GCRI · Agency
Decision analysis structures the choices technical assistance raises: which expert to engage, which engagement type fits, whether a declared conflict can be mitigated, whether to deploy to a field site, and whether to continue, rescope or close. It makes criteria, weights, uncertainty and value judgements explicit so that the holder of the decision can examine them.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In governance and institutions and development finance, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Competence, context experience, language, availability and independence are scored against criteria set before profiles are seen. Weights are disclosed, evidence labels are kept beside each score, and sensitivity to the weights is reported.
Before a field assignment, the decision holder asks whether a further security, health or access assessment would change the decision. Assessments that could change it are commissioned; those that could not are not.
Programmes set signposts and triggers in advance, such as counterpart turnover or a failed diagnostic, that prompt a review to continue, rescope or close. Options that keep later choices open are identified early.
团队遵循该方法时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
Agency · Decision analysis for technical · Run R-5933
| Requests received | Beta | requests, stated | 专家判断征询 |
| Teams formed | Uniform | teams, stated | 专家判断征询 |
| Experts on roster | 正常 | experts, stated | 专家判断征询 |
| 申报利益冲突 | Beta | declarations, stated | 专家判断征询 |
| 数据 | 角色 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|
| Competence evidence with labels | Scoring inputs | 已报告 |
| 结构化 专家判断征询 | Probabilities where records are absent | 估算 |
| Risk registers and incident records | Likelihood and consequence inputs | 已报告 |
| Cost estimates and budgets | Consequence of each option | 估算 |
| Evaluation findings | Retrospective evidence on similar choices | 已发布统计 |
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
The data classes behind decision analysis for technical assistance and what is recorded about each before it is used.
| 数据类别 | 已记录溯源 | 已说明分辨率 | 许可已核查 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 卫星影像，光学与雷达 | 传感器、处理级别、获取日期 | 像元大小和重访周期 | 每景 |
| 再分析与气候模式输出 | 模型、实验、成员、版本 | 格网与时间步长 | 每次发布 |
| 原位传感器和测量站 | 测站、仪器、校准记录 | 点位与采样率 | 每个网络 |
| 人口与资产暴露 | 方法、版本年份、输入来源 | 单元大小和单位 | 每次发布 |
| 边界与参考地理 | 制作者、版本、日期 | 比例尺 | 每个版本 |
| 核查 | 如何开展 |
|---|---|
| Weight sensitivity | Rankings are recomputed across plausible weight sets; choices that flip are flagged for the decision holder |
| Evidence and preference kept apart | Scores record what the evidence shows; weights record what the decision holder values, and each is documented separately |
| Panel independence | Everyone scoring or eliciting declares interests, and conflicted members recuse from the affected choices |
| 回顾性审查 | Past decisions are compared with outcomes to test whether criteria and probabilities were sound |
结果取决于征询得到的概率与偏好，而这些可能存在偏倚。深度不确定性可能使期望值比较产生误导。
Process explorer · Process
10 steps·4 个阶段
流程
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
依据公开来源对某一外部标准或方法的概述。它描述的是该框架的内容，而非任何运行记录。它并不表明 Nexus 或任何合作伙伴执行、认证或批准某一步骤。关口是该方法的一个步骤，绝不是 Nexus 的批准。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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