |
- Inputs
- versioned datasets with provenance
- Outputs
- distributions, never single numbers
- Code
- released with the model card and tests
- Reproduction
- same data, code, environment and seed
Mechanisms that link health to other systems.
The One Health approach recognises that human, animal and ecosystem health are interdependent. Many emerging infectious diseases originate in animals, and spillover risk is shaped by land-use change, wildlife trade, livestock systems and climate. Antimicrobial resistance develops wherever antimicrobials are used, in human medicine, agriculture and the environment, and spreads through water, food and travel.
Heat is a direct health hazard, especially for older people, outdoor workers and those with chronic illness, and it interacts with air pollution and power outages. Flooding and drought affect water quality and sanitation, raising the risk of waterborne disease. Health facilities depend on electricity, water, supply chains and staff who can reach work.
Biotechnology brings new tools for diagnosis, vaccines and treatment, and new risks if techniques are misused or containment fails. Biosafety concerns accidental harm; biosecurity concerns deliberate misuse.
Methods, data and their limits.
- 01
Epidemiological studies
Cohort, case-control and time-series designs relating exposures to outcomes. Confounding and reporting gaps limit causal claims.
- 02
Integrated surveillance
Linking human, animal and environmental data, including wastewater monitoring. Coverage is uneven and data sharing is often restricted.
- 03
Laboratory work
Research under biosafety rules and containment levels set by competent authorities. Laboratory results require field confirmation.
- 04
Modelling
Transmission and exposure models using probability and statistics. Models depend on uncertain parameters and behaviour.
No Labs activity involving pathogens, human participants or animals proceeds without approval from the competent ethics and biosafety bodies for that study and site.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Causal inference and impact evaluationRandomised pilots and stepped rollouts · Quasi-experimental programme evaluationApplied here
- 02Probability and statisticsSample size and power planning · Meta-analysis with bias assessmentApplied here
- 03Uncertainty quantification and model validationMeasurement uncertainty budgets · Sensitivity analysis of simulation modelsApplied here
- 04Artificial intelligence and machine learningAssisted screening for systematic reviews · Surrogate models to guide experimentsApplied here
- 05Systems engineeringRequirements to verification traceability · Stage-gate readiness reviewsApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
What is One Health?
What is dual-use research of concern?
Why do treatments that work in animals fail in people?
Does Labs operate high-containment laboratories?
Is clinical research part of these labs?
How is dual-use research handled?
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