GCRI · Agency
Decision analysis structures the choices technical assistance raises: which expert to engage, which engagement type fits, whether a declared conflict can be mitigated, whether to deploy to a field site, and whether to continue, rescope or close. It makes criteria, weights, uncertainty and value judgements explicit so that the holder of the decision can examine them.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In governance and institutions and development finance, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Competence, context experience, language, availability and independence are scored against criteria set before profiles are seen. Weights are disclosed, evidence labels are kept beside each score, and sensitivity to the weights is reported.
Before a field assignment, the decision holder asks whether a further security, health or access assessment would change the decision. Assessments that could change it are commissioned; those that could not are not.
Programmes set signposts and triggers in advance, such as counterpart turnover or a failed diagnostic, that prompt a review to continue, rescope or close. Options that keep later choices open are identified early.
Layar yang akan digunakan sebuah tim untuk mengikuti metode ini: ukuran, status, dan keputusannya. Nama adalah contoh dan nilai bersifat ilustratif.
Agency · Decision analysis for technical · Run R-5933
| Requests received | Beta | requests, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
| Teams formed | Uniform | teams, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
| Experts on roster | Normal | experts, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
| Konflik dinyatakan | Beta | declarations, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
Set data dan catatan yang digunakan oleh analisis keputusan dalam ketidakpastian di platform ini, beserta peran masing-masing dan label yang dibawa nilainya. Sumber dicantumkan dalam register sumber.
| Data | Peran | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Competence evidence with labels | Scoring inputs | DILAPORKAN |
| Structured Elisitasi pakar | Probabilities where records are absent | ESTIMASI |
| Risk registers and incident records | Likelihood and consequence inputs | DILAPORKAN |
| Cost estimates and budgets | Consequence of each option | ESTIMASI |
| Evaluation findings | Retrospective evidence on similar choices | Statistik terbitan |
Model, asumsi, data, dan ketidakpastiannya, dalam bentuk yang akan diperiksa ilmuwan atau insinyur. Strukturnya mengikuti metode yang dipublikasikan. Nilai yang digambar bersifat ilustratif, bukan temuan.
The data classes behind decision analysis for technical assistance and what is recorded about each before it is used.
| Kelas data | Asal-usul tercatat | Resolusi dinyatakan | Lisensi diperiksa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citra satelit, optik dan radar | sensor, tingkat pemrosesan, tanggal akuisisi | ukuran piksel dan kunjungan ulang | per adegan |
| Reanalisis dan keluaran model iklim | model, eksperimen, anggota, versi | grid dan langkah waktu | per rilis |
| Sensor dan alat ukur in situ | stasiun, instrumen, catatan kalibrasi | titik dan laju pengambilan sampel | per jaringan |
| Keterpaparan penduduk dan aset | metode, tahun terbit, sumber masukan | ukuran sel dan satuan | per rilis |
| Batas dan geografi acuan | produsen, edisi, tanggal | skala | per edisi |
Analisis diperiksa melalui analisis sensitivitas, tinjauan sejawat, dan pengawasan pemangku kepentingan. Tinjauan retrospektif membandingkan keputusan dengan hasilnya.
| Pemeriksaan | Cara pelaksanaannya |
|---|---|
| Weight sensitivity | Rankings are recomputed across plausible weight sets; choices that flip are flagged for the decision holder |
| Evidence and preference kept apart | Scores record what the evidence shows; weights record what the decision holder values, and each is documented separately |
| Panel independence | Everyone scoring or eliciting declares interests, and conflicted members recuse from the affected choices |
| Tinjauan retrospektif | Past decisions are compared with outcomes to test whether criteria and probabilities were sound |
Hasil bergantung pada probabilitas dan preferensi hasil elisitasi yang mungkin bias. Ketidakpastian mendalam dapat membuat perbandingan nilai harapan menyesatkan.
Process explorer · Process
10 steps·4 tahap
Proses
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
Garis besar suatu standar atau metode eksternal, dari sumber publiknya. Garis besar ini menjelaskan apa yang dinyatakan kerangka itu, bukan catatan pelaksanaan apa pun. Garis besar ini tidak menunjukkan bahwa Nexus atau mitra mana pun melaksanakan, menyertifikasi, atau menyetujui suatu langkah. Gerbang adalah langkah dalam metode, tidak pernah persetujuan Nexus.
Manajemen Risiko Sistemik mengelola analisis keputusan dalam ketidakpastian untuk Konsorsium dan meninjau cara penerapannya di berbagai platform.
Laporan is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Jangan pernah mengirim data pribadi, rincian infrastruktur sensitif, atau apa pun yang tidak berhak Anda bagikan. Kontribusi ditinjau sebelum digunakan. Mengirimkannya tidak memberikan hak kepenulisan atau editorial, dan sponsor tidak pernah membeli sebuah temuan.
Informasi dan pertanyaan sudah terbuka hari ini. Sebuah pertanyaan menerima nomor referensi dan menyebutkan langkah berikutnya; lamaran, pembayaran, alokasi komputasi, dan pendaftaran hanya dibuka ketika tim, ketentuan, dan kapasitas tinjauannya tersedia.
Peta, data, dan gambar di situs ini ditampilkan untuk konteks dan informasi umum. Semua itu bukan nasihat, prakiraan, atau peringatan; batasan informasinya dijelaskan dalam Penafian dan Pemberitahuan Data.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information. We run no advertising. You can review your choices at any time through Privacy choices at the foot of every page.