GCRI · Climate and Hazards

Climate and Hazards

Physical climate risks, weather extremes and hazard interactions grounded in observed and modelled evidence. Climate and Hazards is an established platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation.

STEM methods
10
Canonical methods this field applies
Topics
8
Subject pages in the field
Counterparts
10
Platforms in shared fields across the network
Report series
3
Reports series it contributes to
01Coverage

The areas of climate and hazards this platform takes on.

Climate and Hazards studies the physical side of risk: how the climate is changing, how heat, drought, floods, storms, wildfires, earthquakes and other hazards arise, and how they combine. Its pages set out the observations, models, statistics and services behind hazard evidence for each field, with every value labelled by its evidence and every limit stated. It prepares evidence; national meteorological, hydrological and geological services issue forecasts and warnings, and governments decide.

Area

Climate baselines

Observed climate, reference periods and the reanalyses that fill gaps between stations, with their uncertainty.

Area

Heat and drought

Heatwaves, humid heat, meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought, and how they develop over days to years.

Area

Flood and storm

River, surface water and coastal flooding, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and the rainfall extremes that drive them.

Area

Wildfire and land

Fire weather, fuels, ignition and burned area, and the land changes that alter fire regimes.

Area

Earthquakes and geohazards

Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, landslides and subsidence, and the hazard models used for planning.

Area

Compound hazards

Hazards that occur together or in sequence, such as hot and dry, or storm surge with river flood.

Area

Climate projections

Scenarios, global warming levels, model ensembles and downscaling, and how far they can be trusted locally.

Area

Climate services and warnings

How forecasts, outlooks and warnings are produced, communicated and verified by the services that issue them.

02Monitor

Multi-hazard outlook.

The screen a team would use to follow this field: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Multi-hazard outlook: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Region A.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
04Simulator

Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.

Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.

Controls

Growth of pressure
6.0% a year
Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
4.0% a year
Investment response to perceived pressure
20%
Perception delay
4.0 years
Tipping threshold of pressure
60 index
Amplification past the threshold
2.0 times
Years simulated
50 years

Readouts

Peak pressure
113 index
Capacity at the end
186 index
Years over the threshold
15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
YearPressureCapacityPerceived
020.050.020.0
423.344.921.2
827.242.224.0
1231.742.327.7
1636.845.532.2
2042.351.537.2
2447.960.342.6
2853.271.348.0
3257.884.353.1
3666.498.458.4
4082.7115.969.7
4497.8139.783.8
48109.1169.497.3

Methods

  1. System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
  2. Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
  3. Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
  4. Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Data

No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.

Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: System dynamics (Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics); Critical transitions and tipping points (Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461); Causal loop diagram (Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill).
05Overview

What Climate and Hazards does.

Climate hazards are physical events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms and wildfires whose frequency and intensity depend on the climate. Climate and Hazards covers them alongside earthquakes and other geohazards, compound events, projections and warning services. It prepares evidence; national meteorological, hydrological and geological services issue forecasts and warnings, and governments decide.

Who it serves

Its community

Climatologists; meteorologists; risk modellers; adaptation analysts.

How it works

Its methods

Climate scenarios; hazard models; EO indicators; uncertainty.

What it produces

Its outputs

Hazard evidence guides; regional risk explainers; scenario limitations.

06Twin and cascade simulator

Model Climate and Hazards as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Climate risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Sea-level rise
  • Coastal flood (set off downstream)
  • Storm surge (set off downstream)
  • High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
  • Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
  • Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
  • Estuary flood (set off downstream)
  • Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
  • Wetland loss (set off downstream)
  • Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
  • Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
  • Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-3b Dataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H65 Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H71 Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)
  • NRS-H79 Hazard family: Mental health crises (NHS-1 health.mental)
  • NRS-H75 Hazard family: Climate-sensitive illness (NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)
  • NRS-H7 Hazard family: Large-scale circulation anomalies (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)

Observation

  • ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
  • CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
  • NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
  • Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP

Example geography

  • Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
07Mandate and boundaries

What Climate and Hazards studies, and who issues forecasts and warnings.

