G-P12 · TOPIC · spatial-temporal-evidenceGCRI dossier · service level R0
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Topic dossier · Space and Earth Observation

Spatial temporal evidence

Satellite images become evidence only after calibration, atmospheric correction, georeferencing, cloud masking and validation. Long records need consistency across sensors and decades. This page sets out how raw observations become analysis-ready data and validated products, how accuracy is assessed and reported, and what evidence serves the users who rely on maps and time series built from space.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Earth observation, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For spatial temporal evidence, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, land cover and night lights with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Arctic; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA HLS S30 · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2ASources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

01In brief

The short answer.

Satellite data accuracy is how closely products derived from Earth observation match reality, established through calibration, correction, geolocation and validation against independent reference data. Analysis-ready data and harmonised multi-sensor records make long time series reliable, with accuracy reported per class and with intervals.

02Console

EO tasking and products, in outline.

The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.

EO tasking and products

Spatial temporal evidence · Flood basin AOI · Activation ACT-531

Rapid mappingGCRI · Space and Earth Observation

Passes over the area

next 6 passes

SAT-1SAT-2SAT-3SAT-4Swath over the area of interestN

Acquisitions

P-1Radarn/aProcessed
P-2Optical79Cloudy
P-3Radarn/aDownlinking
P-4Optical22Scheduled

Product chain

  1. TaskAOI
  2. Acquireradar
  3. Downlinkstation 2
  4. ProcessARD
  5. Map floodchange
  6. Validatesamples
  7. Deliveruser agency
EO tasking and products: the screen's structure, terms and states for Spatial temporal evidence.Placeholder names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
03The question

Spatial temporal evidence: how the risk develops.

Ground truth, resolution and uncertainty. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.

Mechanism

Corrections turn signals into measurements

Radiometric and atmospheric correction convert recorded signals into surface reflectance or backscatter. Errors in correction propagate into every derived product.

Mechanism

Geolocation must match

Images must align precisely with each other and with maps. Misregistration of even a pixel creates false change along edges.

Mechanism

Records span many sensors

Long time series combine sensors with different characteristics. Harmonisation is needed so that change reflects the ground, not the instrument.

Mechanism

Validation needs ground truth

Classified maps and estimates must be checked against independent reference data, and accuracy reported with confidence intervals.

04Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Atmospheric correctionRemoving the effects of the atmosphere to retrieve surface reflectance from satellite signals.
User's accuracyThe probability that a mapped class actually matches the class on the ground.
HarmonisationAdjusting data from different sensors so they can be combined consistently.
05Indicators

What is measured, and how well.

Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.

IndicatorUnitCadenceSource typeLabel
Overall map accuracypercent with confidence intervalper productAccuracy assessment against reference dataESTIMATED
Class-specific user's and producer's accuracypercentper classAccuracy assessmentESTIMATED
Geolocation errormetresper productGeometric validationOBSERVED
Products meeting analysis-ready data specificationcountper assessmentCEOS ARD assessmentsOFFICIAL
Reference samples per classcountper assessmentValidation designDECLARED
Time series gapspercent of expected observations missingper locationArchive analysisOBSERVED
06Canvas

From sources to decisions.

The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.

Pipeline canvas · Spatial temporal evidence as a run graphDesign, not a record
Spatial temporal evidence: systematic evidence synthesisA question is framed with its owner and a protocol registered; records are searched, screened and checked for eligibility by two reviewers; data are extracted, synthesised and graded for certainty before a brief is written. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.

07Sources

Where the evidence comes from.

Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.

SourceWhat it givesLicence class
CEOS Analysis Ready Data specifications and assessmentsProcessing requirements and product statusPublic, CEOS terms
Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (NASA)Consistent surface reflectance from both missionsOpen, NASA data policy
Good practice guidance on accuracy assessment, such as Olofsson and othersMethods for estimating area and accuracyLicence per publication
Digital Earth Africa and Digital Earth AustraliaAnalysis-ready data cubes and validated productsOpen, CC BY 4.0
CEOS Working Group on Calibration and Validation resourcesCalibration and validation protocols and test sitesPublic, CEOS terms
08Decisions

Who decides, and what the evidence serves.

Space and Earth Observation prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.

Who decidesThe questionEvidence this page serves
Mapping and statistics agenciesWhether EO-derived statistics meet quality needsAccuracy assessments; quality statements
Data providersHow to process and document productsARD pipelines; harmonisation methods
Users of EO mapsHow much confidence to place in a productQuality statements with intervals

Outputs this topic produces

  • Accuracy assessment designs with stratified sampling
  • Analysis-ready data pipelines
  • Harmonisation methods for multi-sensor records
  • Product quality statements
09Core questions

What experts ask.

Evidence specialists ask what a product can support and with what confidence.

  • How was the product validated, against what reference data, and in which regions and seasons?
  • What is the smallest feature or shortest event the product can reliably detect?
  • How is uncertainty expressed for each pixel, region or estimate, and does it reach users?
  • How do classification errors affect area estimates and trends derived from maps?
  • When are satellite estimates fit for a decision, and when is additional ground evidence needed?
10Mechanisms and drivers

Where error comes from.

Error enters at every stage: sensor noise and calibration, atmospheric correction, geolocation, the algorithm that converts measurements into a variable, and the classification rules that turn continuous signals into categories. A pixel often mixes several land covers. Temporal sampling can miss short events, such as a flood peak that passes between overpasses. Validation data may come from places and seasons that differ from where the product is used.

A well-established finding in remote sensing is that simply counting classified pixels can give biased area estimates. Statistically rigorous approaches combine a map with a probability sample of reference observations to estimate area and its confidence interval. The same principle applies widely: evidence from space is strongest when paired with designed ground sampling.

11Methods and data

How the evidence is built, and where it stops.

  1. 01

    Accuracy assessment

    Comparing products with independent reference data using sampling designs from spatial statistics. Reference data has its own errors.

  2. 02

    Uncertainty propagation

    Carrying error from inputs to outputs. Correlated errors are often ignored, understating uncertainty.

  3. 03

    Ground observation

    Field surveys, in-situ sensors and citizen observations. They are sparse and unevenly distributed.

  4. 04

    Scale analysis

    Testing how results change with resolution using geospatial information systems. Aggregation can hide local extremes.

13Questions

Questions and answers.

What is analysis-ready data?
Satellite data processed to a minimum standard, such as surface reflectance with cloud masks and precise geolocation, so users can analyse it without further preprocessing.
How accurate are satellite maps?
It depends on the product and class. Good practice reports accuracy with confidence intervals from independent reference samples, per class as well as overall.
Why combine Landsat and Sentinel-2?
Together they observe more often than either alone. Harmonisation adjusts their differences so the combined record is consistent.
Why not simply count pixels to measure area?
Because classification errors do not cancel out. Rigorous area estimation combines the map with a sample of reference observations to correct bias and give a confidence interval.
What is ground truth?
Observations made on the ground, or from higher-quality sources, used to validate satellite products. It is a reference, not perfect truth, and its own errors should be stated.
Should every map show uncertainty?
Every product should state its accuracy and how it was assessed. How that is displayed depends on the audience, but it should never be omitted.
Space and Earth Observation

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