GCRI · Systemic Risk Management
Systemic Risk Management
Risk management that sees interdependence, uncertainty, cascading loss and the human consequences of decisions. Systemic Risk Management is an established platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation.
- STEM methods
- 6
- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 8
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 5
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
- 3
- Reports series it contributes to
How the work runs.
Risk register
Enterprise A · Review cycle Q3
Residual risk
likelihood × impact, risks per cell
Counts of risks per cell. Shading follows the appetite bands.
Above appetite
| Supplier concentration | Procurement | High | ▲ 2 |
| Data centre flooding | Operations | High | ▲ 0 |
| Model error in pricing | Finance | Medium | ▲ 0 |
| Key staff loss | People | Medium | ▼ 1 |
Risk management process, after the international standard
- Scope, context, criteriaset
- Identifytaxonomy
- Analyselikelihood · impact
- Evaluatevs appetite
- Treatplans
- Monitor and reviewKRIs
- Record and reportboard
Treatment actions
- T-11Dual-source critical componentOwner: procurement · overdue13 d late
- T-14Move backup site above flood levelOwner: operationsdue 30 d
- T-17Independent model validationOwner: financedue 28 d
Fig.Risk register: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
How work moves in this field.
A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.
- Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Systemic Risk Management
- Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Systemic Risk Management
- Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Systemic Risk Management
- Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Systemic Risk Management
- Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Systemic Risk Management
- Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Systemic Risk Management
- Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Systemic Risk Management
- Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Systemic Risk Management
Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.
- Labs
- Foundry
- Universe
- Nexus Standards
- Reports
- Risk Academy
- Competent authority (outside the programme)
Stocks, flows, delays and a tipping threshold.
Two stocks, pressure and adaptive capacity, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Asia; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Growth of pressure
- 6.0% a year
- Efficacy of capacity in reducing pressure
- 4.0% a year
- Investment response to perceived pressure
- 20%
- Perception delay
- 4.0 years
- Tipping threshold of pressure
- 60 index
- Amplification past the threshold
- 2.0 times
- Years simulated
- 50 years
Readouts
- Peak pressure
- 113 index
- Capacity at the end
- 186 index
- Years over the threshold
- 15.8 years
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Pressure | Capacity | Perceived |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
Methods
- System dynamics Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
- Critical transitions and tipping points Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
- Causal loop diagram Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Systemic Risk Management in Foundry
- Tested at Systemic Risk Management in Universe
- Codified in Systemic Risks in Standards
- Published in Systemic Risk Management in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academy
The questions this field works on.
Risk governance and appetite
Authority, objectives and acceptable exposure.
TopicIdentification and risk taxonomy
Risk identification beyond registers.
TopicCascades and interdependence
Network, common-cause and correlated failures.
TopicQuantitative and qualitative methods
Probability, uncertainty and judgement.
TopicScenario and stress testing
Challenging plans and assumptions.
TopicResilience engineering
Continuity, recovery and adaptive capacity.
TopicEnterprise and public risk
Private, sovereign and community mandates.
TopicAssurance and correction
Evidence, review and methods correction.
Model Systemic Risk Management as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Global and systemic risk
- Compound and cascading hazard standards Mechanism
- Financial stability and prudential risk Mechanism
- Supply chain and trade risk Cascade
- Future generations and long-term risk Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H120Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)NRS-C6Systemic and cascading riskNRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H94Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)NRS-H60Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
Observation
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
What Systemic Risk Management does.
Systemic risk management is the identification, assessment and treatment of risks that arise from dependencies between systems, so that a shock in one travels into others. It covers governance and appetite, shared taxonomies, cascade analysis, quantitative and qualitative methods, scenarios and stress tests, resilience engineering and assurance. GCRI prepares methods and evidence; boards, governments and supervisors decide.
Its community
ERM leaders; risk scientists; resilience managers; enterprise executives.
Its methods
Risk ontology; fault and causal networks; probabilistic methods; adaptive governance.
Its outputs
Systems-risk primer; dependency analyses; decision-method guide.
How Systemic Risk Management is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Model, equations and assumptions
The model structure used for Systemic Risk Management, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacityEAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pkxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Assumption | Why it is made | How it is tested |
|---|---|---|
| Hazard and exposure are independent within an event | Keeps the loss integral tractable | Compare with a copula fit on joint records |
| Couplings are linear near the operating point | Lets shocks propagate through A | Perturb beyond the linear range and compare |
| Vulnerability curves transfer between places | Local curves are rarely available | Validate against observed losses where they exist |
- Inputs
- versioned datasets with provenance
- Outputs
- distributions, never single numbers
- Code
- released with the model card and tests
- Reproduction
- same data, code, environment and seed
Sensitivity analysis
Which inputs move the result for Systemic Risk Management most, one at a time across their stated ranges.
