GCRI · Systems Science and Modelling
Released maps
Maps of Systems Science and Modelling are published here once their data rights are cleared and they have been reviewed. Each shows its time and space reference, its sources and its uncertainty.
01Workspace
The workspace for released maps.
GCRI · Systems Science and Modelling · Map workspaceIllustrative
Map workspace
Validation suite · Layers 5 · Scale 1:247,000 · Example interface, not a record
Draft viewGCRI · Systems Science and Modelling
Released maps
schematic · example geography
Layers
| Models in library | Published statistics | On |
| Models with validation | DERIVED | On |
| Coupled runs completed | OBSERVED | On |
| Reuse across platforms | DERIVED | Off |
| Administrative | Published statistics | Off |
Feature inspector
- Feature
- Coupled model A · cell H-4336
- Value
- 0.4 index, illustrative
- Source passport
- SP-9568 · licence open
- Uncertainty
- range shown, not a point
Systems Science and Modelling · Map workspace. Map workspace: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
02What is shown
Released, referenced and rights-cleared.
- Time and space reference for every view.
- Sources and licence.
- Uncertainty and known limits.
- Version and date of release.
03Geography
Hazards and exposure worldwide.
Flood water, population density and active fires across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
04Indicators
What a released map in this field would carry.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Evidence label | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models participating in an intercomparison | count | per round | Reported | Model intercomparison |
| Ensemble spread | range or standard deviation across models | per experiment | Modelled | Model intercomparison |
| Agreement on sign of change | percent of models | per experiment | Modelled | Model intercomparison |
| Skill against observations | error metric by model | per evaluation | Estimated | Model intercomparison |
| Shared code lineage between models | count of related model families | per assessment | Estimated | Model intercomparison |
| Outputs published in standard formats | percent of outputs | per round | Observed | Model intercomparison |
| Verification tests passed | percent of test suite | per release | Observed | Uncertainty and validation |
| Validation error against independent data | error metric | per validation | Estimated | Uncertainty and validation |
| Prediction interval coverage | percent of observations inside stated intervals | per evaluation | Observed | Uncertainty and validation |
| Sensitivity indices | share of output variance by input | per analysis | Modelled | Uncertainty and validation |
| Models with documented credibility assessment | count | per assessment | Declared | Uncertainty and validation |
| Independent reviews completed | count | per model | Reported | Uncertainty and validation |
| Components coupled | count of models in a coupled system | per configuration | Declared | Coupled systems modelling |
| Coupling frequency | exchanges per simulated period | per configuration | Declared | Coupled systems modelling |
| Conservation error at interfaces | imbalance of mass or energy | per run | Modelled | Coupled systems modelling |
| Coupled uncertainty range | range of outputs | per experiment | Modelled | Coupled systems modelling |
| Feedbacks represented | count by type | per configuration | Declared | Coupled systems modelling |
| Validation of coupled outputs | error against observations | per evaluation | Estimated | Coupled systems modelling |
| Network size | nodes and links | per dataset | Observed | Networks and cascades |
| Degree distribution | distribution shape | per dataset | Estimated | Networks and cascades |
| Centrality of key nodes | centrality score | per analysis | Estimated | Networks and cascades |
| Cascade size in simulation | share of nodes failed | per scenario | Modelled | Networks and cascades |
| Data completeness | estimated share of links observed | per dataset | Estimated | Networks and cascades |
| Interlayer dependencies | count | per dataset | Declared | Networks and cascades |
| Models documented with the ODD protocol | percent of published models | per review | Observed | Agent based and complexity |
| Patterns reproduced in validation | count of target patterns | per model | Estimated | Agent based and complexity |
| Parameters calibrated to data | percent of parameters | per model | Declared | Agent based and complexity |
| Code published | percent of published models | per review | Observed | Agent based and complexity |
| Sensitivity analysis performed | percent of published models | per review | Observed | Agent based and complexity |
| Runs per experiment | count of stochastic replicates | per experiment | Declared | Agent based and complexity |
| Scenarios evaluated | count | per analysis | Declared | Optimisation under uncertainty |
| Regret of chosen plan | difference from best plan in each scenario | per analysis | Modelled | Optimisation under uncertainty |
| Value of the stochastic solution | difference between stochastic and deterministic plans | per analysis | Modelled | Optimisation under uncertainty |
| Satisficing share | percent of scenarios meeting objectives | per analysis | Modelled | Optimisation under uncertainty |
| Adaptation triggers defined | count | per plan | Declared | Optimisation under uncertainty |
| Out-of-sample performance | objective value on held-out scenarios | per analysis | Modelled | Optimisation under uncertainty |
| Data latency from system to twin | minutes | continuous | Observed | Digital twins method |
| State estimation error | error metric | per evaluation | Estimated | Digital twins method |
| Decisions informed by the twin | count | per period | Reported | Digital twins method |
| Sensor coverage of the system | percent of key variables measured | per assessment | Declared | Digital twins method |
| Model components validated | percent | per assessment | Reported | Digital twins method |
| Security assessments completed | count | per assessment | Reported | Digital twins method |
| Models with archived code | percent of published models | per review | Observed | Reproducible modelling |
| Successful independent reruns | percent of attempted reruns | per audit | Observed | Reproducible modelling |
| Models with recorded environments | percent | per review | Observed | Reproducible modelling |
| Software with persistent identifiers | count | annual | Observed | Reproducible modelling |
| Corrections issued | count with reason | continuous | Observed | Reproducible modelling |
| Models meeting FAIR4RS criteria | percent | per assessment | Estimated | Reproducible modelling |
05Process
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Released maps: Layers to published map
7 steps·4 stages·1 gate
Process
Released maps: Layers to published map
Layers enter with their rights, are aligned, analysed and checked for uncertainty, then released after public-safe review; a map is a governed spatial claim.
01 Data
- 01Source layers with their rightsDataset · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)Spatial views of The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) products sit under the boundary licence gate. Rights classification sets how a layer may be used.
02 Harmonise
- 02Coordinate reference and boundary versionRecord · NXS-EOP (earth observation and digital twins)The area of interest preserves its coordinate reference system, polygon validity and observation support. Boundary versions are kept.
- 03Harmonise units, variables and timeStepUnit metadata, conversion records and transformation logs are required. Alignment is an evidence event, not hidden preprocessing.
03 Analyse and check
- 04Analyse with a recorded processing recipeModel · GIS teamA processing recipe records parameters, calibration, inputs and output lineage. The analysis methods are named in each product’s own record.
- 05Spatial uncertainty checkGateSpatial uncertainty is recorded and affects downstream use. A high-uncertainty polygon may suit internal review, not public-safe release.
04 Publish
- 06Spatial metadata bundleRecordThe bundle records boundary type, jurisdiction, geometry version, projection, resolution, source, time window, uncertainty and access class.
- 07Public-safe release of the mapDecisionThe output record names the redactions, uncertainty and public-safe reviewer. A map is a governed spatial claim, never merely a picture.
Spatio-temporal intelligence · Data protocols: semantic, jurisdictional and temporal intelligence · NXS-EOPDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The pages cited are design doctrine.
06Reading the maps
Cautions that apply to systems modelling maps.
- Model domain maps show coverage, not accuracy.
- Hotspot maps depend on model choice.
- Resolution limits interpretation.
07Status
Releases appear as they are reviewed.
Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
08Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
09Questions
Questions and answers.
Can I request a map or model?
Write to the contact form with what you need and why.
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Contribute evidence from this page.
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Systems Science and Modelling
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