GCRI · 仕事とスキルの未来
組織の人材計画
Hospitals, schools, utilities and public administrations must anticipate how many staff with which skills they will need, as demand, technology and demographics change. Shortages in critical services can become crises when shocks hit. This page sets out how workforce planning works, how supply and demand for skills are forecast and monitored, and what evidence serves the institutions and governments that plan their workforce.
Institutional workforce planning on the record.
Institutional workforce planning: how the risk develops.
Public and private sector capacity. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Training takes years
Doctors, nurses, engineers and teachers take years to train, so shortages cannot be fixed quickly and planning must look ahead.
Retirement waves create gaps
Ageing workforces in public services face waves of retirement that drain experience faster than recruits can replace it.
Migration moves skills
Health and other professionals migrate to higher-paying countries, relieving shortages there and creating them in origin countries.
Shortages cascade in crises
In emergencies, understaffed services lose capacity first, and burnout among remaining staff can drive further departures.
スキルと曝露のコンソール。
このテーマを追跡するためにチームが使う画面：その指標、状態、決定。名前は例であり、値はイメージです。
スキルと曝露のコンソール
Institutional workforce planning · Labour market A · Year 2
エクスポージャー別の職業
| 事務支援 | 51,451 | 0.7 | 代替 | データ運用 |
| 機械オペレーター | 28,183 | 0.7 | 混合 | ロボット保守 |
| ケア労働者 | 52,511 | 0.1 | 補完 | スキルアップ |
| アナリスト | 24,349 | 0.3 | 補完 | スキルアップ |
技能別の求人
リスキリングの道筋
- 評価するスキルプロファイル
- 一致目標とする役割
- 訓練する11 週
- 場所雇用主
- フォローアップ6 か月
Institutions in every domain need workforce plans.
Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. Workforce data use ISCO-08; plans are decided by institutions.
- Workforce plans institutions publish.
- Knowledge transfer evaluations.
How institutional workforce planning is modelled, measured and tested.
モデル、その仮定、データ、不確実性を、科学者やエンジニアが確認する形で示します。構造は公表された手法に従っています。描かれた値は例示であり、知見ではありません。
システム・モデル
The couplings between the systems in institutional workforce planning: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
何を、どの程度うまく測定しているか。
各指標には、その単位、更新頻度、背後にある出典の種類、値が持つことになるエビデンスのラベルが付いています。値は表示しません：プログラムが自らの権限のもとで値を提供します。
| 指標 | 単位 | 周期 | 出典の種類 | ラベル |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy rate in critical occupations | percent of posts | 四半期ごと | Employer and sector records | 報告値 |
| Workforce age profile | share aged fifty-five and over | 年次 | Workforce registers | 公表統計 |
| Training places versus projected need | ratio | 年次 | Planning projections | 予報 |
| Staff turnover | percent per year | 年次 | Human resources records | 観測 |
| Foreign-trained professionals | percent of workforce | 年次 | Professional registers | 公表統計 |
| Health worker density | per ten thousand population | 年次 | National Health Workforce Accounts | 公表統計 |
エビデンスの出所。
名前の明示された公開データセットと機関の記録。それぞれにライセンス区分があります。合意に基づく出典は、その条件のもとでのみ使用し、再公開することはありません。
| 出典 | 提供するもの | ライセンス区分 |
|---|---|---|
| WHO National Health Workforce Accounts | Health workforce stock and flows | Open, WHO terms of use |
| WHO Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel reporting | Ethical recruitment and migration data | Public, WHO terms of use |
| Cedefop skills forecasts | Skills supply and demand projections in Europe | Public, EU terms |
| Public service workforce statistics | Size, age and turnover of public workforces | Public records, licence per government |
| UNESCO data on teachers | Teacher numbers and qualifications | Open, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO |
誰が決め、エビデンスが何に役立つか。
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 誰が決定するか | 質問 | このページが提供するエビデンス |
|---|---|---|
| Health, education and public service ministries | How many professionals to train and recruit | Projections; turnover analyses |
| Institutions and employers | How to retain staff and plan succession | Turnover and age evidence |
| Governments in origin and destination countries | How to manage professional migration ethically | Migration evidence |
このトピックが生み出す成果物
- Workforce supply and demand projections with ranges
- Retirement and turnover risk analyses
- Migration flow analyses for critical professions
- Evidence notes for workforce strategies
What workforce planners ask.
- What skills will the organisation or sector need in five and ten years?
- How many people with those skills exist, and how many will retire or leave?
- Where are shortages most likely to disrupt critical services?
- How can capacity be built, through training, recruitment, redesign or technology?
Why shortages persist.
Training skilled workers takes years, so supply responds slowly to demand. Ageing workforces in sectors such as health, utilities and public administration create waves of retirement. Public sector pay structures may not compete for scarce skills such as digital, engineering and data roles. Critical national missions, such as an energy transition or a disaster recovery programme, can require skills faster than システム can produce them.
Planning often fails because it extrapolates past trends, works in sector silos and is not linked to education provision or funding decisions.
Tools for planning capacity.
- 01
Supply and demand modelling
Projecting workforce stock and needs under scenarios, using 経済学と開発経済学. Projections are sensitive to assumptions about technology and policy.
- 02
Competency mapping
Defining the competencies roles require and assessing the current workforce against them.
- 03
Scenario planning
Testing workforce plans against different futures, using 計量経済学 and expert judgement. Scenarios are not forecasts.
- 04
Capacity audits
Reviewing critical roles, single points of failure and succession.
どのように研究され、手法が言えないことは何か。
Where this page’s references lead.
このページの読解の基準となる機関と文書。状態と版は変わります。各リンクは発行機関へ移動します。
質問と回答。
What is workforce planning?
Why do health worker shortages persist?
What is the WHO Global Code on recruitment?
Why do workforce plans often miss?
Can technology fill skill shortages?
Does the platform produce workforce plans for organisations?
How does an ageing workforce affect planning?
What is a single point of failure in a workforce?
このページからエビデンスを提供する。
報告書 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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