Climate and Hazards, studies the physical side of risk: observed climate, hazards and how they combine, and the methods that turn observations and models into evidence. National meteorological, hydrological and geological services issue forecasts and warnings; GCRI issues none and holds no forecasting mandate.

Hazard maps and projections shown here are illustrations unless marked otherwise. A projection under an emissions pathway is not a forecast, and a return period estimated from the past is a moving target in a warming climate.

08Methods and evidence

How Climate and Hazards is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

Uncertainty bands

How far the outlook for Climate and Hazards could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.

Now+5+10+15+20+25+30 yhighlowvery likely rangelikely range
Central estimate
median of the ensemble
Ranges
likely and very likely, in IPCC calibrated language
Ensemble
members, scenarios and initial conditions stated
Read with
the sensitivity of the result to each input
Illustrative ensemble spread on an index scale; the form follows IPCC uncertainty guidance. Not a projection.

Earth observation chain

How a satellite or sensor record becomes evidence on Climate and Hazards, and where each step adds uncertainty.

  1. 01 · Acquireorbit, sensor and revisitUncertainty: gaps from cloud and orbit
  2. 02 · Calibrateradiometric and geometricUncertainty: sensor drift
  3. 03 · Correctatmosphere and terrainUncertainty: aerosol and slope assumptions
  4. 04 · Retrieve or classifythe variable or the classUncertainty: model and training error
  5. 05 · Validateagainst ground truthUncertainty: sample design and size
  6. 06 · Publishwith error bars and lineageUncertainty: stated, never hidden
Processing chain in the CEOS Analysis Ready Data sense; each step records its uncertainty before a figure is drawn. A generic structure, not results.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
10Geography

Climate signals worldwide.

Daytime surface heat, rain and population density across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Climate signals, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
Provider
NASA GES DISC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
Provider
NASA JPL PO.DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite analysis
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Climate signals, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT · NASA AIRSSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA AIRS. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026

11Reports, standards and contributions

Where hazard evidence goes.

Hazard analyses are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series and projections for the Foresight Outlook series. Gridded products would carry metadata under NS-3b of the proposed Nexus Standards.

  • Meteorological services can share verification archives.
  • Researchers can contribute attribution and extreme value studies.
  • Communities can record local hazard impacts with dates.
12The problem

Hazards are changing, and they rarely arrive alone.

The physical basis is well established. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour, which intensifies heavy rainfall; higher temperatures increase evaporation and the frequency and severity of heat extremes; rising sea levels raise the baseline on which every storm surge builds. Fire weather lengthens where heat and dryness coincide. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and many landslides are not driven by climate, but they strike the same exposed and changing societies, and some, such as rainfall-triggered landslides, are shaped by it.

What makes hazards systemic is their interaction with each other and with the things people build. A drought dries soils so that later rain runs off as a flash flood. A tropical cyclone combines wind, surge and extreme rain in a single event. A heatwave that coincides with low river flow cuts power generation precisely when demand for cooling peaks. Infrastructure, supply chains and insurance arrangements designed around a stable past can fail together when several hazards align, and the losses travel far from where the hazard struck.

The scientific task is to describe these hazards honestly: what the observations show, what the models project under which assumptions, and how much uncertainty remains. Overconfident hazard information is as dangerous as none, because it is built into designs, prices and plans that outlast the analysis.

13What the platform does

Hazard evidence with its limits attached.

Methods

Scenarios, models and observations

Climate scenarios, hazard models, Earth observation indicators and explicit treatment of uncertainty.

Outputs

Guides and explainers

Hazard evidence guides, regional risk explainers and statements of scenario limitations, published as they pass review.

