SYS — Systemic Risks

1) Purpose, Scope & Design Principles

Mission. Turn complexity science, network analytics, foresight, and decision quality into operational playbooks that anticipate polycrisis dynamics and exponential-tech convergence (AI/AGI, bio-digital, quantum, space, cyber-physical) while grounding actions in local realities (municipal finance, informal settlements, social cohesion, environmental justice).

Design principles

• Standards-anchored & interoperable: ISO 31000/31010, ISO 22301/22320, ISO 37123, ISO 14090/14091, COSO ERM, ISSB S1/S2, TNFD/SBTN, DORA/NIS2, IEC 62443, NIST CSF & AI RMF, OGC/STAC, ISO 19115/19157, OpenTelemetry/xAPI.
• Evidence & portability: Every artifact is SPDX-licensed, carries W3C-PROV lineage, and is issued as Open Badges 3.0 in W3C Verifiable Credential envelopes; public artifacts may receive DOIs.
• Equity & ethics: FPIC/UNDRIP, Just Transition, do-no-harm; multilingual (EN/FR/ES/AR, RtL); WCAG 2.2 AA accessibility.
• Safety: synthetic/de-identified datasets; no exploit guidance for critical infrastructure; ethics review for sensitive contexts.

Nexus module alignment
NXSCore (GPU sims) · NXSQue (event orchestration) · NXSGRIx (global risk index) · NXS-EOP (AI/ML analytics) · NXS-EWS (multi-sensor alerts) · NXS-AAP (anticipatory playbooks) · NXS-DSS (executive dashboards) · NXS-NSF (OB3/VC issuance).

2) Tiers, Workload & Quality Targets

• NB (Nanobadge) 2–4 h (0.2–0.4 NCU): quiz + one artifact
• MB (Microbadge) 6–8 h (0.6–0.8 NCU): mini-project + quiz
• MC (Micro-Certificate) 12–20 h (1.2–2.0 NCU): lab + scenario + proctored QZ/OD
• PC 60–90 h: 4–5 MCs + capstone
• AC 120–150 h: 2 PCs + red-team defense
• DIP 240–300 h: cross-stream capstone + board defense
• Fellow-PNG invitation only: publish in Nexus Journals with open methods/data

Psychometrics: quiz reliability ≥ 0.75; item discrimination ≥ 0.25; multilingual DIF checks.
ECTS advisory: 1 NCU ≈ 0.33–0.40 ECTS.
Renewal: MAJOR revision → delta exam or artifact refresh.

3) Codes, Versioning & Catalog Ops

• Grammar: SYS-[NB|MB|MC]-2xx/3xx/4xx/599
• Releases: rev: YY.MM.P with public change log; delta exam on MAJOR
• Permalinks: /academy/courses/<code> (latest) + ?rev= specific
• Status: active | deprecated | superseded with successor mapping

4) Cross-Cutting Compliance & Interoperability

• Governance: ISO 31000/COSO ERM; portfolio-of-policies; transparent risk appetite.
• Continuity & incident: ISO 22301/22320; mutual-aid and cross-jurisdiction failover.
• Data & models: BCBS-style data governance; model lifecycle; explainability; sensitivity/robustness notes.
• Disclosure: ISSB S1/S2, TNFD/SBTN; uncertainty & confidence reporting.
• Tech & ops: NIST CSF; DORA/NIS2; IEC 62443 for OT; NIST AI RMF for AI safety.
• Spatial & telemetry: OGC/STAC (EO), ISO 19115/19157 metadata; OpenTelemetry/xAPI for logs/learning evidence.
• Equity: FPIC/UNDRIP; Just Transition; environmental justice & accessibility tagging.

5) Nanobadges (NB) — atomic systemic-risk skills (expanded)

Each NB includes a 10–12 item quiz and one portfolio artifact (SPDX + PROV).

1. SYS-NB-201 Complexity & Networks 101 → Artifact: toy network with centrality/community metrics.
2. SYS-NB-202 Shock Propagation 101 → Artifact: contagion/threshold model + sensitivity notes.
3. SYS-NB-203 Scenario Grammar 101 → Artifact: scenario tree + signposts.
4. SYS-NB-204 Uncertainty & Confidence 101 → Artifact: uncertainty statement (aleatory/epistemic).
5. SYS-NB-205 Decision Quality 101 → Artifact: decision record (6-element DQ).
6. SYS-NB-206 Early-Signal Design 101 → Artifact: weak-signal indicators & thresholds.
7. SYS-NB-207 Stress Ladders & Triggers 101 → Artifact: staged triggers + governance.
8. SYS-NB-208 Red-Team Basics 101 → Artifact: adversarial hypothesis + injects.
9. SYS-NB-209 Interdependency Mapping 101 → Artifact: lifeline dependency map.
10. SYS-NB-210 Portfolio-of-Policies 101 → Artifact: no-regret/options/hedges matrix.
    New & Emerging NBs
11. SYS-NB-211 AI/AGI Systemics 101 → agentic systems, scaling laws, compute governance; Artifact: AI risk screen.
12. SYS-NB-212 Bio-Digital Convergence 101 → biosecurity, data governance; Artifact: dual-use guardrails.
13. SYS-NB-213 Quantum Transition 101 → crypto-agility timelines; Artifact: migration inventory.
14. SYS-NB-214 Space Weather & Satellite 101 → GMD/LEO risks; Artifact: GNSS/cable continuity triggers.
15. SYS-NB-215 CBDC & RTP Systemics 101 → settlement & liquidity feedbacks; Artifact: payment rails stress map.
16. SYS-NB-216 DeFi/Stablecoin Systemics 101 → peg, liquidity, oracle/bridge; Artifact: risk heatmap.
17. SYS-NB-217 Subsea Cables & Internet 101 → topology & redundancy; Artifact: outage playbook.
18. SYS-NB-218 Critical Minerals & Trade 101 → chokepoints, JT; Artifact: supply stress signposts.
19. SYS-NB-219 Urban Informality & Social Cohesion 101 → protection & services; Artifact: cohesion indicators.
20. SYS-NB-220 Data Centers, Energy & Water 101 → grid/water stress; Artifact: siting risk screen.

