Evidence
The evidence step decides what a question will be answered with: which methods, which data, and how each assertion is labelled so a reader can tell an observation from a model run or an expert judgement.
- Institution
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
- 01QuestionNational, regional or institutional priority
- 02EvidenceSTEM foundation of the platform
- 03BuildNexus Foundry
- 04OrganizeNexus Ecosystem
- 05TestNexus Universe (independent site)
- 06PublishNexus Reports
- 07DecideCompetent authorities and institutions, through Nexus Rails
- 08RenewCorrections and the next annual agenda
The short answer.
Evidence is step two of the eight-step Nexus cycle: the step at which methods from the STEM Commons and labelled data are brought to the question. It is owned by the STEM foundation of each platform. At this step GCRI supplies the methods, data and evidence labels, and the decision at the end of the cycle stays with the competent authority.
Systemic exposure in Asia.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for Asia as an example geography for this subject.
Each pillar's contribution.
Every assertion carries the kind of evidence behind it.
A finding that mixes gauged river flow, a reanalysis product and a scenario projection is three different kinds of claim. The evidence step tags each assertion as observed, officially reported, modelled, estimated or expert judgement, and records the source, date and licence beside it.
| Label | What it means | Typical check |
|---|---|---|
| Observed | Measured by an instrument or survey with a known protocol | Instrument metadata, gaps, homogenisation |
| Officially reported | Published by a competent authority under its own rules | Edition, revision history, definitions |
| Modelled | Produced by a model run with stated inputs and assumptions | Validation period, skill score, ensemble spread |
| Expert judgement | Elicited from named experts with a stated protocol | Elicitation method, calibration, dissent recorded |
How evidence is weighed before it reaches a build.
Uncertainty language follows the IPCC calibrated language for confidence and likelihood where climate evidence is concerned, and certainty of evidence in health questions follows GRADE. Risk assessment technique selection is read against IEC 31010, the companion to ISO 31000.
- Methods come from the STEM Commons, where each method page states its validation and limits.
- Data products enter through Nexus Registry with provenance and licence recorded.
- Gaps are written down as gaps: an unanswered part of the question is not filled with a proxy without saying so.
Then: build.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Evidence label | A tag on an assertion naming the kind of evidence behind it, such as observed, officially reported or modelled. |
| Evidence synthesis | The structured collection, appraisal and combination of evidence from many studies to answer a question. |
| Certainty of evidence | A rating, such as high, moderate, low or very low under GRADE, of confidence that an estimate is close to the true effect. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.