GCRI · Registry
Kelas bukti
Not all evidence carries the same weight. A peer-reviewed trial, a published statistic, a model output, a press statement and an owner’s own declaration can all support the same sentence, yet each warrants a different degree of reliance. Evidence classes make that difference visible. This page sets out how records are classed by evidence type, how confidence is stated, how reliance limits are set, and why claims drift beyond what their evidence supports.
Evidence classes on the record.
Evidence classes: how the risk develops.
Evidence type, reliance limits and confidence. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Class collapse
When observed, modelled, reported and declared evidence share one field with no label, a reader cannot tell a measurement from a projection or a self-assessment. The weakest source then borrows the authority of the strongest.
Claim creep
A finding moves from a cautious report to an abstract, a summary and a headline, losing qualifiers at each step. The claim widens while its evidence stays the same, until it exceeds what any source supports.
Single-source dependence
Many records rest on one upstream source cited by several intermediaries. Counting the intermediaries makes the evidence look plural and independent when it is one source repeated.
Confidence without basis
A confidence word such as likely or high is attached without saying what it rests on. Readers in different fields interpret the word differently, so one label carries different meanings to an editor, a funder and a court.
Register catatan.
Layar yang akan digunakan sebuah tim untuk mengikuti subjek ini: ukuran, status, dan keputusannya. Nama adalah contoh dan nilai bersifat ilustratif.
Buku besar rekaman
Evidence classes · Registry · Ledger head 3142470
- Catatan terdaftar5701
- Asal-usul lengkap, % catatan92Normal
- Koreksi terbuka10Pantau
- Penahanan hak4Info
Rekaman terbaru
| NX-R-12221 | Status program | v2 | 4472615 | Terdaftar |
| NX-P-88287 | Publikasi | v3 | 1324692 | Terdaftar |
| NX-E-72567 | Catatan bukti | v4 | 4410118 | Koreksi terbuka |
| NX-C-27773 | Partisipasi | v1 | 7438493 | Penahanan hak |
Riwayat versi
- v1NEWTerdaftar beserta sumbernya
- v2FIXUnit dikoreksi, alasan dicatat
- v3OPENKoreksi diminta
Evidence classes mean the same thing in every domain.
- AirDalam praktikA flood extent from radar is estimated, not observed.What a reader can checkLabel with each map
- EnergiDalam praktikA capacity projection is a scenario.What a reader can checkScenario label
- KesehatanDalam praktikCase counts are published statistics with reporting lags.What a reader can checkLag stated
Labels follow the IPCC uncertainty guidance (2010) in spirit and apply to every series in Laporan. The proposed Nexus Standards would carry the label in each record’s metadata.
- Cases where a label was misapplied.
- Proposals to refine a class.
How evidence classes is modelled, measured and tested.
Model, asumsi, data, dan ketidakpastiannya, dalam bentuk yang akan diperiksa ilmuwan atau insinyur. Strukturnya mengikuti metode yang dipublikasikan. Nilai yang digambar bersifat ilustratif, bukan temuan.
Set data dan asal-usul
The data classes behind evidence classes and what is recorded about each before it is used.
| Kelas data | Asal-usul tercatat | Resolusi dinyatakan | Lisensi diperiksa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citra satelit, optik dan radar | sensor, tingkat pemrosesan, tanggal akuisisi | ukuran piksel dan kunjungan ulang | per adegan |
| Reanalisis dan keluaran model iklim | model, eksperimen, anggota, versi | grid dan langkah waktu | per rilis |
| Sensor dan alat ukur in situ | stasiun, instrumen, catatan kalibrasi | titik dan laju pengambilan sampel | per jaringan |
| Keterpaparan penduduk dan aset | metode, tahun terbit, sumber masukan | ukuran sel dan satuan | per rilis |
| Batas dan geografi acuan | produsen, edisi, tanggal | skala | per edisi |
- Garis keturunan
- Catatan W3C PROV dari sumber hingga gambar
- Prinsip
- FAIR: dapat ditemukan, dapat diakses, interoperabel, dapat digunakan ulang
- Kesenjangan
- ditampilkan sebagai hilang, tidak pernah diisi diam-diam
Apa yang diukur, dan seberapa baik.
