POL — Political Risks

1) Purpose, Scope & Design Principles

Mission. Build capacity to anticipate, reduce, respond to, and govern political risks across geopolitics, conflict, sanctions & trade, civic space, information integrity, human rights, election integrity, supply chains, and tech governance—while integrating Science Policy, Just Transition, Resilience, Anticipatory Action, DRR, and Biodiversity & Ecosystems.

Design principles

• Standards-anchored: UN Charter & IHL basics; UNGPs (business & human rights); OSINT ethics & chain-of-custody; sanctions regimes (UN/EU/US/UK), export controls (EAR/ITAR/EU Dual-Use), AML/CTF expectations, IFC PS & FPIC, ISO 27001/27701, NIST CSF/AI RMF, election standards & observer methods, accessibility (WCAG 2.2 AA), data-protection best practice.
• Evidence & portability: Every artifact is SPDX-licensed, carries W3C-PROV lineage, and is issued as Open Badges 3.0 inside W3C Verifiable Credential envelopes. Public artifacts may receive DOIs.
• Inclusion & safety: RtL/localization; conflict sensitivity (“do-no-harm”); de-identified/synthetic data; ethics review for sensitive contexts.

2) Tiers, Workload & Quality Targets

• NB 2–4 h (0.2–0.4 NCU) → quiz + one artifact
• MB 6–8 h (0.6–0.8 NCU) → mini-project + quiz
• MC 12–20 h (1.2–2.0 NCU) → lab + scenario + proctored QZ/OD
• PC 60–90 h → 4–5 MCs + capstone
• AC 120–150 h → 2 PCs + red-team defense
• DIP 240–300 h → cross-stream capstone + board defense
• Fellow-PNG invitation only → publish in Nexus Journals (open methods/data)

Assessment quality: quiz reliability ≥ 0.75; discrimination ≥ 0.25; multilingual DIF checks.
ECTS advisory: 1 NCU ≈ 0.33–0.40 ECTS.
Renewal: invited on MAJOR revision via delta exam or artifact refresh.

3) Codes, Versioning & Catalog Ops

• Grammar: POL-[NB|MB|MC]-2xx/3xx/4xx/599
• Revision: rev: YY.MM.P with public change log; delta exam on MAJOR
• Permalinks: /academy/courses/<code> (latest) + ?rev= for specific
• Status: active | deprecated | superseded with successor mapping

4) Cross-Cutting Compliance & Interoperability

• Human rights due diligence: UNGPs, conflict sensitivity, consent & minimization, grievance channels.
• Sanctions, export controls & trade: screening, beneficial ownership, evasion typologies, export classification, end-use/end-user checks.
• Civic space & elections: observer standards, accessibility, inclusive participation, safety of journalists/HRDs.
• OSINT/Geo-OSINT: source grading, geolocation & time verification, chain-of-custody; metadata & tamper-evident packaging.
• Information integrity: dis/mis/malinformation typologies; provenance, watermarking, risk communication & rumor control.
• Exponential tech convergence: AI/LLM safety, deepfakes/synthetic media, cyber/ICS, space/GNSS, quantum readiness, biosecurity/bio-info risks.
• Supply chains: country risk, forced labor screening, FPIC for siting, nature/biodiversity dependencies.

5) Nanobadges (NB) — atomic political-risk skills

Each NB includes a 10–12 item quiz and one portfolio artifact (SPDX + PROV).

• POL-NB-201 OSINT Chain-of-Custody 101
  Artifact: source-grading sheet + PROV diagram.
• POL-NB-202 Sanctions Screening Basics 101
  Artifact: watchlist hit triage + escalation memo.
• POL-NB-203 Disinformation Typology 101
  Artifact: typology map + counter-narrative sketch.
• POL-NB-204 Export Controls & Dual-Use 101
  Artifact: ECCN/classification note + end-use checklist.
• POL-NB-205 Political Economy Indicators 101
  Artifact: indicator deck (fiscal, external, regime) + signposts.
• POL-NB-206 Conflict Early Warning Signals 101
  Artifact: indicator shortlist + trigger logic.
• POL-NB-207 Human Rights Due Diligence 101
  Artifact: HRIA screening form + risk register.
• POL-NB-208 Election Integrity Fundamentals 101
  Artifact: polling/observation SOP + accessibility checklist.

