United Kingdom: country profile

01Overview

The United Kingdom enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions by 53% since 1990, to 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, and closed its last coal-fired power station in September 2024 [1] [18]. Its climate risks have moved from projection to record. 2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and temperatures reached 40.3 °C on 19 July 2022 [28] [29]; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England that summer [11]. About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially rising to around 8 million by 2050 [8], and England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action [9]. The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes [14], and studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970 [15]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

02At a glance

population, mid-2023

68.3 million

emissions, 2024

373 Mt CO₂e

mean temperature, 2022 record

10.03 °C

of food produced domestically

≈60 %

in the National Risk Register

89 risks

in CCRA3

61 risks and opportunities

03Key findings

04Domain reading

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

05Sector screen

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

06System couplings

The United Kingdom matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

07Risk objects

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

• Extreme heat

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  heatwaves above 35–40 °C

  Exposure

  older people; care homes; dense cities

  Vulnerability

  housing not designed for heat; limited cooling

  Capacity

  heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning

  Cascade

  CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power

  Horizon

  seasonal

• Surface-water and river flooding

  Reported EQL 4

  Driver

  extreme rainfall; storm sequences

  Exposure

  6.3 million properties in England [8]

  Vulnerability

  urban drainage capacity; cover affordability

  Capacity

  flood warnings; defences; Flood Re [21]

  Cascade

  WAT → INF, HLT, FIN

  Horizon

  annual

• Drought and water-supply shortfall

  Scenario EQL 3

  Driver

  dry summers; population growth

  Exposure

  South and East of England

  Vulnerability

  leakage; limited storage

  Capacity

  new reservoirs; transfers; demand management [9]

  Cascade

  WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO

  Horizon

  5–30 years

• Single points of failure in lifelines

  Reported EQL 3

  Driver

  fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node

  Exposure

  airports, hospitals, data centres, rail

  Vulnerability

  limited redundancy at key substations [19]

  Capacity

  resilience framework [27]; backup supply

  Cascade

  ENE → INF → DAT, TRD

  Horizon

  any time

08Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

09Scenario

Hot, dry summer in southern England. A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

10Lenses

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

• Technical Truth

  GCRI · KEY T

  The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk. Heat, flooding and water shortage are already recorded, not projected; electrification makes the grid central; and food and nature carry slower exposures. Evidence is strongest for emissions and flood exposure, weakest for lifeline interdependence.

• Public Meaning

  GRF · KEY M

  For most people risk arrives as a heatwave in a home built for cold, a flooded street or a hosepipe ban. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that debate weigh who carries the costs of flooding as cover changes.

• Capital Meaning

  GRA · KEY F

  Readiness implications only. Weather claims are high, flood cover rests on a transitional scheme until 2039 [21], and the clean-power transition needs grid investment [16]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

• Synthesis

  NEXUS

  The UK has cut emissions fast and observes its risks well, but adaptation lags. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry summer pathway, map lifeline single points of failure, and measure flood cover where it lands.

11Portfolio

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

122027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

1. A-01

   How would a hot, dry summer load health services, water supply, rail and power in southern England at the same time?

   INI-GBR-HDS-01 · hot, dry summer

2. A-02

   Where does surface-water flood risk fall on households, and how will cover change as Flood Re transitions by 2039?

   INI-GBR-FLD-02 · flood exposure and cover

3. A-03

   Which substations, data centres and lifeline nodes are single points of failure for other critical services?

   INI-GBR-INF-03 · lifeline interdependence

4. A-04

   How would a shock to imported food and energy pass into household prices and food security?

   INI-GBR-FOO-04 · import price transmission

5. A-05

   What surge capacity do the NHS and social care have for a 40 °C heatwave?

   INI-GBR-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness

6. A-06

   How do storm overflows, drought and heat combine to degrade river water quality?

   with GS-01 Water

7. A-07

   Which coastal communities face combined erosion, sea-level rise and storm surge?

   to be admitted in Q1 2027

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   national capability register

13Coupled risk, applied response

14Evidence by system

15Sources

40 numbered sources, editor first. Open the reference list and the data appendix.

16Cite, corrections and licence

The full citation, BibTeX and RIS are on the edition page. Corrections go through the gateway and are logged in Annex C. Text is CC BY 4.0.

Cite

Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) (Ed.). (2026). United Kingdom: country profile. In United Kingdom 2026 [Draft under review]. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium.

Review copy. The DOI is issued at deposit. Text under CC BY 4.0.