GCRI · 仕事とスキルの未来
労働市場の変化
Labour markets change continuously as sectors grow and shrink, technology shifts tasks, populations age and climate policy reshapes industries. The effects show up in which jobs exist, where, on what contracts and at what pay. This page sets out how labour market change happens, how it is measured with standard classifications, and what evidence serves the labour ministries, employers and unions who respond to it.
Labour market change on the record.
Labour market change: how the risk develops.
Sector employment and occupational risk. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Sectoral shifts move workers
Employment moves from agriculture and manufacturing toward services as economies develop, and from declining to growing industries during transitions.
Contracts are changing
Temporary, part-time, on-call and platform work have grown in many countries, changing security, benefits and bargaining power.
Demography reshapes supply
Ageing reduces the working-age population in some countries, while young populations in others need many new jobs each year.
Climate change and policy reallocate jobs
Heat, extreme weather and decarbonisation affect jobs in agriculture, construction, energy and transport, creating and ending work in different places.
How labour market change is modelled, measured and tested.
モデル、その仮定、データ、不確実性を、科学者やエンジニアが確認する形で示します。構造は公表された手法に従っています。描かれた値は例示であり、知見ではありません。
システム・モデル
The couplings between the systems in labour market change: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Labour markets change with shocks in every domain.
Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. The ILO’s Trends 2025 report is the reference; occupations follow ISCO-08.
- Labour force survey data.
- Regional studies.
何を、どの程度うまく測定しているか。
各指標には、その単位、更新頻度、背後にある出典の種類、値が持つことになるエビデンスのラベルが付いています。値は表示しません：プログラムが自らの権限のもとで値を提供します。
| 指標 | 単位 | 周期 | 出典の種類 | ラベル |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment-to-population ratio | percent | 四半期ごと | Labour force surveys | 公表統計 |
| Employment by sector and occupation | percent of employment | 年次 | Labour force surveys using ISCO | 公表統計 |
| Temporary employment | percent of employees | 年次 | Labour force surveys | 公表統計 |
| Labour underutilisation | percent of extended labour force | 四半期ごと | Labour force surveys | 公表統計 |
| Job vacancy rate | percent of posts vacant | 四半期ごと | Vacancy surveys | 公表統計 |
| Real median wage | currency units in constant prices | 年次 | Wage statistics | 公表統計 |
エビデンスの出所。
名前の明示された公開データセットと機関の記録。それぞれにライセンス区分があります。合意に基づく出典は、その条件のもとでのみ使用し、再公開することはありません。
| 出典 | 提供するもの | ライセンス区分 |
|---|---|---|
| ILOSTAT | Employment, unemployment, underutilisation and wages | オープン、CC BY 4.0 |
| OECD Employment Outlook and labour statistics | Labour market trends and policy analysis | Public, OECD terms |
| Eurostat labour force survey | Employment by sector, occupation and contract type | Open, Eurostat reuse policy |
| National labour force surveys | Employment structure | Licence per statistics office |
| Online job posting data summaries | Demand by occupation and skill | Commercial; public summaries (to check) |
誰が決め、エビデンスが何に役立つか。
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 誰が決定するか | 質問 | このページが提供するエビデンス |
|---|---|---|
| Labour ministries | Which sectors and groups need transition support | Change profiles; scenarios |
| Employers’ organisations and unions | What to negotiate on contracts and transitions | Job quality evidence |
| Public employment services | Where to focus job matching and training | Vacancy and underutilisation evidence |
このトピックが生み出す成果物
- Labour market change profiles by sector and region
- Contract and job quality analyses
- Transition scenarios for climate-affected sectors
- Evidence notes for employment strategies
What labour economists ask.
- Which sectors and occupations are growing or shrinking, where and for whom?
- Is change driven by technology, trade, demand, demography or policy?
- Are displaced workers finding comparable work, and how long does it take?
- Are labour markets becoming more polarised between high- and low-paid work?
Drivers of structural change.
Technology changes the relative productivity of tasks, shifting demand towards skills that complement it. Trade and global value chains move production between countries. Demographic ageing shrinks labour supply in some economies and increases demand for care work. Consumer demand shifts as incomes rise. Public policy, from minimum wages to industrial strategy, shapes all of these.
Change is uneven. Earlier computerisation reduced demand for routine middle-skill jobs in many economies, a pattern called job polarisation. Workers displaced from declining industries often face lasting earnings losses, especially older workers and those in places with few alternatives.
Measuring change and its limits.
- 01
Labour force surveys and administrative data
Employment, hours and earnings by sector and occupation. Informal work is poorly captured in many countries.
- 02
Occupational risk indicators
Measures of exposure to automation, trade or climate built from task data, using 経済学と開発経済学. Exposure is not the same as job loss.
- 03
Displacement studies
Following workers after job loss with linked data and 計量経済学. Such data exist in relatively few countries.
- 04
Vacancy and online job data
Near-real-time signals of skill demand. Online postings over-represent some occupations and regions.
Where this page’s references lead.
このページの読解の基準となる機関と文書。状態と版は変わります。各リンクは発行機関へ移動します。
質問と回答。
What is labour underutilisation?
What is ISCO?
How does climate change affect jobs?
What is job polarisation?
Why do displaced workers lose earnings for years?
Does the platform publish occupational risk rankings?
Can online job data replace surveys?
このページからエビデンスを提供する。
報告書 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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