Optional NBs

• POL-NB-209 Geo-OSINT Geolocation 101 → artifact: geolocation worksheet.
• POL-NB-210 Atrocity Prevention Indicators 101 → artifact: framework + thresholds.
• POL-NB-211 AI-Mediated Influence Ops 101 → artifact: deepfake risk screen + comms plan.
• POL-NB-212 Supply Chain Geopolitical Exposure 101 → artifact: supplier country risk grid.
• POL-NB-213 Stakeholder Mapping & Power Analysis 101 → artifact: power map + engagement ladder.

6) Microbadges (MB) — applied bridges

• POL-MB-211 Geo-OSINT Mini
  Deliverable: geolocation/time-verification report + source grades.
• POL-MB-212 Sanctions Case Mini
  Deliverable: KYC/KYB case file, escalation memo, control plan.
• POL-MB-213 Disinfo Investigation Mini
  Deliverable: network map (bots/coordination signals) + takedown/mitigation plan.
• POL-MB-214 Export Controls Mini
  Deliverable: product classification, license matrix, red-flag playbook.
• POL-MB-215 Human Rights Impact Assessment Mini
  Deliverable: HRIA memo + remedy & monitoring plan.
• POL-MB-216 Atrocity Prevention Playbook Mini
  Deliverable: risk indicators → preventive options → referral SOP.
• POL-MB-217 Election RiskOps Center Mini
  Deliverable: ERoC runbook (incident taxonomy, hotline workflows, dashboards).
• POL-MB-218 Supply Chain Country Risk Mini
  Deliverable: supplier heatmap + relocation/mitigation memo.

Optional MBs

• POL-MB-219 AI Content Detection & Watermarking Mini → toolchain eval + policy.
• POL-MB-220 Crypto Sanctions & Web3 Forensics Mini → address clustering + red flags.
• POL-MB-221 Space/GNSS Risk Mini → spoof/jam playbook + continuity plan.
• POL-MB-222 Quantum Geopolitics & Standards Mini → crypto-agility roadmap + alliance tracking.

7) Micro-Certificates (MC) — 12–20 h; proctored

Rule: Each MC requires ≥5 CORE 101 NBs, ≥2 POL NBs, ≥1 MB, plus the sector lab below.
Assessment mix: Lab 50% · Scenario brief 20% · Proctored QZ/OD 30%.

POL-MC-211 Geopolitics & Political Economy

Outcomes: country risk narrative; indicator set & signposts; policy scenario brief.
Lab: risk deck for one country (macro, regime, social, climate/nature linkages).

POL-MC-212 OSINT/Geo-OSINT for Risk

Outcomes: source grading; geolocation/time verification; PROV chain; publishable dossier.
Lab: OSINT case file + OD on chain-of-custody.

POL-MC-213 Disinformation & Information Warfare

Outcomes: typology mapping; network analysis; comms & platform engagement; measurement plan.
Lab: disinfo campaign report + counter-strategy kit.

POL-MC-311 Sanctions, Trade & Compliance

Outcomes: screening & escalation; ownership resolution; export classification; evasion typology; reporting pack.
Lab: end-to-end sanctions/export controls case + board one-pager.

POL-MC-312 Conflict Early Warning & Atrocity Prevention

Outcomes: indicator framework; triggers; preventive options & referral SOP; protection safeguards.
Lab: early-warning dashboard + OD with red-team injects.

POL-MC-313 Election Integrity & Civic Space

Outcomes: observer method; incident taxonomy; accessibility & inclusion plan; RCCE & rumor control.
Lab: ERoC runbook + CAP/RCCE messaging pack.

POL-MC-314 Supply Chain Geopolitical Risk & Export Controls (NEW)

Outcomes: supplier/country risk heatmap; re-route/near-shore options; control plan; license matrix.
Lab: supply chain geopolitics memo + site selection safeguards.

