GCRI · Future of Work and Skills
Reviewed models and scenarios
Model descriptions for Future of Work and Skills are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
The workspace for reviewed models and scenarios.
Build workspace
Future of work · Reviewed models · Run R-0351 · Example interface, not a record
Runs
same inputs, versioned
| R-0517 | Economics | v4.4 | 0.58 | Running |
| R-0488 | Artificial intelligence | v6.3 | 0.85 | Drift |
| R-9721 | Robotics and automation | v7.2 | 0.72 | Failed test |
| R-5577 | Social and behavioural | v5.3 | 0.64 | Drift |
Model card
- Method
- Economics and development economics
- Inputs
- Labour force survey, Vacancy data
- Validation
- held-out period, skill reported
- Label
- MODELLED
Run log
- 00:00:55InfoIngest labour force survey
- 00:03:12InfoSchema and licence checks passed
- 00:05:40WarnGap filled by interpolation, flagged
- 00:14:03DoneCalibration complete
- 00:27:55GateIndependent test queued
Future of Work and Skills · Build workspace. Build workspace: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
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The kinds of model work and skills work relies on.
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Task exposure models | Occupation-task matching | Exposure to automation | Comparison of methods |
| Labour market models | Search and matching models | Transitions | Labour force data |
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01HazardDataset · Labour ministryThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02ExposureDataset · Labour ministryThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03SensitivityDataset · Labour ministryThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Labour ministryThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · Labour ministryRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06VulnerabilityComponent · Labour ministryThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07RiskModel · Future of Work and SkillsRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · Labour ministryRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Residual riskRecord · Labour ministryThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Labour ministryThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
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