GCRI · Future of Work and Skills
Work and social protection
Social protection shields workers and families from loss of income through unemployment, sickness, injury, maternity, disability and old age. Coverage is far from universal, and informal, platform and self-employed workers are often left out. This page sets out how social protection supports workers through change, how coverage and adequacy are measured, and what evidence serves the ministries and social security institutions responsible.
Work and social protection on the record.
Work and social protection: how the risk develops.
Income, inequality and transition safeguards. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Coverage follows formal employment
Contributory schemes reach workers with formal contracts. Informal and self-employed workers often have no unemployment or sickness cover.
Protection smooths transitions
Unemployment benefits and active labour market programmes let displaced workers search and retrain rather than take any job.
Adequacy matters as much as coverage
Benefits that are too low or too short leave workers in poverty even when they are covered.
Systems must scale in shocks
Systems that can expand quickly, as many did during the pandemic, protect more people in crises.
People and exposure in Southeast Asia.
Population density, night lights and land cover over Southeast Asia, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
People and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- MODIS Terra EVI (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite vegetation index for the 8 days to the date shown, a habitat condition indicator; not a measure of species or biodiversity.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
People and exposure, framed on Southeast Asia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (9 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
Social protection cushions workers against shocks from every domain.
Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. ILO Recommendation No. 202 (2012) sets social protection floors; just transition guidelines (2015) apply to climate policy.
- Programme evaluations.
- Coverage data.
Skills and exposure console.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Skills and exposure console
Work and social protection · Labour market A · Year 2
Occupations by exposure
| Clerical support | 29,724 | 0.7 | Substitute | Data operations |
| Machine operators | 55,701 | 0.7 | Mixed | Robot maintenance |
| Care workers | 29,734 | 0.1 | Complement | Upskill |
| Analysts | 18,145 | 0.5 | Complement | Upskill |
Vacancies by skill
Reskilling pathway
- Assessskills profile
- Matchtarget role
- Train18 weeks
- Placeemployer
- Follow up6 months
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population covered by at least one social protection benefit | percent | per assessment | ILO World Social Protection data | Published statistics |
| Unemployed receiving benefits | percent of unemployed | annual | Social security records | Published statistics |
| Employment injury coverage | percent of labour force | per assessment | ILO data | Published statistics |
| Pension coverage | percent above statutory pensionable age receiving a pension | per assessment | ILO data | Published statistics |
| Benefit replacement rate | percent of previous earnings | per assessment | Benefit rules and models | ESTIMATED |
| Spending on active labour market programmes | percent of GDP | annual | Labour market programme statistics | Published statistics |
Model work and social protection as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Societal and information risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Civil unrest
- Supply-chain disruption (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-12Software, model and AI/ML artefacts (supply chain, model cards, dataset sheets)NRS-H117Hazard family: Social cohesion and atrocity risk (NHS-1 soc.cohesion)NRS-X7Information integrity and public trustNRS-D2Society, inclusion and human development riskNRS-H52Hazard family: Information-integrity attacks (NHS-1 cyber.integrity)NRS-H79Hazard family: Mental health crises (NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H59Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)
Observation
- WorldPop gridded population (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- Global SDG Indicators Database (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Proportion of people living below 50 per cent of median income
- Number of countries that adopt and implement guarantees for public access to information
Example geography
- The Horn of Africa: 253 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| ILO World Social Protection Report and data | Coverage and spending by function and country | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| OECD tax-benefit models and labour market programme data | Benefit adequacy and programme spending | Public, OECD terms |
| World Bank ASPIRE database | Social protection and labour programme data | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| ISSA social security country profiles | Social security programmes worldwide | Public, ISSA terms (to check) |
| National social security administrative data | Beneficiaries and payments | Licence per institution |
How work and social protection is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in work and social protection: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of labour and social affairs | How to extend coverage and improve adequacy | Coverage and adequacy profiles |
| Social security institutions | How to include informal and self-employed workers | Coverage analyses |
| Finance ministries | How to fund protection sustainably | Spending and coverage evidence |
Outputs this topic produces
- Coverage and adequacy profiles by worker type
- Analyses of protection for informal and platform workers
- Reviews of how systems scale up in shocks
- Evidence notes for social protection reform
What researchers ask about protection.
- Who is covered by unemployment, sickness and pension schemes, and who falls through the gaps?
- How well do benefits replace lost income during transitions?
- Do active labour market programmes help people back into good work?
- How do protection systems affect inequality and resilience to shocks?
Gaps in protection.
Many social insurance schemes were built for long-term employees with a single employer. Self-employed, part-time, temporary and platform workers often contribute less and are entitled to less, or nothing. Large informal sectors in many countries mean most workers have no contributory protection at all.
When shocks hit, such as a recession, a pandemic or a regional plant closure, gaps in protection turn job loss into poverty, with lasting effects on health and children’s prospects. Well-designed systems act as automatic stabilisers for the economy as well as safeguards for households.
Evidence on protection.
- 01
Coverage analysis
Measuring who is eligible and who actually receives benefits, using economics and development economics. Take-up is often lower than eligibility.
- 02
Microsimulation
Modelling the effects of benefit and tax rules on household incomes. Models depend on survey data quality.
- 03
Programme evaluation
Assessing active labour market programmes and income support, using econometrics. Effects vary by design and context.
- 04
Inequality measurement
Tracking income and wealth distribution, with social and behavioural science. Top incomes and informal income are hard to measure.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Economics and development economicsTask-based analysis of technology · Labour market institutions · Just transition economicsApplied here
- 02EconometricsDisplacement effects with linked data · Training programme evaluation · Workforce projectionsApplied here
- 03Social and behavioural scienceJob quality surveys · Social dialogue studies · Learner experience researchApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
What is a social protection floor?
Why are informal workers often unprotected?
What are active labour market programmes?
What are automatic stabilisers?
Is universal basic income the answer to automation?
How are platform workers protected?
What makes protection portable?
Does the platform recommend policies?
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