Setiap indikator membawa satuan, frekuensi, jenis sumber di baliknya, dan label bukti yang akan dibawa suatu nilai. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan: sebuah program menyediakannya berdasarkan wewenangnya sendiri.
| Indikator | Unit | Kadensi | Jenis sumber | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assertions with an evidence class | share of assertions | setiap bulan | Schema validation | TERAMATI |
| Assertions by evidence class | count by class | setiap kuartal | Registry records | TERAMATI |
| Assertions resting on a single source | share of assertions | setiap kuartal | Provenance graph | TERAMATI |
| Confidence statements with a stated basis | share of confidence statements | setiap kuartal | Curation review | TERAMATI |
| Class reassignments after review | jumlah | setiap kuartal | Review records | TERAMATI |
| Agreement between independent classifiers | agreement coefficient | per audit | Double-coding audit | ESTIMASI |
| Claims exceeding their evidence class | jumlah | setiap bulan | Claim-to-evidence audit | TERAMATI |
Asal bukti.
Set data publik bernama dan catatan kelembagaan, masing-masing dengan kelas lisensinya. Sumber berdasarkan perjanjian hanya digunakan sesuai ketentuannya dan tidak pernah diterbitkan ulang.
| Sumber | Apa yang diberikannya | Kelas lisensi |
|---|---|---|
| GRADE handbook | A method for rating the certainty of evidence and the strength of recommendations | Free to read, GRADE Working Group terms |
| Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions | Methods for assessing risk of bias and synthesising evidence | Free to read online, Cochrane copyright |
| Catatan panduan IPCC tentang perlakuan ketidakpastian yang konsisten | Bahasa terkalibrasi untuk keyakinan dan kemungkinan dalam penilaian | Free to read, IPCC terms |
| Evidence and Conclusion Ontology (ECO) | A controlled vocabulary of evidence types used in scientific curation | Open ontology, free to reuse |
| Oxford CEBM levels of evidence | A hierarchy of evidence types for clinical questions | Free to read, attribution |
| Campbell Collaboration methods guidance | Methods for evidence synthesis in social and economic policy | Free to read, Campbell terms |
Siapa yang memutuskan, dan apa yang dilayani bukti.
Registry prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Siapa yang memutuskan | Pertanyaannya | Bukti yang dilayani halaman ini |
|---|---|---|
| Guideline panels and systematic reviewers | How much weight an assertion can bear in a recommendation | Evidence class, certainty rating and independence of the sources behind it |
| Funders and assessment panels | Whether reported outcomes are evidenced or only declared | Class labels separating observed outcomes from self-reported and planned ones |
| Journal editors | Whether a manuscript’s claims match the class of evidence it cites | Evidence class of each cited record and any single-source dependence |
| Regulators and public bodies | Whether evidence is strong enough to justify a rule or an intervention | Class, confidence basis and reliance limits for each supporting record |
Keluaran yang dihasilkan topik ini
- An evidence class assigned to each assertion and carried into every view and export
- A glossary of classes stating what each supports and what it does not
- Reliance notes marking assertions that rest on a single source
- Confidence statements with their stated basis and the reviewer who set them
What experts ask about evidence types.
- How should a classification separate the source of a claim from its reliability?
- How can a label survive aggregation, when estimates are mixed with observations?
- How should confidence be communicated to non-specialists without misleading them?
- When is a scenario mistaken for a forecast, and how is that prevented?
- What should a record say when the evidence type is unknown?
How evidence loses its label.
Evidence is most often misused not because it is wrong but because it is read as something it is not. A modelled estimate printed in a table beside published statistics acquires their apparent authority. A scenario designed to explore a possibility is quoted as a prediction. Assessment bodies in climate science, public health and statistics have each developed calibrated language for confidence and likelihood for this reason.
