GCRI · 工作与技能的未来
机构人力规划
Hospitals, schools, utilities and public administrations must anticipate how many staff with which skills they will need, as demand, technology and demographics change. Shortages in critical services can become crises when shocks hit. This page sets out how workforce planning works, how supply and demand for skills are forecast and monitored, and what evidence serves the institutions and governments that plan their workforce.
Institutional workforce planning: how the risk develops.
Public and private sector capacity. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Training takes years
Doctors, nurses, engineers and teachers take years to train, so shortages cannot be fixed quickly and planning must look ahead.
Retirement waves create gaps
Ageing workforces in public services face waves of retirement that drain experience faster than recruits can replace it.
Migration moves skills
Health and other professionals migrate to higher-paying countries, relieving shortages there and creating them in origin countries.
Shortages cascade in crises
In emergencies, understaffed services lose capacity first, and burnout among remaining staff can drive further departures.
技能与暴露控制台。
团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
技能与暴露控制台
Institutional workforce planning · Labour market A · Year 2
按暴露程度划分的职业
| 文书支持 | 51,451 | 0.7 | 替代 | 数据运营 |
| 机器操作人员 | 28,183 | 0.7 | 混合 | 机器人维护 |
| 护理工作者 | 52,511 | 0.1 | 补充 | 技能提升 |
| 分析人员 | 24,349 | 0.3 | 补充 | 技能提升 |
按技能划分的职位空缺
再培训路径
- 评估技能概况
- 匹配目标岗位
- 培训11 周
- 地点雇主
- 跟进6 个月
Institutions in every domain need workforce plans.
Findings are designed for the 国家系统风险与韧性系列. Workforce data use ISCO-08; plans are decided by institutions.
- Workforce plans institutions publish.
- Knowledge transfer evaluations.
How institutional workforce planning is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in institutional workforce planning: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy rate in critical occupations | percent of posts | 每季度 | Employer and sector records | 已报告 |
| Workforce age profile | share aged fifty-five and over | 年度 | Workforce registers | 已发布统计 |
| Training places versus projected need | ratio | 年度 | Planning projections | 预测 |
| Staff turnover | percent per year | 年度 | Human resources records | 观测 |
| Foreign-trained professionals | percent of workforce | 年度 | Professional registers | 已发布统计 |
| Health worker density | per ten thousand population | 年度 | National Health Workforce Accounts | 已发布统计 |
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| WHO National Health Workforce Accounts | Health workforce stock and flows | Open, WHO terms of use |
| WHO Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel reporting | Ethical recruitment and migration data | Public, WHO terms of use |
| Cedefop skills forecasts | Skills supply and demand projections in Europe | Public, EU terms |
| Public service workforce statistics | Size, age and turnover of public workforces | Public records, licence per government |
| UNESCO data on teachers | Teacher numbers and qualifications | Open, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO |
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Health, education and public service ministries | How many professionals to train and recruit | Projections; turnover analyses |
| Institutions and employers | How to retain staff and plan succession | Turnover and age evidence |
| Governments in origin and destination countries | How to manage professional migration ethically | Migration evidence |
该主题产生的产出
- Workforce supply and demand projections with ranges
- Retirement and turnover risk analyses
- Migration flow analyses for critical professions
- Evidence notes for workforce strategies
What workforce planners ask.
- What skills will the organisation or sector need in five and ten years?
- How many people with those skills exist, and how many will retire or leave?
- Where are shortages most likely to disrupt critical services?
- How can capacity be built, through training, recruitment, redesign or technology?
Why shortages persist.
Training skilled workers takes years, so supply responds slowly to demand. Ageing workforces in sectors such as health, utilities and public administration create waves of retirement. Public sector pay structures may not compete for scarce skills such as digital, engineering and data roles. Critical national missions, such as an energy transition or a disaster recovery programme, can require skills faster than 系统 can produce them.
Planning often fails because it extrapolates past trends, works in sector silos and is not linked to education provision or funding decisions.
Tools for planning capacity.
- 01
Supply and demand modelling
Projecting workforce stock and needs under scenarios, using 经济学与发展经济学. Projections are sensitive to assumptions about technology and policy.
- 02
Competency mapping
Defining the competencies roles require and assessing the current workforce against them.
- 03
Scenario planning
Testing workforce plans against different futures, using 计量经济学 and expert judgement. Scenarios are not forecasts.
- 04
Capacity audits
Reviewing critical roles, single points of failure and succession.
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
What is workforce planning?
Why do health worker shortages persist?
What is the WHO Global Code on recruitment?
Why do workforce plans often miss?
Can technology fill skill shortages?
Does the platform produce workforce plans for organisations?
How does an ageing workforce affect planning?
What is a single point of failure in a workforce?
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