The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Trade and Strategic Resources relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
Trade and resources · Methods and uncertainty
unit · cadence · label
| Transit time | days | weekly | OBSERVED | SP-4434 |
| Supplier concentration (HHI) | index | quarterly | DERIVED | SP-2755 |
| Inventory cover | days | weekly | REPORTED | SP-9473 |
| Freight rate index | index | weekly | OBSERVED | SP-7356 |
| Share of supply from top source | of volume | quarterly | DERIVED | SP-8892 |
Trade and Strategic Resources · Evidence registerEvidence register, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The Trade and Strategic Resources methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them network science and contagion, optimization and operations research, and econometrics, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, night lights and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, night lights and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Firm-level links | Customs data stop at the border; tiers below are invisible | Concentration at product level; firm links labelled when inferred |
| Inventories | Buffer stocks are rarely disclosed | Scenario ranges |
| Substitution | Elasticities for critical inputs are poorly known | Sensitivity analysis |
| Policy | Export measures can change overnight | Policy scenarios |
Concentration indices are reported by stage of the chain and by measure (volume, value).
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Network science and contagion | Network science and contagion study how the structure of connections among entities shapes the spread of failures, information and disease. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.