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GCRI · 工作与技能的未来

劳动计量经济学

Econometrics estimates relationships in labour data: how technology, training and policies affect employment and wages. In this field it evaluates programmes, measures displacement effects and projects workforce needs, with uncertainty stated.

提出咨询 Back to STEM foundation of Future of Work and Skills
01登记

Labour econometrics on the record.

方法记录STEM 方法
  1. 方法计量经济学
  2. 管理者经济发展
  3. 应用于工作与技能的未来
  4. 数据3 inputs
  6. 规范页面STEM 公共资源
02申请

What econometrics does here.

Econometrics applies statistical methods to economic data to estimate relationships, test theories and forecast. It provides empirical evidence on how shocks and policies affect economic outcomes. In work and skills, society and human development and artificial intelligence, econometric evidence estimates how disasters, pandemics and financial shocks affect output, employment and prices. It informs the economic case for 风险. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Displacement effects with linked data

Linked employer-employee data follow workers after layoffs to estimate earnings losses and re-employment, compared with similar workers not displaced.

Training programme evaluation

Training and employment programmes are evaluated with comparison groups to estimate effects on employment and earnings.

Workforce projections

Supply and demand models project future skill needs by occupation under scenarios, with ranges rather than single numbers.

03方法与证据

How labour econometrics is modelled, measured and tested.

模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。

系统模型

The couplings between the systems in labour econometrics: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−++工作社会人工智能社区经济R 增强B 平衡
Causal loop diagram from the page’s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
04数据

该方法使用的输入。

Datasets and records used by econometrics on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.

数据角色标签
Linked employer-employee dataWorker histories已发布统计
计划记录参与已发布统计
Labour force surveysProjections已发布统计
05流程

流程如何运行。

Process explorer · Process

Labour econometrics: PRISMA 2020 review reporting

10 steps4 个阶段

流程

Labour econometrics: PRISMA 2020 review reporting

PRISMA 2020 是系统综述的报告指南；各步骤依循其核查清单，而非强制顺序，且没有任何 Nexus 文件采纳它。

  1. 01 Plan

    1. 01注册与协议记录 · 审查团队该指南要求说明注册信息、方案的获取方式以及任何修订。
    2. 02资格标准记录 · 审查团队该指南要求说明纳入与排除标准以及研究的分组方式。

  2. 02 查找与遴选

    1. 03检索：来源与策略步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明信息来源与完整的检索策略。它并不规定使用哪些来源。
    2. 04研究的遴选步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明如何判定研究符合纳入条件，包括有多少名审查人进行筛选。它并不规定审查人数量。
    3. 05流程图记录流程图显示检索到的记录数量、纳入的研究数量以及排除的理由。

  3. 03 分析

    1. 06数据收集步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明如何从报告中收集数据以及寻求了哪些数据项。
    2. 07偏倚风险步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明评估偏倚风险所使用的方法与工具。
    3. 08综合模型 · 审查团队该指南要求说明效应量指标与综合方法。它并不规定必须进行荟萃分析。
    4. 09证据的确定性步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明评估确定性所用的方法，并按结局报告结果。它并未指定分级量表。

  4. 04 报告

    1. 10审查报告记录该指南帮助作者报告开展综述的原因、所做的工作以及所得的发现。

报告Outline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.

06验证

结果如何核查。

Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.

核查如何开展
Comparison group validityComparison workers are matched on pre-displacement histories
Projection back-testingPast projections are compared with outcomes
稳健性Results are tested across specifications

Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.

07关联

依赖该方法的主题。

08管理责任

由谁维护该方法。

经济发展 stewards econometrics for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Econometrics

09已关联

本页在整个联合体中通向何处。

10问题

问题与解答。

What are the limits of econometrics in this field?
Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.
结果如何核查？
Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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