GCRI · Climate and Hazards
Climate and Hazards
Physical climate risks, weather extremes and hazard interactions grounded in observed and modelled evidence. Climate and Hazards is an established platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation.
- STEM methods
- 10
- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 8
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 10
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
- 3
- Reports series it contributes to
The areas of climate and hazards this platform takes on.
Climate and Hazards studies the physical side of risk: how the climate is changing, how heat, drought, floods, storms, wildfires, earthquakes and other hazards arise, and how they combine. Its pages set out the observations, models, statistics and services behind hazard evidence for each field, with every value labelled by its evidence and every limit stated. It prepares evidence; national meteorological, hydrological and geological services issue forecasts and warnings, and governments decide.
Climate baselines
Observed climate, reference periods and the reanalyses that fill gaps between stations, with their uncertainty.
Heat and drought
Heatwaves, humid heat, meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought, and how they develop over days to years.
Flood and storm
River, surface water and coastal flooding, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and the rainfall extremes that drive them.
Wildfire and land
Fire weather, fuels, ignition and burned area, and the land changes that alter fire regimes.
Earthquakes and geohazards
Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, landslides and subsidence, and the hazard models used for planning.
Compound hazards
Hazards that occur together or in sequence, such as hot and dry, or storm surge with river flood.
Climate projections
Scenarios, global warming levels, model ensembles and downscaling, and how far they can be trusted locally.
Climate services and warnings
How forecasts, outlooks and warnings are produced, communicated and verified by the services that issue them.
Multi-hazard outlook.
The screen a team would use to follow this field: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
The questions this field works on.
Climate baselines
Historical trends and reference periods.
TopicHeat and drought
Compound heat and hydrologic stress.
TopicFlood and storm
Extreme precipitation, coastal storm and flooding.
TopicWildfire and land
Fire weather, fuels and landscapes.
TopicEarthquakes and geohazards
Earthquakes, volcanoes and related hazards.
TopicCompound hazards
Multiple and cascading events.
TopicClimate projections
Scenario models, ensembles and uncertainty.
TopicClimate services and warnings
Forecast-to-user pathways and authority.
Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.
Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Growth of pressure
- 6.0% a year
- Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
- 4.0% a year
- Investment response to perceived pressure
- 20%
- Perception delay
- 4.0 years
- Tipping threshold of pressure
- 60 index
- Amplification past the threshold
- 2.0 times
- Years simulated
- 50 years
Readouts
- Peak pressure
- 113 index
- Capacity at the end
- 186 index
- Years over the threshold
- 15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Pressure | Capacity | Perceived |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
Methods
- System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
- Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
- Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Climate and Hazards in Foundry
- Tested at Climate and Hazards in Universe
- Codified in Climate and Earth Systems in Standards
- Published in Climate and Hazards in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences in Academy
What Climate and Hazards does.
Climate hazards are physical events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms and wildfires whose frequency and intensity depend on the climate. Climate and Hazards covers them alongside earthquakes and other geohazards, compound events, projections and warning services. It prepares evidence; national meteorological, hydrological and geological services issue forecasts and warnings, and governments decide.
Its community
Climatologists; meteorologists; risk modellers; adaptation analysts.
Its methods
Climate scenarios; hazard models; EO indicators; uncertainty.
Its outputs
Hazard evidence guides; regional risk explainers; scenario limitations.
Model Climate and Hazards as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Climate risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Sea-level rise
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
- Estuary flood (set off downstream)
- Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
- Wetland loss (set off downstream)
- Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
- Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
- Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-1The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-3bDataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H71Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H79Hazard family: Mental health crises (NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H75Hazard family: Climate-sensitive illness (NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)NRS-H7Hazard family: Large-scale circulation anomalies (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)
Observation
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Example geography
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
What Climate and Hazards studies, and who issues forecasts and warnings.
Climate and Hazards, studies the physical side of risk: observed climate, hazards and how they combine, and the methods that turn observations and models into evidence. National meteorological, hydrological and geological services issue forecasts and warnings; GCRI issues none and holds no forecasting mandate.