Community

Who it is for

Climatologists, meteorologists, risk modellers and adaptation analysts, and the professionals who use their work.

Climate and Hazards does hazard science, not disaster coordination. It does not issue forecasts or warnings; those come from national meteorological, hydrological and geological services. GCRI does not regulate, certify, license or approve.

14Foundation and counterparts

The steward of three methods, linked to governance and finance.

Climate and Hazards stewards the canonical descriptions of climate and atmospheric science, Earth and geophysical science and forecasting and time-series analysis in the STEM Commons. It also applies extreme value theory, Earth observation, spatial statistics, high-performance computing, hydrology, ocean and coastal science and space systems. See the STEM foundation page.

At The Global Risks Forum (GRF), Climate and Nature Governance and Disaster and Crisis Governance convene the institutions that govern adaptation and emergencies. At The Global Risks Alliance (GRA), Reinsurance and Catastrophe, Climate and Nature Financial Risk and Disaster Risk Finance build shared industry understanding of how hazards become financial losses. Within GCRI, Disaster Resilience and Recovery covers preparedness and recovery. All are listed on counterparts across the Consortium.

15Grounding

Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

Every claim on Climate and Hazards rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.

Climate and atmospheric scienceEarth and geophysical scienceForecasting and time-series analysisExtreme value theory and tail riskEarth observation and remote sensingSpatial statistics and geostatisticsHigh-performance, cloud and edge computingHydrology and water scienceOcean and coastal scienceSpace systems and satellite services

See the STEM foundation of Climate and Hazards

16Cycle

How work moves in this field.

A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.

  1. Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Climate and Hazards
  2. Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Climate and Hazards
  3. Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Climate and Hazards
  4. Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Climate and Hazards
  5. Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Climate and Hazards
  6. Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Climate and Hazards
  7. Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Climate and Hazards
  8. Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Climate and Hazards

Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.

17Six pillars

How this works across the six pillars.

Climate and Hazards works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.

Select pillars · hover lines18 / 18 handoffs

Route

The whole programme

Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.

L · F · U · S · R · A

Pillars
6 of 6
Handoffs
18 of 18
Loops
17 closed

Handoffs in play

  • F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
  • F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
  • F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
  • F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review

and 14 more

F01 to F14 are the recorded handoffs of the programme year, each with the artefact that moves and its phase; R1, R2, R3 and R4 carry work around the ring. A loop counts when every pillar on it is selected. Every pillar is led by the Nexus Consortium.
  1. LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
  2. FoundryWhere methods, data and models become reproducible builds, each run with its inputs, version and limits on record.Climate and Hazards in FoundryFoundry
  3. UniverseWhere a build is tested under controlled conditions with independent evaluators, so a method’s skill is measured, not assumed.Climate and Hazards in Universeuniverse.nexus
  4. Nexus StandardsWhere methods, identifiers and data schemas are codified in the open and corrected when a test finds a fault.Climate and Earth Systems in Standardsnexustandards.com
  5. ReportsWhere findings are published with their method, uncertainty and evidence class, and corrected as new versions.Climate and Hazards in ReportsReports
  6. Risk AcademyWhere methods and systems are taught on real data and real places, by working the case, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences in Academyrisksacademy.com
18Frameworks

What the work is read against.

The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.

Framework or standardBodyWhat it sets
IPCC Sixth Assessment ReportIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeAssessed physical science of climate change, extremes, regional climate and confidence language
Global Framework for Climate ServicesWorld Meteorological OrganizationStructure for producing and delivering climate information to users, with its pillars and priority sectors
WMO climatological standard normalsWorld Meteorological OrganizationRules for computing reference-period climate averages so that anomalies are comparable
Global Climate Observing System Essential Climate VariablesGCOS, sponsored by WMO, IOC-UNESCO, UNEP and ISCThe variables and requirements for systematic observation of the climate system
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6World Climate Research ProgrammeCommon experiments and data standards for global climate model projections
Early Warnings for All initiativeUnited Nations, led by WMO, UNDRR, ITU and IFRCFour pillars of people-centred early warning: risk knowledge, detection, communication and preparedness
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionUnited Nations, with UNDRR as custodianTargets on multi-hazard early warning and disaster risk information
UNDRR-ISC Hazard Information ProfilesUNDRR and the International Science CouncilStandard definitions of hazards for registers, warnings and loss accounting
Common Alerting ProtocolOASIS, adopted as ITU-T X.1303A data format for exchanging public warnings across systems and media
22Connected

