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GCRIQuantum TechnologiesIn development
Dependencies and consequences

Dependencies and consequences

Quantum technology depends on rare materials, specialized components, cryogenics, lasers and scarce expertise, and its effects reach every system that relies on cryptography, precise timing or navigation. This page sets out the causal, physical, economic and social links between quantum technologies and other systems, how disruption could travel along them and how the platform analyses them. A dependency map describes connections; it is not a forecast of when any capability will arrive.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Quantum, Cyber and digital resilience
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

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Layers 3

Connected activity, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For dependencies and consequences, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, true-colour imagery and population density with night lights tonight from NASA GIBS, framed on Japan and Korea; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA/NOAA VIIRS · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2ASources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

STEM methods
5
Canonical methods this field applies
Topics
8
Subject pages in the field
Counterparts
5
Platforms in shared fields at GCRI, GRF and GRA
Report series
2
Nexus Reports series it contributes to
01In brief

The short answer.

Dependencies and consequences in Quantum Technologies describe how quantum as well as cyber and digital resilience connect to other systems through physical, economic, social and ecological links, and how stress travels along them toward fields such as those of AI and Digital Governance and Fintech Nexus. Every dependency map states its assumptions, data and uncertainty; it describes connections, not a forecast.

02Canvas

One field, three institutions.

Canvas · one field, three institutionsDesign, not a record
One field, three institutions: Quantum Technologies and its counterpartsGCRI studies the field as science, GRF governs and convenes it, GRA builds shared financial understanding; the Nexus Universe tests work across them and the competent authorities decide. Design of the arrangement, not a record.

Fig.How GCRI, GRF and GRA share one field while the authorities decide. Design, not a record.

03Console

Field overview, in outline.

The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.

Field overview: the screen's structure, terms and states for Quantum technologies.Placeholder names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
04What quantum depends on

Upstream dependencies.

DependencyWhy it mattersExposure
Cryogenics and heliumMany qubit technologies operate near absolute zeroSpecialized refrigeration and constrained helium supply
Lasers, photonics and vacuum systemsControl and readout for trapped ions, atoms and photonsFew specialized suppliers
Advanced materials and fabricationSuperconducting circuits, isotopically pure materials, detectorsConcentrated manufacturing capacity
Classical computing and control electronicsError correction and control require fast classical processingShares supply chains with semiconductors
Skilled peoplePhysics, engineering and software expertiseSmall, internationally mobile talent pool
05What depends on quantum outcomes

Downstream consequences.

Digital trust

Cryptography

Communications, payments, software updates and identity that rely on public-key cryptography must migrate before a capable quantum computer exists.

Timing and navigation

Precision

Quantum clocks and sensors could reduce dependence on satellite navigation, which matters for telecoms, power grids and finance.

Economy and security

Strategic competition

Export controls, research security and concentration of capability shape who benefits and who is exposed.

06How disruption could travel

Mechanisms.

The cryptographic channel is the clearest. Many systems share the same algorithms and libraries, so a weakness in one class of algorithm is a common-mode failure across sectors. Long-lived devices, embedded systems and archived data extend exposure far into the future, and a migration is only as strong as the slowest supplier. Payments and Market Infrastructure at The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines what this means for financial plumbing.

A second channel is expectation. Overstated claims can redirect investment and policy, and a correction can strand both. The platform therefore reports demonstrated results separately from projections; see quantum computing and responsible quantum innovation.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
InterdependencyA two-way dependency between infrastructures, such as power needing telecoms for control while telecoms need power to run.
Cascading riskRisk that a failure in one system or component triggers failures in others that depend on it.
Compound eventTwo or more hazards or drivers occurring together or in sequence whose joint impact exceeds what either would cause alone, such as drought followed by intense rain; IPCC assessments use the term.
Dependency mappingTracing the people, processes, technology, facilities and suppliers a service relies on.
08Method

How dependencies are analysed.

Analysis uses probability and statistics to treat uncertain timelines as distributions rather than dates, and cryptographic analysis to map where vulnerable algorithms sit. Each map states its assumptions and uncertainty; see methods and uncertainty. Back to the field overview.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Is a dependency map a forecast of when quantum computers will break encryption?
No. It shows where systems would be exposed and how disruption could spread. Timelines are uncertain and are reported as such.
Why does the slowest supplier matter?
Because a system is only as secure as its weakest component. If one supplier in a chain has not migrated, data passing through it may remain exposed.
Why are skills a dependency?
Because the field needs rare combinations of physics, engineering and software expertise, and a shortage slows research, deployment and the cryptographic migration alike. See quantum workforce.
Quantum Technologies

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.