Hazard maps and projections shown here are illustrations unless marked otherwise. A projection under an emissions pathway is not a forecast, and a return period estimated from the past is a moving target in a warming climate.
How Climate and Hazards is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Uncertainty bands
How far the outlook for Climate and Hazards could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.
- Central estimate
- median of the ensemble
- Ranges
- likely and very likely, in IPCC calibrated language
- Ensemble
- members, scenarios and initial conditions stated
- Read with
- the sensitivity of the result to each input
Earth observation chain
How a satellite or sensor record becomes evidence on Climate and Hazards, and where each step adds uncertainty.
- 01 · Acquireorbit, sensor and revisitUncertainty: gaps from cloud and orbit
- 02 · Calibrateradiometric and geometricUncertainty: sensor drift
- 03 · Correctatmosphere and terrainUncertainty: aerosol and slope assumptions
- 04 · Retrieve or classifythe variable or the classUncertainty: model and training error
- 05 · Validateagainst ground truthUncertainty: sample design and size
- 06 · Publishwith error bars and lineageUncertainty: stated, never hidden
Hazards become risk through the five domains.
- WaterHow this field couples to itFloods and droughts are water events first; their losses arrive through every other system.
- EnergyHow this field couples to itHeat raises power demand while lowering plant capacity and line ratings.
- FoodHow this field couples to itHeat and dry spells at critical crop stages drive yield losses.
- HealthHow this field couples to itHeat-health and post-flood disease are among the most direct health effects of hazards.
- BiodiversityHow this field couples to itWildfire, drought and marine heatwaves damage ecosystems that buffer later hazards.
Climate signals worldwide.
Daytime surface heat, rain and population density across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Climate signals, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA JPL PO.DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite analysis
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Climate signals, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT · NASA AIRSSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Observed (EO): NASA AIRS. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
Where hazard evidence goes.
Hazard analyses are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series and projections for the Foresight Outlook series. Gridded products would carry metadata under NS-3b of the proposed Nexus Standards.
- Meteorological services can share verification archives.
- Researchers can contribute attribution and extreme value studies.
- Communities can record local hazard impacts with dates.
Hazards are changing, and they rarely arrive alone.
The physical basis is well established. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour, which intensifies heavy rainfall; higher temperatures increase evaporation and the frequency and severity of heat extremes; rising sea levels raise the baseline on which every storm surge builds. Fire weather lengthens where heat and dryness coincide. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and many landslides are not driven by climate, but they strike the same exposed and changing societies, and some, such as rainfall-triggered landslides, are shaped by it.
What makes hazards systemic is their interaction with each other and with the things people build. A drought dries soils so that later rain runs off as a flash flood. A tropical cyclone combines wind, surge and extreme rain in a single event. A heatwave that coincides with low river flow cuts power generation precisely when demand for cooling peaks. Infrastructure, supply chains and insurance arrangements designed around a stable past can fail together when several hazards align, and the losses travel far from where the hazard struck.
The scientific task is to describe these hazards honestly: what the observations show, what the models project under which assumptions, and how much uncertainty remains. Overconfident hazard information is as dangerous as none, because it is built into designs, prices and plans that outlast the analysis.
Hazard evidence with its limits attached.
Scenarios, models and observations
Climate scenarios, hazard models, Earth observation indicators and explicit treatment of uncertainty.
Guides and explainers
Hazard evidence guides, regional risk explainers and statements of scenario limitations, published as they pass review.
Who it is for
Climatologists, meteorologists, risk modellers and adaptation analysts, and the professionals who use their work.
Climate and Hazards does hazard science, not disaster coordination. It does not issue forecasts or warnings; those come from national meteorological, hydrological and geological services. GCRI does not regulate, certify, license or approve.
The steward of three methods, linked to governance and finance.
Climate and Hazards stewards the canonical descriptions of climate and atmospheric science, Earth and geophysical science and forecasting and time-series analysis in the STEM Commons. It also applies extreme value theory, Earth observation, spatial statistics, high-performance computing, hydrology, ocean and coastal science and space systems. See the STEM foundation page.
