The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Critical Infrastructure relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
The Critical Infrastructure methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them reliability and resilience engineering, systems engineering, and network science and contagion, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, night lights and land cover with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Western Europe; 3 further NASA layers wait in the list.
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Infrastructure exposure, for this page
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For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, night lights and land cover with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Western Europe; 3 further NASA layers wait in the list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Network data | Operators rarely share full topology | Data coverage stated; synthetic networks labelled |
| Fragility | Asset response to hazards varies by age and design | Fragility ranges |
| Restoration times | Depend on crews, spares and access | Distributions from past events |
| Dependencies | Often undocumented | Elicited and labelled as expert judgement |
Cascade results are reported as scenarios with the dependency assumptions listed.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Reliability and resilience engineering | Reliability and resilience engineering studies how systems fail, how failures can be prevented and how systems absorb, adapt and recover from disruption. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.