POL-MC-315 Human Rights Due Diligence & Responsible Tech (NEW)

Outcomes: HRIA; rights safeguards for surveillance/AI/data projects; remedy & monitoring plan.
Lab: HRIA dossier + governance controls.

POL-MC-316 Energy Security & Critical Minerals (NEW)

Outcomes: supply risk model; policy levers; JT/social safeguards; nature dependencies.
Lab: minerals risk brief + stakeholder plan.

POL-MC-317 Migration, Refugee Policy & Operations (NEW)

Outcomes: access & continuity; protection & registration; service delivery links; anti-exploitation safeguards.
Lab: migration response plan + OD.

POL-MC-318 Geoeconomics & Economic Statecraft (NEW)

Outcomes: tariffs/quotas/export restrictions modeling; investment screening; subsidy & industrial policy brief.
Lab: statecraft options paper for a sector.

POL-MC-319 Space, Cyber & Spectrum Governance (NEW)

Outcomes: space asset & spectrum risk; GNSS spoof/jam mitigation; cyber/ICS implications; continuity plans.
Lab: space/cyber risk dossier + continuity playbook.

POL-MC-321 AI Governance, Safety & Influence Ops (NEW)

Outcomes: AI risk controls (policy, data, testing); red-team; deepfake/influence playbook; transparency/reporting.
Lab: AI governance kit + OD on model risk & integrity.

POL-MC-322 Digital Authoritarianism & Internet Governance (NEW)

Outcomes: censorship/surveillance mapping; circumvention & safety; platform & standards engagement strategy.
Lab: digital rights & resilience plan.

POL-MC-421 Sovereign Risk & Debt Crises

Outcomes: debt sustainability sketch; politics-finance feedbacks; restructuring paths & social safeguards.
Lab: sovereign risk memo + negotiation map.

POL-MC-422 Negotiation & Mediation in Crises

Outcomes: stakeholder mapping; BATNA/zone of possible agreement; ethics & protection; agreement drafting.
Lab: mediation workbook + OD simulation.

8) Capstone & Programs

POL-MC-599 Political Risk Capstone (Level-5)

Tracks:

• Board Defense: country/sector strategy, compliance, human-rights & tech governance.
• Deployment: live ERoC or sanctions/OSINT cell with dashboards, SOPs, and incident handling.
  Portfolio (must include): DSS (alerts, triggers, dashboards), OSINT dossier (PROV), sanctions/export case, HRIA, disinfo counter-strategy, and policy memo. VC issuance; public artifacts may receive DOIs.

PRG-PC-POL-01 Professional Certificate — Political & Geopolitical Risk

• Pick 4–5 MCs from 211/212/213/311/312/313/314/315/316/317/318/319/321/322/421/422 + POL-MC-599
• Total: ≈ 8.0 NCU (80 h) + capstone; min rev for each MC >=25.09.

Advanced Certificates (choose track)

• AC — Governance & Integrity: PC(POL) + PC(Public Risks) + red-team on sanctions/HRIA/procurement integrity.
• AC — GeoTech & Influence: PC(POL) + PC(Technology Risks) + red-team on AI/synthetic media/cyber-space continuity.
• AC — Economic Statecraft & Trade: PC(POL) + PC(Finance) + red-team on sanctions, export controls, investment screening.

DIP — Cross-Stream Political Leadership

• Any 2 ACs (≥1 POL) + CORE-MC-595 + board defense.

Fellow-PNG (Political Risks)

• Invitation-only. Publish in Nexus Journals, release reproducible data/code (DOI), steward standards mappings (ORCID/ROR recorded).