Where this page leads across the Consortium.

23Questions

Questions and answers.

Who publishes Climate and Hazards?
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) publishes Climate and Hazards and is responsible for what it publishes. GCRI is a research, development and policy institution. It is not a regulator, and it does not certify, license or approve; its findings carry their methods and uncertainty.
Is Climate and Hazards active?
Climate and Hazards is an established platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation. Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
How can I contribute?
Start with the participation paths or write to the contact form. An enquiry receives a reference; it does not create membership, a role or an assignment.
Where are findings published?
Reviewed outputs appear on the publications page, and contributions to the Reports series are listed on Publish in Reports.
Which values on this platform are real?
Indicator names, units, sources, methods and frameworks are real. Levels in figures and canvases are examples in a design. A programme replaces them with labelled evidence it owns.
How do I report an error?
Use corrections and concerns, or write to the integrity concern form. A correction is recorded as a new version, never a silent edit.
Does the platform issue weather forecasts or warnings?
No. Forecasts and warnings are the responsibility of national meteorological, hydrological and geological services. Climate and Hazards publishes research on hazards, methods and uncertainty, and on how warning systems work.
How is it different from Disaster Resilience and Recovery?
Climate and Hazards studies the hazards themselves: their physics, statistics and trends. Disaster Resilience and Recovery studies how societies prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. The two link closely but keep separate scopes.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIClimate and HazardsGlobal Systems Risk and ResilienceObservatory SignalScenario and Stress-Test
How it works

How Climate and Hazards works.

Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.

Climate and Hazards

How Climate and Hazards works

Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports

A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.

  1. 01 Scope

    1. 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
    2. 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
  2. 02 Evidence

    1. 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
    2. 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
  3. 03 Work

    1. 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
    2. 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
  4. 04 Publish

    1. 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
    2. 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.

Climate and Hazards home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.

Take part

Take part in Climate and Hazards.

Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Climate and Hazards platform.

Route

National institutions

Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters

Route

Sectors and professions

Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Climate and Hazards. Participate

Route

Learning

Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning

Route

Standards

Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups

Route

Communities and research

Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team

The Global Risks Index

Every figure on this page is indexed: climate, hazards, environment, the world.

The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.

  1. 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
  2. 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
  3. 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
  4. 04 · This pageClimate and HazardsMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of climate, hazards, environment.Public API
Sources205registered, each with its licence
Indicators451NIS-1, 106 composites, 20 domain indices
Hazards905NHS-1, crosswalked to UNDRR-ISC HIPs
Series54global, sector, strategic, technology, thematic
Country profiles195one site per country

Series in this context climate, hazards, environment

  1. GSGlobal ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.NXS-GRX-AR-000065Climate · Hazards · Environment
  2. GSGlobal WaterAccess, scarcity, quality, floods and droughts, groundwater depletion, transboundary dependency and the couplings of water to energy, food, health and nature.NXS-GRX-AR-000059Hazards · Climate · Energy
  3. GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Energy
  4. GSGlobal Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) depends on.NXS-GRX-AR-000070Hazards · Climate · Environment

All 54 series · The 20 domain indices

Country profiles the world

Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply

Hazard domains NHS-1

Geodata and API open

Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines

/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0

Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.

Climate and Hazards

Bring a method, a dataset or a question.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

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Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.