GCRI · Perdagangan dan Sumber Daya Strategis
Geoekonomi dan fragmentasi
Trade is increasingly shaped by security concerns: export controls, sanksi, investment screening, subsidies and tariffs that steer supply chains toward allies or home. These measures can reduce some dependencies while creating others, raising costs and splitting markets. This page sets out how fragmentasi geoekonomi works, how it is measured, and what evidence serves the governments and firms that must navigate it.
Geoeconomics and fragmentation in seven parts.
- 01PertanyaannyaGeoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops
- 02Di seluruh domainFragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains
- 03IndikatorApa yang diukur, dan seberapa baik
- 04SumberDari mana bukti berasal
- 05KeputusanSiapa yang memutuskan, dan apa yang dilayani bukti
- 06Pertanyaan intiWhat experts ask about fragmentation
- 07Mekanisme dan pendorongHow restrictions transmit
Geoeconomics and fragmentation: how the risk develops.
Restrictions, market transmission and substitution. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Measures restrict and redirect
Kontrol ekspor, sanksi and tariffs block or tax trade with particular partners. Trade often reroutes through third countries rather than stopping.
Subsidies relocate production
Industrial policies subsidise domestic or allied production of chips, batteries and clean technology. Others respond, and trade patterns shift over years.
Blocs form along alignment
Trade and investment grow faster between politically aligned countries. Fragmentation reduces efficiency gains from specialisation and can raise prices.
Retaliation compounds
Each measure invites a response. Escalating restrictions widen the set of goods affected and raise uncertainty for investment.
Monitor koridor dan titik sempit.
Layar yang akan digunakan sebuah tim untuk mengikuti subjek ini: ukuran, status, dan keputusannya. Nama adalah contoh dan nilai bersifat ilustratif.
Monitor koridor dan titik sempit
Geoeconomics and fragmentation · Corridor A · Week 28
- Waktu transit22hari9Peringatan
- Indeks angkutan barang21431Pantau
- Kapal dialihkan rutenya57minggu iniPantau
- Cakupan inventaris37hariNormal
Koridor
merah: terganggu
Waktu pulih dibandingkan waktu bertahan
menurut masukan kritis
| Pupuk | Selat | 7 | 3 | Pendek |
| Bahan bakar | Selat | 5 | 4 | Tercakup |
| Semikonduktor | Pusat pelabuhan | 24 | 11 | Pendek |
| Biji-bijian | Koridor A | 2 | 8 | Tercakup |
Fragmentation changes costs and resilience across domains.
- EnergiKeterkaitanSanctions and restrictions reroute energy flows.What to watchSupplier diversification
- PanganKeterkaitanRestrictions on fertiliser and grain spread to importers.What to watchRestrictions by product
- KesehatanKeterkaitanMedicines and ingredients cross many borders.What to watchIngredient source concentration
Fragmentation scenarios are designed for the Seri Prospek Kajian Masa Depan, labelled as scenarios. The IMF’s 2023 Staff Discussion Note and the WTO World Trade Report 2023 set out estimated costs and their wide ranges; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) takes no position on any dispute.
- Cases where a restriction reached a supply chain.
- Critiques of fragmentation scenarios.
How geoeconomics and fragmentation is modelled, measured and tested.
Model, asumsi, data, dan ketidakpastiannya, dalam bentuk yang akan diperiksa ilmuwan atau insinyur. Strukturnya mengikuti metode yang dipublikasikan. Nilai yang digambar bersifat ilustratif, bukan temuan.
Model sistem
The couplings between the systems in geoeconomics and fragmentation: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Apa yang diukur, dan seberapa baik.
Setiap indikator membawa satuan, frekuensi, jenis sumber di baliknya, dan label bukti yang akan dibawa suatu nilai. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan: sebuah program menyediakannya berdasarkan wewenangnya sendiri.
| Indikator | Unit | Kadensi | Jenis sumber | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade policy interventions | count of measures by type | setiap bulan | Trade policy monitoring databases | DILAPORKAN |
| Trade between geopolitical blocs | share of total trade | setiap kuartal | Bilateral trade data with bloc classification | ESTIMASI |
| Goods covered by export controls | count of product codes | per perubahan | Government control lists | Statistik terbitan |
| Foreign direct investment screening decisions | count of reviews and blocks | tahunan | Investment screening reports | Statistik terbitan |
| Average applied tariff | percent | tahunan | Tariff databases | Statistik terbitan |
| Trade policy uncertainty | index value from text analysis | setiap bulan | Published uncertainty measures | ESTIMASI |
Asal bukti.
