The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Topics at Systems Science and Modelling: the pages in this section are listed below, each with its own scope and status.
The Systems Science and Modelling topics are the eight subject dossiers of its field, among them model intercomparison, uncertainty and validation, and coupled systems modelling. Each dossier sets out how the risk develops, what is measured and in which units, the public sources and their licences, the methods, who decides and the limits of the evidence.
GCRI is a research, development and policy institution. It is not a regulator, and it does not certify, license or approve; its findings carry their methods and uncertainty.
The topics serve modellers and analysts, from intercomparison and validation through coupling, networks and agent-based models to optimisation, digital twins and reproducibility. A reader looks for which methods fit a cross-system question and how to show their limits. Each topic links to the method pages it uses.
The topics cover intercomparison, validation, coupling, networks, agent-based models, optimisation, digital twins and reproducibility.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Ensemble | A set of model runs from different models or settings used to estimate a range of outcomes. |
| Model credibility | The degree of trust that a model is fit for a specific use, based on evidence. |
| Loose coupling | Linking models by passing outputs between them at intervals without tight feedback. |
| Threshold model | A cascade model in which a node fails or adopts once enough of its neighbours have. |
| Agent | An autonomous entity in a model, such as a person, household or firm, with its own state and rules. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Comparing models of the same system, and what disagreement tells you.
TopicQuantifying uncertainty, validation against observations and the limits of calibration.
TopicLinking water, energy, food, health and infrastructure models without hiding assumptions.
TopicNetwork science for dependency, contagion and cascading failure.
TopicBehaviour, adaptation and emergence in social-technical systems.
TopicRobust and adaptive decisions when futures are deeply uncertain.
TopicWhat a twin can and cannot represent, and how it is kept honest.
TopicVersioned models, data lineage and re-runnable results.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.