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GCRI · Future of Work and Skills

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for Future of Work and Skills are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

01Workspace

The workspace for reviewed models and scenarios.

Build workspace

Future of work · Reviewed models · Run R-0351 · Example interface, not a record

Run in progressGCRI · Future of Work and Skills

Runs

same inputs, versioned

R-0517Economicsv4.40.58Running
R-0488Artificial intelligencev6.30.85Drift
R-9721Robotics and automationv7.20.72Failed test
R-5577Social and behaviouralv5.30.64Drift

Model card

Method
Economics and development economics
Inputs
Labour force survey, Vacancy data
Validation
held-out period, skill reported
Label
MODELLED

Run log

  1. 00:00:55InfoIngest labour force survey
  2. 00:03:12InfoSchema and licence checks passed
  3. 00:05:40WarnGap filled by interpolation, flagged
  4. 00:14:03DoneCalibration complete
  5. 00:27:55GateIndependent test queued
Build workspace.Illustrative interface; not live data.

Future of Work and Skills · Build workspace. Build workspace: example names and illustrative values, not a record.

02What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
03Model classes

The kinds of model work and skills work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersValidation
Task exposure modelsOccupation-task matchingExposure to automationComparison of methods
Labour market modelsSearch and matching modelsTransitionsLabour force data
04Process

How the process runs.

Process explorer · Process

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 stages

Process

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01HazardDataset · Labour ministryThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02ExposureDataset · Labour ministryThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03SensitivityDataset · Labour ministryThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Labour ministryThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Labour ministryRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06VulnerabilityComponent · Labour ministryThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07RiskModel · Future of Work and SkillsRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Labour ministryRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09Residual riskRecord · Labour ministryThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Labour ministryThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

06Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

07Questions

Questions and answers.

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Future of Work and Skills

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