The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Supply networks are where many systemic risks meet. A disruption in trade can start in the climate, in a cyber incident, in a conflict or in a policy decision, and it can end in higher food prices, idle factories, delayed energy projects or strained public finances. This page sets out the causal, physical, economic, social and ecological links between trade networks and other systems, as part of the field overview.
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For dependencies and consequences, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
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Dependencies and consequences in Trade and Strategic Resources describe how trade, resources and supply chains as well as industry and robotics connect to other systems through physical, economic, social and ecological links, and how stress travels along them toward fields such as those of Innovation Nexus and Private Equity Nexus. Every dependency map states its assumptions, data and uncertainty; it describes connections, not a forecast.
Fig.How GCRI, GRF and GRA share one field while the authorities decide. Design, not a record.
The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.
| Source system | Mechanism | Example of effect |
|---|---|---|
| Climate and hazards | Storms, floods, heat and drought affect ports, roads, rail and inland waterways | Low river levels restrict barge loads; storms close ports |
| Critical infrastructure | Power, telecommunications and digital systems run ports and logistics | A cyber incident halts terminal operations |
| Geopolitics and conflict | Route closures, sanctions and export restrictions | Shipping diverts to longer routes, raising time and cost |
| Health | Outbreaks reduce workforce and close facilities | Factory and port closures interrupt flows |
Grain, fertiliser and fuel disruptions raise food prices, especially in import-dependent countries. See food and energy trade.
Component shortages halt production in sectors that share an input, with effects on employment.
Import price shocks feed inflation, trade balances and fiscal pressure, studied by Economic Development.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Interdependency | A two-way dependency between infrastructures, such as power needing telecoms for control while telecoms need power to run. |
| Cascading risk | Risk that a failure in one system or component triggers failures in others that depend on it. |
| Compound event | Two or more hazards or drivers occurring together or in sequence whose joint impact exceeds what either would cause alone, such as drought followed by intense rain; IPCC assessments use the term. |
| Dependency mapping | Tracing the people, processes, technology, facilities and suppliers a service relies on. |
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.