The Registry uses the evidence labels shared across the programme: Observed, Published statistics, Institution-reported, Estimated, Modelled, Forecast, Scenario, Expert judgement and Unknown. A label names a source type. “Published statistics” means published by the responsible agency; it is not a claim of endorsement. Estimates stay labelled as estimates and never replace published figures.
Classifying and qualifying evidence.
- 01
Jenis sumber
The label records how the evidence was produced, separately from any judgement of quality.
- 02
Reliance limits
Each record states the uses it can and cannot support, such as the geographic scale or period for which it holds.
- 03
Confidence
Where a method yields uncertainty, the record carries it, drawing on statistical practice from the STEM Commons. See rekayasa data, interoperabilitas, dan pengelolaan for the data side.
- 04
Batasan
Any classification simplifies. Mixed evidence needs the most cautious label of its parts, which can understate strong findings, and labels depend on honest declaration by issuers.
Cara hal ini dikaji, dan apa yang tidak dapat dinyatakan metodenya.
- 01Rekayasa data, interoperabilitas, dan pengelolaan dataPenyerapan data tervalidasi skema · Rekonsiliasi pengenal persisten · Perekaman silsilah dalam alur pemrosesanDiterapkan di sini
- 02Keamanan siber dan kriptografiRiwayat catatan yang menunjukkan perubahan · Ekspor dan rilis yang ditandatangani · Pemodelan ancaman pada jalur penyuntinganDiterapkan di sini
- 03Identitas digital dan sistem digital publikAutentikasi dan kewenangan penerbit · Disambiguasi kontributor oleh yang bersangkutanDiterapkan di sini
Where this page’s references lead.
Badan dan dokumen yang menjadi acuan halaman ini. Status dan edisi berubah; setiap tautan menuju badan penerbitnya.
Tanya jawab.
Is a declared assertion worthless?
Why can confidence words mislead?
Can an assertion’s class change?
Why are many citations not many sources?
Is “published statistics” a stronger label than Modelled?
Why keep an Unknown label?
Can a record carry more than one label?
Kontribusikan bukti dari halaman ini.
Laporan is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- SurelGerbang GW-GCRIKirim dari halaman iniBukti, koreksi, kasus, metode, tinjauan, terjemahan, atau masukan profil. Kiriman tiba dengan label halaman ini, sehingga editor pemiliknya menerimanya.
- ZenodoDeposit terbukaDeposit dan ajukan ke komunitasTerbitkan catatan Anda sendiri di Zenodo dengan ORCID iD Anda, lalu ajukan ke komunitas Reports di sana. Kurator meninjaunya; DOI tetap milik Anda.
- LaporanGCRILihat semua cara berkontribusiJenis kontribusi, cara masing-masing ditinjau, kredit yang Anda terima, lisensinya, dan apa yang tidak pernah diterima.
Jangan pernah mengirim data pribadi, rincian infrastruktur sensitif, atau apa pun yang tidak berhak Anda bagikan. Kontribusi ditinjau sebelum digunakan. Mengirimkannya tidak memberikan hak kepenulisan atau editorial, dan sponsor tidak pernah membeli sebuah temuan.
Bawa metode, dataset, atau pertanyaan.
Informasi dan pertanyaan sudah terbuka hari ini. Sebuah pertanyaan menerima nomor referensi dan menyebutkan langkah berikutnya; lamaran, pembayaran, alokasi komputasi, dan pendaftaran hanya dibuka ketika tim, ketentuan, dan kapasitas tinjauannya tersedia.
Dokumen hukum.
Peta, data, dan gambar di situs ini ditampilkan untuk konteks dan informasi umum. Semua itu bukan nasihat, prakiraan, atau peringatan; batasan informasinya dijelaskan dalam Penafian dan Pemberitahuan Data.