What Systemic Risk Management studies, and who decides on risk.
Systemic Risk Management, studies how organisations and governments identify, assess and treat risks that travel through dependencies, and develops methods national teams can apply. Boards, governments and supervisors set risk appetite and decide treatment; the platform prepares methods and evidence and takes no risk decision for anyone.
Risk registers, heat maps and scores shown on these pages are illustrations of method, never an assessment of an organisation or country. A risk matrix is a communication device with known flaws, and is never the only tool.
Hazards and exposure in Asia.
Population density, flood water and daytime surface heat over Asia, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on Asia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
Systemic risk is where the five domains meet.
- WaterHow this field couples to itDrought propagates into power, food and health; risk registers that list water alone miss the cascade.
- EnergyHow this field couples to itGrid failure is the most frequent common-mode failure across lifelines.
- FoodHow this field couples to itFood price shocks reach public budgets, social protection and stability.
- HealthHow this field couples to itPandemics showed how health shocks reach supply chains, schools and finances.
- BiodiversityHow this field couples to itEcosystem degradation removes buffers slowly, so registers need slow-onset risks too.
Where risk management findings go.
Methods are designed for the Methods and Technical series and cross-system findings for the Global Systems Risk and Resilience series. Risk models would carry model cards under NS-12 of the proposed Nexus Standards.
- Risk managers can share anonymised cascade cases.
- Researchers can contribute evaluations of risk assessment techniques.
- Public bodies can propose a national risk assessment method for review.
Most risk practice still treats risks one at a time.
Conventional risk management lists risks in a register, scores each for likelihood and impact, and assigns an owner. That works well for many operational risks. It works poorly when risks share causes, interact or spread through networks of suppliers, infrastructure and markets.
The largest losses of recent decades came from interactions rather than single events: a pandemic that closed supply chains and labour markets together; financial stress that moved from one market to many through common exposures and funding links; a regional storm that disabled power, telecommunications and transport at once. In each case, risks that looked independent on a register turned out to share a cause or a path.
Three features make these risks hard. First, dependence: when one failure raises the chance of others, simple sums of individual risks understate the chance of a large joint loss. Second, deep uncertainty: for many systemic threats there is no reliable frequency data, and experts disagree on the structure of the problem, not only on the numbers. Third, distribution: the people who bear the consequences of a decision are often not the people who take it, so a choice that looks prudent to one organisation can shift risk onto workers, communities or the public purse.
Systemic risk management responds by mapping dependencies explicitly, using scenarios and stress tests to challenge plans, treating uncertainty as information rather than noise, and building resilience so that systems can absorb and recover from surprises they did not foresee.
A methods discipline for risk in connected systems.
Systemic Risk Management owns the risk-method discipline in the GCRI portfolio. It is distinct from technical infrastructure platforms and from single-hazard specialist sites, which apply these methods to their own systems.
Systems-risk primer
A plain account of systemic risk concepts, from common-cause failure to tipping points, for practitioners and decision-makers.
Dependency analyses
Methods and worked examples for mapping how losses travel between organisations, sectors and infrastructure.
Decision-method guide
How to choose and combine probabilistic, scenario and judgement-based methods for a given decision and its uncertainty.
Methods include risk ontology, fault and causal networks, probabilistic methods and adaptive governance. The platform does not certify risk frameworks, audit organisations or set risk appetite for anyone.
Built on named methods, linked to governance and finance.
Its STEM foundation is decision analysis under uncertainty and scenario design and stress testing, which it stewards for the Consortium, together with probability and statistics, network science and contagion, reliability and resilience engineering and uncertainty quantification and model validation. Foundry systems that serve the field include NXS-DSS (decision cases and deliberation) for scenarios and decision analysis and The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) for data, evidence and risk products.
The Global Risks Forum (GRF) convenes institutions on the governance side through Governance Nexus, Policy Nexus and Foresight Nexus. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) builds shared industry understanding through Financial Stability and Actuarial and Quantitative Risk. See all counterparts.
The areas of risk management and systemic risk this platform takes on.
