China: country profile

01Overview

China enters 2027 with 1,404.89 million people, a population that fell by 3.39 million in 2025 and in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over [1]. The climate is moving visibly: 2025 tied 2024 as the warmest year since 1951 at 10.9 °C, the national average of hot days was the highest since 1961, and the rainy season in North China set records for both rainfall and duration [3]. Meteorological disasters left 628 people dead or missing and cost 231.78 billion yuan in 2025, fewer than the 2015 to 2024 average [3], yet the 2021 Henan flood, with 398 people dead or missing, shows what one extreme event can do on a dense plain [14]. Coal still supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% and reached about 1,842 GW of capacity [1] [4]. Emissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024 in the EDGAR database, and the 2035 contribution aims for net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, a peak year that has not yet been established [9] [12] [13]. Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025 [1], and protected areas covered 15.6% of land [7]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for China’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, flood, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Series that were not retrieved by evidence close, among them national water use, heat deaths, insurance cover and soybean imports, appear as designed empty states, not estimates. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, end-2025

1,404.89 million

aged 65 or over, 2025

15.9 %

emissions excl. land use, 2024

15,536 Mt CO₂e

coal share of electricity, 2025

54.8 %

net energy imports as share of energy use, 2024

24.0 %

provincial-level on the mainland

31 units

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The China matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Record heat and hot-day extremes

  Estimated EQL 4

  Driver

  warming and persistent heat processes

  Exposure

  central and eastern provinces; 11 units had record annual temperature [3]

  Vulnerability

  older population (15.9% aged 65 or over) [1]

  Capacity

  not bound: heat alert and cooling-shelter records

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT → ENE peak

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Extreme rain and river flooding

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  more intense rainfall and long rainy seasons [3]

  Exposure

  dense plains, reservoirs and underground spaces [14]

  Vulnerability

  drainage and reservoir condition not bound

  Capacity

  red rainstorm warnings issued in 2021 [14]

  Cascade

  CLI → WAT → INF, HLT

  Horizon

  annual

• Strong earthquakes on the plateau and in basins

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  continental collision tectonics

  Exposure

  Dingri 2025: 126 deaths by the evening of the event [15]

  Vulnerability

  building condition by province not bound

  Capacity

  not bound: seismic code and response records

  Cascade

  SEI → INF, HLT

  Horizon

  30 years

• Coal-led power under rising demand and import exposure

  Estimated EQL 3

  Driver

  demand growth and heat peaks

  Exposure

  power, industry, households

  Vulnerability

  coal 54.8% of electricity; net energy imports 24.0% of energy use [4] [10]

  Capacity

  1,842 GW of wind and solar installed [1]

  Cascade

  ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO

  Horizon

  1 to 5 years

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of China’s risk: heat and rain extremes are rising, loss builds fast on dense plains, and an older population changes who is exposed. Evidence is strongest for climate monitoring, electricity and population, and weakest for water use, heat deaths and insurance cover.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a heat warning, a rainstorm alert or a flooded street. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a smaller, older population changes who can evacuate, who can respond and how fast places recover.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Direct disaster loss was 231.78 billion yuan in 2025 and the insured share is not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  China has deep monitoring and statistics and thinner public evidence on keeping water, power and care running for weeks. The 2027 programme should map flood and lifeline dependencies, test the Henan pattern at wider scale, and measure heat and import exposure.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would extreme rain on a dense plain cut roads, underground transport, water and care together, and how long would recovery take?

   INI-CHN-WAT-01 · flood and lifeline continuity

2. A-02

   How much heat-health surge capacity and power margin exist in a record-hot summer?

   INI-CHN-CLI-02 · heat, power and care

3. A-03

   How fast can wind, solar and other non-fossil supply displace coal, and what does the 2035 aim imply year by year?

   INI-CHN-ENE-03 · power mix and coal pace

4. A-04

   How concentrated are soybean, feed and cereal imports, by commodity and origin?

   INI-CHN-FOO-04 · import exposure

5. A-05

   Where do flood, typhoon and drought losses fall, and who insures them?

   INI-CHN-FIN-05 · protection gap

6. A-06

   How do reservoirs and levees perform under more intense rainfall?

   INI-CHN-WAT-06 · workstream

7. A-07

   How resilient are data-centre and manufacturing clusters to flood, heat and power constraints?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

46 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). China: country profile. In China 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.