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GCRI · Agency

تحلیل تصمیم برای کمک فنی

Decision analysis structures the choices technical assistance raises: which expert to engage, which engagement type fits, whether a declared conflict can be mitigated, whether to deploy to a field site, and whether to continue, rescope or close. It makes criteria, weights, uncertainty and value judgements explicit so that the holder of the decision can examine them.

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Decision analysis for technical assistance on the record.

Method recordSTEM method
  1. روشتحلیل تصمیم در شرایط عدم قطعیت
  3. Applied inسازمان
  4. داده5 inputs
  6. Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application

What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.

Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In governance and institutions and development finance, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Multi-criteria assessment of expert fit

Competence, context experience, language, availability and independence are scored against criteria set before profiles are seen. Weights are disclosed, evidence labels are kept beside each score, and sensitivity to the weights is reported.

Value of information before deployment

Before a field assignment, the decision holder asks whether a further security, health or access assessment would change the decision. Assessments that could change it are commissioned; those that could not are not.

Adaptive pathways for continuation

Programmes set signposts and triggers in advance, such as counterpart turnover or a failed diagnostic, that prompt a review to continue, rescope or close. Options that keep later choices open are identified early.

03پایش

Uncertainty analysis.

The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Uncertainty analysis

Agency · Decision analysis for technical · Run R-5933

Sensitivity rankedGCRI · سازمان

Total-order sensitivity

Output distribution

ورودی‌ها

Requests receivedBetarequests, statedاستنباط کارشناسی
Teams formedUniformteams, statedاستنباط کارشناسی
Experts on rosterعادیexperts, statedاستنباط کارشناسی
تعارض منافع اعلام‌شدهBetadeclarations, statedاستنباط کارشناسی
Uncertainty analysis: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Agency.نام‌ها نمونه و مقادیر تبیینی‌اند؛ طرحی است، نه سابقه یا سامانهٔ زنده.
04داده

What the method consumes.

Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.

دادهنقشبرچسب
Competence evidence with labelsScoring inputsگزارش‌شده
Structured استنباط کارشناسیProbabilities where records are absentبرآوردشده
Risk registers and incident recordsLikelihood and consequence inputsگزارش‌شده
Cost estimates and budgetsConsequence of each optionبرآوردشده
Evaluation findingsRetrospective evidence on similar choicesآمارهای منتشرشده
05روش‌ها و شواهد

How decision analysis for technical assistance is modelled, measured and tested.

مدل، مفروضات، داده‌ها و عدم قطعیت آن، به شکلی که دانشمند یا مهندس بررسی می‌کند. ساختارها از روش‌های منتشرشده پیروی می‌کنند. مقادیر ترسیم‌شده تبیینی‌اند، نه یافته.

مجموعه‌داده‌ها و خاستگاه

The data classes behind decision analysis for technical assistance and what is recorded about each before it is used.

طبقهٔ دادهخاستگاه ثبت شدوضوح اعلام‌شدهپروانه بررسی شد
تصاویر ماهواره‌ای، نوری و راداریحسگر، سطح پردازش، تاریخ برداشتاندازهٔ پیکسل و بازدید مجددبه‌ازای هر صحنه
بازتحلیل و خروجی مدل اقلیمیمدل، آزمایش، عضو، نسخهشبکه و گام زمانیبه‌ازای هر انتشار
حسگرها و سنجه‌های درجاایستگاه، ابزار، سابقهٔ واسنجینقطه و نرخ نمونه‌برداریبه‌ازای هر شبکه
مواجهه جمعیت و داراییروش، سال تولید، منابع ورودیاندازهٔ سلول و یکابه‌ازای هر انتشار
مرزها و جغرافیای مرجعتولیدکننده، ویراست، تاریخمقیاسبه‌ازای هر ویراست
تبارنامه
سابقهٔ W3C PROV از منبع تا شکل
اصول
FAIR: یافتنی، دسترس‌پذیر، هم‌کنش‌پذیر، بازاستفاده‌پذیر
شکاف‌ها
به‌صورت ناموجود نشان داده می‌شود، هرگز بی‌صدا پر نمی‌شود
ردهٔ داده‌ها و میدان‌های خاستگاهِ ثبت‌شده برای هر یک؛ یک مجموعه‌داده تنها زمانی با نام فهرست می‌شود که پروانهٔ آن استفاده را بپذیرد.
اصول راهنمای FAIR · GO FAIR و FORCE11W3C PROV · کنسرسیوم وب جهانیGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06اعتبارسنجی

How results are checked.

Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.

بررسیHow it is done
Weight sensitivityRankings are recomputed across plausible weight sets; choices that flip are flagged for the decision holder
Evidence and preference kept apartScores record what the evidence shows; weights record what the decision holder values, and each is documented separately
Panel independenceEveryone scoring or eliciting declares interests, and conflicted members recuse from the affected choices
Retrospective reviewPast decisions are compared with outcomes to test whether criteria and probabilities were sound

Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.

07فرایند

نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.

Process explorer · Process

Decision analysis for technical assistance: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 مرحله

فرایند

Decision analysis for technical assistance: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مخاطرهDataset · Agency coordinatorThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02مواجههDataset · Agency coordinatorThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03حساسیتDataset · Agency coordinatorThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Agency coordinatorThe ability of سامانه‌ها, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.

  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Agency coordinatorRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06آسیب‌پذیریComponent · Agency coordinatorThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07ریسکModel · AgencyRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.

  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Agency coordinatorRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09ریسک باقیماندهRecord · Agency coordinatorThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.

  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Agency coordinatorThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

08Connections

Topics that rely on this method.

09تولیت

Who maintains the method.

مدیریت ریسک سامانه‌ای stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Decision analysis under uncertainty

10متصل

جایی که این صفحه در سراسر کنسرسیوم به آن می‌رسد.

11پرسش‌ها

پرسش و پاسخ.

What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
رصدخانهٔ canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
گزارش‌هامشارکت

شواهد را از همین صفحه ارسال کنید.

گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIسازمانسبد و آمادگی

هرگز داده شخصی، جزئیات حساس زیرساخت یا چیزی را که حق اشتراکش را ندارید نفرستید. هر مشارکت پیش از استفاده داوری می‌شود؛ ارسال آن حق مؤلفی یا ویرایشی نمی‌دهد و حمایت مالی هرگز یافته‌ای را نمی‌خرد.

سازمان

یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.

اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.

پیشنهاد یک روش دیدن همهٔ مسیرهای تماس
حقوقی

نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و ارقام این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود این اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اعلامیه‌های داده بیان شده است.