GCRI · Trade and Strategic Resources
Semiconductors and components
Semiconductors are made through a long value chain of design, specialised materials, manufacturing equipment, fabrication and assembly, with several steps concentrated in a few firms and places. Shortages can stall vehicles, medical devices and infrastructure. This page sets out how the chip value chain is structured, where it concentrates, how disruptions propagate, and what evidence serves the governments and industries that depend on it.
Semiconductors and components in seven parts.
- 01The questionSemiconductors and components: how the risk develops
- 02Across the domainsChips sit inside the control systems of every domain
- 03IndicatorsWhat is measured, and how well
- 04SourcesWhere the evidence comes from
- 05DecisionsWho decides, and what the evidence serves
- 06Core questionsWhat experts ask about semiconductor supply
- 07Mechanisms and driversWhy the chain is fragile
Semiconductors and components: how the risk develops.
Electronics, advanced materials and fabrication inputs. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Each step is specialised
Design tools, wafers, speciality gases and chemicals, lithography equipment, fabrication and packaging are each dominated by few suppliers. A bottleneck at any step limits output.
Fabs take years and vast capital
Leading fabrication plants cost billions and take years to build. Capacity cannot be added quickly when demand changes or supply is disrupted.
Geography concentrates risk
Advanced fabrication and assembly cluster in a few regions exposed to earthquakes, drought, power outages and geopolitical tension.
Shortages hit downstream industries
Products need many chips, including mature, low-cost ones. A shortage of a single component can halt production lines far from where chips are made.
Supplier tier map.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Supplier tier map
Semiconductors and components · Assembly cluster · Bill of materials BOM-059
Tier mapping
- Tier 112 suppliers
- Tier 247
- Tier 383
- Raw materials5
Concentration
| Rare earth magnet | 70 | 4002 | None qualified | High |
| Gallium | 61 | 4836 | Recycling pilot | High |
| Copper wire | 40 | 1196 | Two qualified | Low |
| Lithium cells | 52 | 2554 | One qualified | Medium |
Mitigation
- Dual source
- qualification 11 months
- Buffer stock
- 9 weeks
- Design change
- substitution study
- Owner
- Procurement lead
Chips sit inside the control systems of every domain.
- EnergyCouplingInverters, protection relays and meters depend on semiconductors.What to watchLead times for grid equipment
- HealthCouplingMedical devices need specialised chips.What to watchDevice shortages linked to chips
- WaterCouplingControl systems and sensors in utilities rely on components.What to watchSpare part availability
Component supply studies are designed for the Strategic Systems series. The European Chips Act (2023) is one of several national and regional responses to concentration in fabrication; the page names no firm.
How semiconductors and components is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in semiconductors and components: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of fabrication capacity by region | percent of wafer capacity | annual | Industry analyses | ESTIMATED |
| Chip trade by product code | value of trade in integrated circuits | annual | Trade statistics | Published statistics |
| Supplier concentration in key inputs | number of suppliers with significant share | per assessment | Value chain studies | ESTIMATED |
| Lead time for chip orders | weeks | monthly | Industry surveys | REPORTED |
| Export control measures on semiconductors | count of measures | per change | Government notices | Published statistics |
| Fabs exposed to natural hazards | count by hazard zone | per assessment | Site and hazard overlay | ESTIMATED |
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| UN Comtrade (HS headings 8541 and 8542) | Trade in semiconductor devices and integrated circuits | Free access with limits, UN terms |
| OECD studies of the semiconductor value chain | Structure, concentration and policy analysis | Public, OECD terms |
| WSTS public summaries | Industry sales by region and product category | Public summaries; full data members only |
| Government export control notices | Rules restricting trade in chips and equipment | Public records, licence per government |
| Academic and think-tank value chain mappings | Supplier shares at each step | Licence per publication (to check) |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of industry and technology | Which value chain steps to support domestically or with partners | Value chain maps; concentration evidence |
| Critical sector operators | Which components to stockpile or qualify from second sources | Downstream dependency analyses |
| Trade and security authorities | How export controls affect domestic supply | Export control evidence; trade data |
Outputs this topic produces
- Value chain maps showing concentration at each step
- Hazard exposure overlays for fabrication sites
- Downstream dependency analyses for critical sectors
- Evidence notes on export control changes
What experts ask about semiconductor supply.
- At which stages of the chain is capability concentrated in few firms or locations?
- Which specialised inputs, such as high-purity gases, chemicals and wafers, are single-sourced?
- How long would it take to replace lost fabrication capacity?
- Which downstream sectors are most exposed to shortages of mature or advanced chips?
- How do export controls and industrial policies change the structure of the chain?
Why the chain is fragile.
Semiconductor manufacturing requires extreme precision, very large capital investment and accumulated know-how. Leading-edge fabrication plants take years to build and need specialised equipment from a handful of suppliers. These barriers favour concentration: each stage tends to have few capable players, and the stages are spread across different regions.
Shortages propagate widely because chips are embedded in so many products. Even inexpensive, mature-node chips can halt the production of much more valuable goods when they are missing. Long lead times and the difficulty of switching suppliers, since chips must be qualified for each product, slow recovery.
Other components share similar features: specialised capacitors, displays, sensors and advanced materials often depend on few producers and on inputs such as rare gases or high-purity minerals.
Methods and their limits.
- 01
Supply chain mapping
Tracing firms and locations at each production stage. Commercial confidentiality limits visibility beyond the first tiers.
- 02
Network analysis
Identifying central nodes and single points of failure using network science. Firm-level links are often incomplete.
- 03
Materials and process research
Understanding critical inputs and alternatives using materials science and chemistry.
- 04
Input-output analysis
Estimating sector exposure to component shortages. Tables are aggregated and published with delay.
The industry changes quickly, and analyses state the date and sources of the information used.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Network science and contagionTrade network centrality · Multi-tier dependency mapping · Disruption propagationApplied here
- 02Materials science and chemistryProcessing route analysis · Recycling potential · Substitution optionsApplied here
- 03EconometricsPrice transmission · Effects of trade measures · Disruption impacts on outputApplied here
- 04Geospatial information systemsFacility hazard overlays · Sourcing region deforestation · Corridor mappingApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Why are semiconductor supply chains fragile?
What is a fab?
Do mature chips matter?
Does the platform assess individual chip makers?
Are export controls analysed?
Why do mature chips matter?
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