G-P06 · EVIDENCE · researchGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRITrade and Strategic ResourcesIn development
Research and evidence

Research and evidence

The research behind Trade and Strategic Resources: the questions it asks, the methods it uses and how evidence is reviewed before it is published.

Open Methods and uncertainty Back to Trade and Strategic Resources
Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Trade, resources and supply chains, Industry and robotics
Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Research and evidence: institutional oversight of researchCapacity and oversight only: proposals go to an institutional committee, reviewed under national rules, approved with conditions, supported by training, audited, and incidents are reported to the national body. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Trade and Strategic Resources research is the evidence work behind the platform: questions such as trade corridors and chokepoints and critical minerals, answered with network science and contagion as well as optimization and operations research and reviewed before publication. Every result carries an evidence label, from observed to modelled or expert judgement, and missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

02Geography

Activity and hazards in the Strait of Malacca.

For research and evidence, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, night lights and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Activity and hazards, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For research and evidence, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, night lights and population density with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · GDACS · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03Questions

What the research asks.

  1. 01

    Trade corridors and chokepoints

    Ports, straits, rail and supply corridors.

  2. 02

    Critical minerals

    Mining, refining, demand and resource security.

  3. 03

    Food and energy trade

    Commodity security and import dependencies.

  4. 04

    Semiconductors and components

    Electronics, advanced materials and fabrication inputs.

  5. 05

    Logistics and cold chain

    Transport time and disruption.

  6. 06

    Geoeconomics and fragmentation

    Restrictions, market transmission and substitution.

04Open questions

What supply chain research cannot yet answer well enough for decisions.

Supply-chain risk research needs data that public statistics only partly provide. The agenda targets concentration, chokepoints and policy shocks where measurement is weakest.

05Evidence

Every result keeps its label.

Results are labelled as observed, officially reported, estimated, modelled, forecast, scenario or expert judgement. Missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

Methods

Methods and uncertainty

How results are produced and where they stop

Sources

Source and data register

Where data comes from and on what terms

Publications

Reviewed outputs

Citable work with its editorial status

06Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Research integrityConduct of research in line with principles of reliability, honesty, respect and accountability, as the European Code of Conduct for Research Integrity sets them out.
Evidence labelA tag on an assertion naming the kind of evidence behind it, such as observed, officially reported or modelled.
ReproducibilityObtaining consistent results using the same data and analysis code as the original study.
Criticality assessmentAn evaluation combining a material's economic importance with its supply risk.
07Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Pages

Pages in Research and evidence.

Page

Methods and uncertainty

Page

Source and data register

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I propose a research question?
Yes. Write to contact@therisk.global with the question, the context and who would use the answer. A proposal receives a reference; it does not commit the platform to the work.
Related

Around Trade and Strategic Resources.

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