Systemic Risk Management studies how organisations and governments identify, assess and treat risks that travel through dependencies: between suppliers and buyers, between infrastructure networks, between public services and the people who rely on them. Its pages set out the governance, taxonomies, cascade analysis, quantitative and qualitative methods, scenarios and assurance that this work needs, with every value labelled by its evidence and every limit stated. It prepares methods and evidence; boards, governments and supervisors decide.
Risk governance and appetite
Who owns a risk, how much of it an institution is prepared to carry, and how that position is set, reviewed and reported.
Identification and taxonomy
Shared names and classes for hazards, threats and consequences so that registers can be compared and combined.
Cascades and interdependence
How a shock in one system propagates through dependencies into others, and where it is amplified or absorbed.
Quantitative and qualitative methods
Probabilistic models, expert elicitation, matrices and narratives, used in combination and with their limits stated.
Scenarios and stress tests
Severe but plausible events used to test plans, capacity and buffers before a real shock does.
Resilience engineering
Designing systems and organisations to anticipate, absorb, adapt to and recover from disruption.
Enterprise and public risk
Risk management inside firms and inside government, and the points where the two depend on each other.
Assurance and correction
Independent review of risk processes, learning from incidents and near misses, and correcting records when evidence changes.
Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Every claim on Systemic Risk Management rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.
How this works across the six pillars.
Systemic Risk Management works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
Programme yearAll phases
Route
The whole programme
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- Pillars
- 6 of 6
- Handoffs
- 18 of 18
- Loops
- 17 closed
Handoffs in play
- F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
- F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
- F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review
and 14 more
- LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
- FoundryWhere methods, data and models become reproducible builds, each run with its inputs, version and limits on record.Systemic Risk Management in FoundryFoundry
- UniverseWhere a build is tested under controlled conditions with independent evaluators, so a method’s skill is measured, not assumed.Systemic Risk Management in Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus StandardsWhere methods, identifiers and data schemas are codified in the open and corrected when a test finds a fault.Systemic Risks in Standardsnexustandards.com
- ReportsWhere findings are published with their method, uncertainty and evidence class, and corrected as new versions.Systemic Risk Management in ReportsReports
- Risk AcademyWhere methods and systems are taught on real data and real places, by working the case, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Risk Science and Methods in Academyrisksacademy.com
What the work is read against.
The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.
| Framework or standard | Body | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| ISO 31000 Risk management guidelines | International Organization for Standardization (ISO/TC 262) | Principles, a framework and a process for managing risk in any organisation |
| IEC 31010 Risk assessment techniques | IEC and ISO | Guidance on selecting and applying techniques for identifying, analysing and evaluating risk |
| Enterprise Risk Management: Integrating with Strategy and Performance | Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) | Components and principles linking enterprise risk to strategy, culture and performance |
| Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction | United Nations, with UNDRR as custodian | Priorities, targets and indicators for reducing disaster risk, including systemic and cascading risk |
| Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks | OECD Council | Principles for national all-hazards risk assessment, preparedness and whole-of-society governance |
| Guidelines for the Governance of Systemic Risks | International Risk Governance Center (IRGC), EPFL | A stepwise approach to exploring systems, building scenarios and adapting strategies for systemic risk |
| UNDRR-ISC Hazard Information Profiles | UNDRR and the International Science Council | Standard definitions and descriptions of hazards for use in risk registers and assessments |
| Three Lines Model | The Institute of Internal Auditors | Roles of management, risk and compliance functions and internal audit in governance and assurance |
| Global Risk Assessment Framework | UNDRR | A framework for understanding and assessing systemic risk across sectors and scales |
The same field, seen three ways.
GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Systemic Risk Management links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.
- Policy NexusInstitutionGRFShared fieldRisk management and systemic risk
- Foresight NexusInstitutionGRFShared fieldRisk management and systemic risk
- Governance NexusInstitutionGRFShared fieldRisk management and systemic risk
- Financial StabilityInstitutionGRAShared fieldRisk management and systemic risk
- Actuarial and Quantitative RiskInstitutionGRAShared fieldMethods and modelling
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- ISO 31000:2018 Risk management, guidelines (ISO)
- IEC 31010:2019 Risk management, risk assessment techniques (ISO/IEC)
- Enterprise Risk Management: Integrating with Strategy and Performance (COSO, 2017)
- The IIA’s Three Lines Model (Institute of Internal Auditors, 2020)
- IRGC Guidelines for the Governance of Systemic Risks (EPFL IRGC, 2018)
- Nexus Standards, the proposed NS series (nexustandards.com)
Pages in Systemic Risk Management.
