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GCRISystemic Risk ManagementIn development
STEM foundation

STEM foundation of Systemic Risk Management

The science, technology, engineering and mathematics Systemic Risk Management rests on. Each method has a canonical page in the STEM Commons, hosted by GCRI, and a page here on how it is applied in this field.

Open Decision analysis for risk management Back to Systemic Risk Management
Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Risk management and systemic risk, Methods and modelling
Canvas · methods feeding this platformDesign, not a record
STEM foundation of Systemic Risk Management: a cascade across interdependent systemsA hazard hits one system; dependencies carry the failure into others; impact grows until buffers, redundancy or restoration priorities stop it; the analysis ranks the links to strengthen. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.The methods this platform draws on and what each one feeds. Design, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

The Systemic Risk Management STEM foundation is the set of canonical methods its findings depend on, from decision analysis under uncertainty to uncertainty quantification and model validation. For the Consortium, Systemic Risk Management stewards decision analysis under uncertainty as well as scenario design and stress testing. Each method has a canonical STEM Commons page and a page here on its use in the risk management and systemic risk field.

02Geography

Hazards and exposure in Asia.

For STEM foundation of systemic risk management, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on Asia; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Hazards and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For STEM foundation of systemic risk management, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on Asia; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2ASources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026

03Methods

The methods behind the field.

  1. Decision analysis under uncertaintyMulti-criteria treatment choice · Decision trees for contingent plansSteward · Systemic Risk ManagementApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. Scenario design and stress testingCross-sector scenario design · Reverse stress testing · Second-round effectsSteward · Systemic Risk ManagementApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. Probability and statisticsFrequency and severity modelling · Dependence between risks · Combining data and judgementSteward · Systems Science and ModellingApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  4. Network science and contagionDependency network mapping · Centrality and concentration · Failure propagation simulationSteward · Systems Science and ModellingApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  5. Reliability and resilience engineeringRedundancy and diversity design · Graceful degradation planning · Recovery time analysisSteward · Critical InfrastructureApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  6. Uncertainty quantification and model validationPropagating input uncertainty · Separating kinds of uncertainty · Deep uncertainty framingSteward · Systems Science and ModellingApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
04Method mix

Why risk management needs this combination of methods.

Risk management combines decision analysis and scenario design for choices, probability and uncertainty quantification for estimates, network science for dependencies and resilience engineering for recovery.

05Why it matters

Grounding makes claims checkable.

When a finding names the methods it depends on, a reader can see its assumptions and limits, and an expert in that method can challenge it.

06Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
STEM CommonsThe shared reference of science, technology, engineering and mathematics methods for the Nexus network, hosted by GCRI, with one canonical page per method and a named steward platform.
Steward platformThe platform that maintains the canonical description of a method in the STEM Commons and reviews how other platforms apply it.
Decision analysis under uncertaintyDecision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict.
Scenario design and stress testingScenario design and stress testing construct plausible, severe future conditions to examine how systems and institutions would perform.
07Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Pages

Pages in STEM foundation of Systemic Risk Management.

Method

Decision analysis for risk management

Method

Scenario design and stress testing

Method

Probability and statistics for risk

Method

Network science for systemic risk

Method

Reliability and resilience engineering

Method

Uncertainty quantification for risk

09Questions

Questions and answers.

What is a steward platform?
The platform that maintains the canonical description of a method and reviews how it is applied across the Consortium.
Related

Around Systemic Risk Management.

Systemic Risk Management

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