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GCRI · بەڕێوەبردنی مەترسیی سیستەمی

Decision analysis for risk management

Decision analysis structures choices under uncertainty: it makes the options, objectives, uncertainties and trade-offs explicit so that a decision can be examined and defended. In مەترسیی سیستەمیی management it supports appetite setting, the choice of treatments and the selection of investments in resilience where consequences are uncertain and values conflict.

پرسیارێک بنێرە Back to STEM foundation of Systemic Risk Management
01تۆمارکردن

Decision analysis for risk management on the record.

Method recordSTEM method
  1. ڕێگاشیکاری بڕیار لە ژێر نادڵنیاییدا
  2. پارێزەرمەترسیی سیستەمی Management
  3. Applied inبەڕێوەبردنی مەترسیی سیستەمی
  4. داتا4 inputs
  6. Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application

What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.

Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In risk management and مەترسیی سیستەمیی and methods and modelling, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Multi-criteria treatment choice

Options for treating a risk are scored against objectives such as safety, cost, service continuity and equity, with weights elicited from decision makers and the sensitivity of the ranking to those weights reported.

Decision trees for contingent plans

Sequential choices, such as whether to invest now or wait for information, are laid out with their probabilities and consequences, and the value of further information is estimated before commissioning it.

Robust choices across scenarios

Strategies are tested across many plausible futures to find those that perform acceptably in most of them, and the conditions under which each strategy fails are identified.

03چاودێری

Uncertainty analysis.

The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Uncertainty analysis

Systemic risk · Decision analysis for risk · Run R-0911

Sensitivity rankedGCRI · بەڕێوەبردنی مەترسیی سیستەمی

Total-order sensitivity

Output distribution

تێکردنەکان

Risks above appetiteئاساییrisks, statedدەرهێنانی ڕای شارەزا
Key risk indicators in breachئاساییKRIs, statedدەرهێنانی ڕای شارەزا
Controls tested effectiveLognormal of controls, statedدەرهێنانی ڕای شارەزا
Interdependency links mappedئاساییlinks, statedدەرهێنانی ڕای شارەزا
Uncertainty analysis: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Systemic risk.ناو و بەهای نموونەیی؛ دیزاینێکە، نەک تۆمار یان سیستەمی ڕاستەوخۆ.
04داتا

What the method consumes.

Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.

داتاڕۆڵناونیشان
Elicited objectives and weights from decision makersValue model inputsDECLARED
تۆماری مەترسی assessmentsLikelihood and consequence inputsمەزەندەکراو
Scenario librariesFutures for robustness testingمۆدێلکراو
Cost and performance records of past treatmentsOption evaluationچاودێریکراو
05ڕێگا و بەڵگە

How decision analysis for risk management is modelled, measured and tested.

مۆدێلەکە، گریمانەکانی، داتاکانی و نادڵنیاییەکەی، بەو شێوەیەی زانا یان ئەندازیارێک دەیپشکنێت. پێکهاتەکان ڕێگا بڵاوکراوەکان دەگرنەبەر. بەهاکانی کێشراو نموونەییە، نەک دۆزینەوە.

مۆدێل، هاوکێشەکان و گریمانەکان

The model structure used for decision analysis for risk management, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.

مەترسیی توخمی iRi = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)مەترسیدەر، ڕووبەڕووبوون، لاوازی و توانای مامەڵەکردن
زیانی ساڵانەی چاوەڕوانکراوEAL = ∑k pk · Lkبەسەر ڕووداوەکانی k بە ئەگەری ساڵانەی pk
سیستەمە هاوبەستەکانxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error
گریمانەبۆچی دروست دەکرێتچۆن تاقی دەکرێتەوە
مەترسیدەر و ڕووبەڕووبوون لە ناو پێشهاتێکدا سەربەخۆنئینتێگراڵی زیان بە ئاسانی دەهێڵێتەوەبەراورد بکە لەگەڵ گونجاندنی کۆپیولا لەسەر تۆمارە هاوبەشەکان
هاوبەستییەکان لە نزیک خاڵی کارکردن هێڵینڕێگە دەدات شۆکەکان بڵاو ببنەوە لە Aلە دەرەوەی مەودای هێڵیی شڵەژێنە و بەراورد بکە
چەمکەکانی لاوازی لە شوێنێکەوە بۆ شوێنێکی تر دەگوازرێنەوەچەمکی ناوخۆیی بە دەگمەن بەردەستەلەگەڵ زیانە چاودێریکراوەکان پشتڕاستی بکەرەوە کە هەن
تێکردنەکان
کۆمەڵە داتای وەشانکراو لەگەڵ ڕەسەنایەتی
دەرچووەکان
دابەشبوون، نەک یەک ژمارە
کۆد
بڵاوکراوەتەوە لەگەڵ کارتی مۆدێل و تاقیکردنەوەکان
بەرهەمهێنانەوە
هەمان داتا، کۆد، ژینگە و تۆو
فۆرمۆلەکردنی مەترسی و دۆخ-بۆشایی ستاندارد؛ ئەو گریمانانەی لیست کراون ئاسایین بۆ ڕێگاکە، بۆ پێداچوونەوە ڕاگەیەندراون، نەک ئەنجام.
پرەنسیپە ڕێنماییەکانی FAIR · GO FAIR و FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web Consortiumڕێنمایی بۆ مامەڵەی یەکسان لەگەڵ نادڵنیاییەکان · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06پشتڕاستکردنەوە

How results are checked.

Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.

بپشکنەHow it is done
Sensitivity to weightsRankings are recomputed across plausible weight ranges and changes in the preferred option are reported
Value of informationThe expected value of reducing an uncertainty is estimated before commissioning further study
Requisite model reviewDecision makers confirm that the model captures the objectives and options they consider relevant

Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.

07پرۆسە

چۆن پرۆسەکە کار دەکات.

Process explorer · Process

Decision analysis for risk management: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 قۆناغ

پرۆسە

Decision analysis for risk management: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مەترسیدەرDataset · Board risk committeeThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02ڕووبەڕووبوونDataset · Board risk committeeThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03هەستیاریDataset · Board risk committeeThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Board risk committeeThe ability of سیستەمە, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.

  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Board risk committeeRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06لاوازیComponent · Board risk committeeThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07مەترسیModel · مەترسیی سیستەمی ManagementRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.

  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Board risk committeeRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09مەترسیی ماوەRecord · Board risk committeeThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.

  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Board risk committeeThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

08Connections

Topics that rely on this method.

09Stewardship

Who maintains the method.

مەترسیی سیستەمی Management stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Decision analysis under uncertainty

10پرسیارەکان

پرسیار و وەڵام.

What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
ئەو canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
Reportsبەشداربە

لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIبەڕێوەبردنی مەترسیی سیستەمیسیناریۆ و تاقیکردنەوەی گوشارڕێگا و تەکنیکیپۆرتفۆلیۆ و ئامادەیی

هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.

بەڕێوەبردنی مەترسیی سیستەمی

ڕێگایەک، کۆمەڵە داتایەک یان پرسیارێک بهێنە.

زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.

ڕێگایەک پێشنیار بکە بینینی هەموو ڕێگاکانی پەیوەندی
یاسایی

نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.