At The Global Risks Forum (GRF), Climate and Nature Governance and Disaster and Crisis Governance convene the institutions that govern adaptation and emergencies. At The Global Risks Alliance (GRA), Reinsurance and Catastrophe, Climate and Nature Financial Risk and Disaster Risk Finance build shared industry understanding of how hazards become financial losses. Within GCRI, Disaster Resilience and Recovery covers preparedness and recovery. All are listed on counterparts across the Consortium.
Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Every claim on Climate and Hazards rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.
How work moves in this field.
A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.
- Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Climate and Hazards
- Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Climate and Hazards
- Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Climate and Hazards
- Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Climate and Hazards
- Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Climate and Hazards
- Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Climate and Hazards
- Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Climate and Hazards
- Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Climate and Hazards
Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.
- Labs
- Foundry
- Universe
- Nexus Standards
- Reports
- Risk Academy
- Competent authority (outside the programme)
How this works across the six pillars.
Climate and Hazards works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
Programme yearAll phases
Route
The whole programme
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- Pillars
- 6 of 6
- Handoffs
- 18 of 18
- Loops
- 17 closed
Handoffs in play
- F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
- F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
- F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review
and 14 more
- LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
- FoundryWhere methods, data and models become reproducible builds, each run with its inputs, version and limits on record.Climate and Hazards in FoundryFoundry
- UniverseWhere a build is tested under controlled conditions with independent evaluators, so a method’s skill is measured, not assumed.Climate and Hazards in Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus StandardsWhere methods, identifiers and data schemas are codified in the open and corrected when a test finds a fault.Climate and Earth Systems in Standardsnexustandards.com
- ReportsWhere findings are published with their method, uncertainty and evidence class, and corrected as new versions.Climate and Hazards in ReportsReports
- Risk AcademyWhere methods and systems are taught on real data and real places, by working the case, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences in Academyrisksacademy.com
What the work is read against.
The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.
| Framework or standard | Body | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| IPCC Sixth Assessment Report | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | Assessed physical science of climate change, extremes, regional climate and confidence language |
| Global Framework for Climate Services | World Meteorological Organization | Structure for producing and delivering climate information to users, with its pillars and priority sectors |
| WMO climatological standard normals | World Meteorological Organization | Rules for computing reference-period climate averages so that anomalies are comparable |
| Global Climate Observing System Essential Climate Variables | GCOS, sponsored by WMO, IOC-UNESCO, UNEP and ISC | The variables and requirements for systematic observation of the climate system |
| Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 | World Climate Research Programme | Common experiments and data standards for global climate model projections |
| Early Warnings for All initiative | United Nations, led by WMO, UNDRR, ITU and IFRC | Four pillars of people-centred early warning: risk knowledge, detection, communication and preparedness |
| Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction | United Nations, with UNDRR as custodian | Targets on multi-hazard early warning and disaster risk information |
| UNDRR-ISC Hazard Information Profiles | UNDRR and the International Science Council | Standard definitions of hazards for registers, warnings and loss accounting |
| Common Alerting Protocol | OASIS, adopted as ITU-T X.1303 | A data format for exchanging public warnings across systems and media |
The same field, seen three ways.
GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Climate and Hazards links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.
- Diplomacy NexusInstitutionGRFShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Climate and Nature GovernanceInstitutionGRFShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Disaster and Crisis GovernanceInstitutionGRFShared fieldDisaster and crisis
- Insurance NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Banking NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Asset Management NexusInstitutionGRAShared fieldClimate and hazards
- Reinsurance and CatastropheInstitutionGRAShared fieldClimate and hazards, Disaster and crisis
- Disaster Risk FinanceInstitutionGRAShared fieldDisaster and crisis
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Pages in Climate and Hazards.
Mandate and publisher
PageField overview
PageResearch and evidence
PageInnovation and practical technology
PageProgrammes and projects
PageData and technical methods
PageSpecialist community
PageLearning and professional development
PageEvents and technical dialogues
PageResearch and publications
PageParticipation paths
PageContact the specialist team
PageTrust, rights and status
PageSTEM foundation of Climate and Hazards
PageHow work moves in this field
PageBuild in Foundry
PageTest in Universe
PagePublish in Reports
PageThe same field across the Consortium
PageTopics
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
Who publishes Climate and Hazards?