9) Implementation Profile

• NB: 1–2 lessons; randomized Quiz + Assignment (artifact); Certificate on; Forum on.
• MB: multi-lesson; Assignment rubric + Quiz; Prereq (≥1 NB) on.
• MC: lessons + Lab Assignment + Scenario Assignment + Proctored Quiz/Oral (Zoom/approved tool); Prereqs on; Certificate on.
• Capstone: cohort schedule; panel rubric; oral defense recording.
• Webhooks: badge.issued, badge.revoked, program.conferral, artifact.published → NXS-NSF (OB3/VC).
• Telemetry: xAPI/Caliper events for start, item, submission, grade, badge.

10) Standards, Competencies & CPD Mapping

• Standards & frameworks: UNGPs; IHL basics; UN/EU/US/UK sanctions; export controls (EAR/ITAR/EU Dual-Use); AML/CTF expectations; IFC Performance Standards, FPIC, UNDRIP; election observation & accessibility; OSINT ethics & chain-of-custody; ISO 27001/27701; NIST CSF & AI RMF; accessibility WCAG 2.2 AA.
• Competency frameworks: ESCO roles—Political/Policy Analyst, Intelligence/OSINT Analyst, Sanctions/Trade Compliance Officer, Election Operations Lead, Social Safeguards Specialist, Disinformation/Integrity Lead; optional SFIA mappings (data/cyber/AI).
• CPD/CE: ACAMS (sanctions/AML), ISACA (cyber/privacy/AI), IAPP (privacy), PMI/IPMA (ops/coordination), communication & journalism bodies (information integrity); advisory ECTS totals on course pages.

11) Metadata & Credential Examples

MC JSON-LD (trimmed)

{
  "@context": ["https://schema.org", "https://lrmi.dublincore.org/jsonld/context.jsonld"],
  "@type": "EducationalOccupationalProgram",
  "identifier": "POL-MC-312",
  "version": "25.09.0",
  "name": "Conflict Early Warning & Atrocity Prevention",
  "description": "Design indicator frameworks, triggers, and preventive options; produce an early-warning dashboard and referral SOPs.",
  "timeToComplete": "PT18H",
  "educationalCredentialAwarded": "Micro-Certificate",
  "programPrerequisites": ["CORE-NB-113","POL-NB-206","POL-MB-216"],
  "provider": {"@type":"Organization","name":"GCRI"},
  "teaches": [
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Atrocity Prevention"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Early Warning Indicators"}
  ]
}

Badge policy essentials (OB3/VC). BadgeClass binds to POL-… code + rev; assertion uses hashed recipient + salt; evidence links to artifacts with SPDX & PROV; public status list; optional hash-only anchoring via NXS-NSF.

12) QA & Release Gates (Political Risks)

1. Catalog linter: codes, revs, prereq DAG, standards/competency tags, i18n.
2. Accessibility: WCAG 2.2 AA automated + manual checks (maps, multilingual layouts).
3. Psychometrics: reliability ≥ 0.75; discrimination ≥ 0.25; multilingual DIF.
4. Provenance & privacy: SPDX + PROV; consent & minimization; ethics notes for sensitive/community data.
5. Operational safety: no targeting/vulnerability specifics; do-no-harm review for conflict contexts.
6. Release notes: version bump; MAJOR → delta-exam invitation; CPD table updated.

13) Emerging-Risk Annex

• GenAI & synthetic media: deepfake detection, provenance/watermarking, content authenticity schemas, red-team testing, crisis comms.
• Cyber-physical & ICS: sabotage, ransomware, misinformation during outages; CI failover drill injects.
• Space & GNSS: spoofing/jamming, space weather, LEO constellation dependencies, spectrum conflicts.
• Quantum geopolitics: crypto-agility planning, standardization races, export-control impacts.
• Bio & health security: dual-use information risks, public-health disinfo, genomic data governance.
• Crypto/Web3: sanctions evasion typologies, mixer & bridge risks, NFT/DAO governance exposure.
• Critical minerals & energy transitions: resource nationalism, chokepoints, just transition safeguards.
• Maritime & subsea cables: sabotage & repair logistics, legal regimes, redundancy planning.
• Diaspora & transnational repression: safety protocols, platform escalation, legal remedies.
• Platform governance: algorithmic amplification, election-period interventions, transparency & appeal routes.