Mandate and publisher
PageField overview
PageResearch and evidence
PageInnovation and practical technology
PageProgrammes and projects
PageData and technical methods
PageSpecialist community
PageLearning and professional development
PageEvents and technical dialogues
PageResearch and publications
PageParticipation paths
PageContact the specialist team
PageTrust, rights and status
PageSTEM foundation of Systemic Risk Management
PageHow work moves in this field
PageBuild in Foundry
PageTest in Universe
PagePublish in Reports
PageThe same field across the Consortium
PageTopics
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
Questions and answers.
Who publishes Systemic Risk Management?
Is Systemic Risk Management active?
How can I contribute?
Where are findings published?
Which values on this platform are real?
How do I report an error?
Is this a consultancy or a standards body?
How is it different from other GCRI platforms?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
How Systemic Risk Management works.
Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.
Systemic Risk Management
How Systemic Risk Management works
Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports
A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.
01 Scope
- 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
- 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
02 Evidence
- 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
- 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
03 Work
- 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
- 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
04 Publish
- 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
- 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.
Systemic Risk Management home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.
Take part in Systemic Risk Management.
Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Systemic Risk Management platform.
National institutions
Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters
Sectors and professions
Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Systemic Risk Management. Participate
Learning
Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning
Standards
Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups
Communities and research
Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team
| Open call | Seeks | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Founding call for experts to the working groups CALL-FOUNDING-EXPERTS | expert, editor, chair | 2026-12-15 |
| Open nomination for the three independent expert seats of the Global Standards Council CALL-GSC-IND | council-member | 2026-12-01 |
| Nominations of interim regional members (applies only if the transitional provision is decided) CALL-GSC-REG | council-member | 2026-12-15 |
| Review of the wave-1 risk core outlines (C1, C2, C3, C4, C8, C10, C11) CALL-REVIEW-WAVE1 | contributor | 2027-01-31 |
| Experts for the core standards of risk science: uncertainty and evidence grading, scales, structured expert judgement, tolerability, extremes and compound events, catastrophic and existential risk, ethics and equity, units and measurement (NRS-C17 to NRS-C24) CALL-CORE-SCIENCE | expert, editor, chair | 2027-01-31 |
| Independent reviewers for the families of the hazard atlas, three from at least two regions for each family (NHS2-R19), priority families first CALL-ATLAS-REVIEW | expert | 2027-03-31 |
| Members of the interim Frontier Safety Review Panel and red-team reviewers (biosafety and biosecurity, AI safety and security, critical-infrastructure security); applications treated in confidence CALL-FRONTIER-SAFETY-REVIEW | expert | 2026-11-30 |
| Experts in ontology, metrology, software verification and conformity assessment for the requirement register, the NHS-2 machine representation, the conformance test suites and the conformity assessment scheme CALL-CONFORMANCE-ONTOLOGY | expert, editor | 2027-01-31 |
Calls past their closing date are hidden automatically. Every call, proposal and route: open areas and calls.
Gather the cell
Bring together three to seven people with complementary skills: data, field practice, policy and communication.
Register it
Write to the team with the cell’s name, members, area and region. You receive a reference and a contact. Write to the team
Choose a charter
Pick one focus: research and evidence, data and maps, standards review, or community preparedness.
Learn together
Follow shared study paths at Risk Academy, with practice and a record of every course completed. Hazards and resilience
Lead and report
Hold regular sessions. Publish what the cell learns through Reports. Bring findings to the working groups. Working groups
What a national team or a local community can do on The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) today.
Your country’s profile
Open risk profiles for 195 countries, with sources and licences on every value. Open the Index
Correct or reply
Correct a value or reply for your country. The change is logged with its effect. Open the Index
Offer data
Offer a dataset. It enters through the licence gate, with your credit. Open the Index
Every figure on this page is indexed: hazards, climate, conflict, Asia.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageSystemic Risk ManagementMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of hazards, climate, conflict and Asia.Public API
Series in this context hazards, climate, conflict
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Conflict
- THDisaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.NXS-GRX-AR-000111Hazards · Climate · Conflict
- GSGlobal CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.NXS-GRX-AR-000068Hazards · Infrastructure · Climate
- GSGlobal ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.NXS-GRX-AR-000065Climate · Hazards · Finance
Country profiles Asia
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Atmosphere and weatherNXS-GRX-AR-000135
- Solid EarthNXS-GRX-AR-000138
- Systemic and compound eventsNXS-GRX-AR-000148
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.