Is Climate and Hazards active?
How can I contribute?
Where are findings published?
Which values on this platform are real?
How do I report an error?
Does the platform issue weather forecasts or warnings?
How is it different from Disaster Resilience and Recovery?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
How Climate and Hazards works.
Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.
Climate and Hazards
How Climate and Hazards works
Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports
A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.
01 Scope
- 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
- 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
02 Evidence
- 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
- 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
03 Work
- 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
- 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
04 Publish
- 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
- 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.
Climate and Hazards home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.
Take part in Climate and Hazards.
Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Climate and Hazards platform.
National institutions
Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters
Sectors and professions
Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Climate and Hazards. Participate
Learning
Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning
Standards
Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups
Communities and research
Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team
| Open call | Seeks | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Founding call for experts to the working groups CALL-FOUNDING-EXPERTS | expert, editor, chair | 2026-12-15 |
| Open nomination for the three independent expert seats of the Global Standards Council CALL-GSC-IND | council-member | 2026-12-01 |
| Nominations of interim regional members (applies only if the transitional provision is decided) CALL-GSC-REG | council-member | 2026-12-15 |
| Review of the wave-1 risk core outlines (C1, C2, C3, C4, C8, C10, C11) CALL-REVIEW-WAVE1 | contributor | 2027-01-31 |
| Experts for the core standards of risk science: uncertainty and evidence grading, scales, structured expert judgement, tolerability, extremes and compound events, catastrophic and existential risk, ethics and equity, units and measurement (NRS-C17 to NRS-C24) CALL-CORE-SCIENCE | expert, editor, chair | 2027-01-31 |
| Independent reviewers for the families of the hazard atlas, three from at least two regions for each family (NHS2-R19), priority families first CALL-ATLAS-REVIEW | expert | 2027-03-31 |
| Members of the interim Frontier Safety Review Panel and red-team reviewers (biosafety and biosecurity, AI safety and security, critical-infrastructure security); applications treated in confidence CALL-FRONTIER-SAFETY-REVIEW | expert | 2026-11-30 |
| Experts in ontology, metrology, software verification and conformity assessment for the requirement register, the NHS-2 machine representation, the conformance test suites and the conformity assessment scheme CALL-CONFORMANCE-ONTOLOGY | expert, editor | 2027-01-31 |
Calls past their closing date are hidden automatically. Every call, proposal and route: open areas and calls.
Gather the cell
Bring together three to seven people with complementary skills: data, field practice, policy and communication.
Register it
Write to the team with the cell’s name, members, area and region. You receive a reference and a contact. Write to the team
Choose a charter
Pick one focus: research and evidence, data and maps, standards review, or community preparedness.
Learn together
Follow shared study paths at Risk Academy, with practice and a record of every course completed. Hazards and resilience
Lead and report
Hold regular sessions. Publish what the cell learns through Reports. Bring findings to the working groups. Working groups
What a national team or a local community can do on The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) today.
Your country’s profile
Open risk profiles for 195 countries, with sources and licences on every value. Open the Index
Correct or reply
Correct a value or reply for your country. The change is logged with its effect. Open the Index
Offer data
Offer a dataset. It enters through the licence gate, with your credit. Open the Index
Every figure on this page is indexed: climate, hazards, environment, the world.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageClimate and HazardsMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of climate, hazards, environment.Public API
Series in this context climate, hazards, environment
- GSGlobal ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.NXS-GRX-AR-000065Climate · Hazards · Environment
- GSGlobal WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature.NXS-GRX-AR-000059Hazards · Climate · Energy
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Energy
- GSGlobal Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) depends on.NXS-GRX-AR-000070Hazards · Climate · Environment
Country profiles the world
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Atmosphere and weatherNXS-GRX-AR-000135
- Ice and snowNXS-GRX-AR-000137
- Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tippingNXS-GRX-AR-000141
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.