Set data publik bernama dan catatan kelembagaan, masing-masing dengan kelas lisensinya. Sumber berdasarkan perjanjian hanya digunakan sesuai ketentuannya dan tidak pernah diterbitkan ulang.
| Sumber | Apa yang diberikannya | Kelas lisensi |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade Alert | Trade policy interventions by country and type | Public, terms to check |
| WTO trade monitoring reports and Integrated Database | Trade measures and applied tariffs | Public, WTO terms |
| OECD investment screening reports | Investment screening mechanisms and activity | Public, OECD terms |
| Authority export control and sanksi lists | Restricted items, entities and countries | Public records, licence per government |
| IMF and WTO analysis of fragmentasi geoekonomi | Estimates of fragmentation costs and trade shifts | Public, terms per publisher |
Siapa yang memutuskan, dan apa yang dilayani bukti.
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Siapa yang memutuskan | Pertanyaannya | Bukti yang dilayani halaman ini |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of trade and foreign affairs | How to respond to and design trade measures | Measure trackers; fragmentation scenarios |
| Firms with global supply chains | How to adjust sourcing and investment to policy risk | Rerouting analyses; control lists |
| Multilateral institutions | How to monitor and reduce fragmentation costs | Trade monitoring evidence |
Keluaran yang dihasilkan topik ini
- Trade measure trackers for products and partners of interest
- Rerouting analyses of trade through third countries
- Scenarios of fragmentation effects on supply
- Evidence notes for trade policy dialogues
What experts ask about fragmentation.
- How do restrictions change trade flows, and how much trade is rerouted through third countries?
- Which products and sectors are most affected, and how quickly can supply be substituted?
- What are the costs of fragmentation, and who bears them?
- How do retaliatory measures and policy uncertainty affect investment and supply decisions?
- How does fragmentation interact with energy transitions and technology development?
How restrictions transmit.
Trade measures change relative prices and access. Importers seek alternative suppliers; exporters seek new markets; and some trade is rerouted through intermediary countries. In the short run, substitution is limited by capacity, qualification requirements and contracts, so restrictions raise prices and cause shortages. In the long run, supply chains reorganise, sometimes at higher cost.
Uncertainty is itself a channel. When firms expect policy to change, they may delay investment, build buffers or duplicate supply chains. These responses can increase resilience but also reduce efficiency and raise prices.
Measures can spread. Restrictions by one country can prompt responses by others, and broad categories of goods, such as technology or critical minerals, may become subject to overlapping controls.
Metode dan batasannya.
- 01
Gravity and trade models
Econometric models of bilateral trade used to estimate effects of measures, using ekonometrika. Results depend on specification.
- 02
Analisis masukan-keluaran
Tracing how restrictions on one sector affect others. Aggregation hides firm-level substitution.
- 03
Policy databases
Records of trade measures by product and country. Classification and coverage differ between sources.
- 04
Network scenarios
Simulating the removal of trade links using ilmu jaringan. Behavioural responses are simplified.
Estimates of fragmentation costs vary widely with assumptions about substitution and adjustment time, and are presented with their ranges.
Cara hal ini dikaji, dan apa yang tidak dapat dinyatakan metodenya.
- 01EkonometrikaTransmisi harga · Dampak langkah perdagangan · Dampak gangguan terhadap outputDiterapkan di sini
- 02Ilmu jaringan dan penularanSentralitas jaringan perdagangan · Pemetaan ketergantungan multitingkat · Perambatan gangguanDiterapkan di sini
- 03Sistem informasi geospasialLapisan bahaya fasilitas · Deforestasi di wilayah sumber pasokan · Pemetaan koridorDiterapkan di sini
- 04Optimisasi dan riset operasiPerutean ulang saat titik sempit ditutup · Penentuan ukuran stok strategis · Desain portofolio sumber pasokanDiterapkan di sini
Where this page’s references lead.
Badan dan dokumen yang menjadi acuan halaman ini. Status dan edisi berubah; setiap tautan menuju badan penerbitnya.
Tanya jawab.
What is geoeconomic fragmentation?
What is friend-shoring?
Do sanctions stop trade?
Does the platform take positions on sanctions or tariffs?
Does it give compliance guidance?
Is fragmentation always harmful?
Kontribusikan bukti dari halaman ini.
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Bawa metode, dataset, atau pertanyaan.
Informasi dan pertanyaan sudah terbuka hari ini. Sebuah pertanyaan menerima nomor referensi dan menyebutkan langkah berikutnya; lamaran, pembayaran, alokasi komputasi, dan pendaftaran hanya dibuka ketika tim, ketentuan, dan kapasitas tinjauannya tersedia.
Dokumen hukum.
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