6) Microbadges (MB) — applied bridges (expanded)

• SYS-MB-211 Network-of-Networks Mini → coupled infra–finance–health network; hotspot memo.
• SYS-MB-212 Scenario Weaving Mini → cross-stream scenarios; signposts & triggers.
• SYS-MB-213 Stress Propagation Simulator Mini → agent-based model + dashboard.
• SYS-MB-214 Bayesian Updating & Model Risk Mini → posterior updates + model risk notes.
• SYS-MB-215 Foresight Signals Lab Mini → news/EO/market/social telemetry → alert logic.
• SYS-MB-216 Cross-Domain Tabletop Mini → cyber→power→health→payments cascade; AAR.
• SYS-MB-217 Portfolio-of-Policies Lab Mini → robustness under deep uncertainty.
• SYS-MB-218 Decision Review & Bias Mini → pre-/post-mortem + DQ checklist.
  New & Emerging MBs
• SYS-MB-219 AI Agents & Autonomy Mini → guardrails for agentic systems in ops.
• SYS-MB-220 Quantum Readiness Mini → crypto inventory, hybrid pilots, vendor map.
• SYS-MB-221 Geo-Economics & Chokepoints Mini → SLOCs, canal/strait risk, reroute plan.
• SYS-MB-222 Subsea & Satellite Continuity Mini → cable/LEO redundancy & failover.
• SYS-MB-223 DeFi/Stablecoin Contagion Mini → liquidity spiral sim; policy options.
• SYS-MB-224 Municipal Distress & Services Mini → city finance, utilities continuity.
• SYS-MB-225 Data-Center Siting & Resource Mini → energy/water siting & community safeguards.
• SYS-MB-226 Food–Climate–Conflict Mini → trade bans, pests, fertilizer shocks; relief finance.
• SYS-MB-227 Migration & Urban Systems Mini → surge planning; protection & services.
• SYS-MB-228 Platform Governance & Infodemics Mini → authenticity, crisis comms, safety.

7) Micro-Certificates (MC) — 12–20 h; proctored (expanded)

Rule: Each MC requires ≥5 CORE 101 NBs, ≥2 SYS NBs, ≥1 MB, plus the lab below.
Assessment mix: Lab 50% · Scenario brief 20% · Proctored QZ/OD 30%.

SYS-MC-201 Complexity & Network Science

Network-of-networks analysis; fragility & mitigation; reporting with uncertainty.
Lab: coupled network + hotspot memo. Roles: Systemic Risk Analyst; Enterprise Architect.

SYS-MC-202 Scenario Design & Simulation

Scenario tree & narratives; ABM/stochastic sketch; signposts/triggers; OD on assumptions.
Lab: scenario pack + simulator demo. Roles: Foresight Lead; Strategy/Policy Planner.

SYS-MC-203 Uncertainty, Confidence & Decision Quality

Uncertainty statements; VOI/EVPI sketches; decision reviews; premortem/postmortem.
Lab: decision record + VOI note. Roles: Decision Scientist; Risk Governance.

SYS-MC-311 Cross-Domain Foresight Lab

Fuse EO/markets/supply chain/cyber/health/social signals; escalation ladder & comms.
Lab: signals pipeline + alert pack. Roles: Early Warning/Intel Lead.

SYS-MC-312 Macro-Financial–Climate Coupling

Climate→macro→credit/liquidity channels; balance-sheet-level stress; management actions.
Lab: coupling dashboard + memo. Roles: Macroprudential Analyst; Treasury/Risk.

SYS-MC-313 Governance for Systemic Risk

Mandates, accountability, transparency; portfolio-of-policies; equity safeguards.
Lab: governance charter + policy bundle. Roles: CRO/Resilience Director; Regulator.

New & Emerging MCs

• SYS-MC-314 AI/AGI Governance & Agentic Systemics
  Guardrails, evaluation/red-team, autonomy thresholds, compute governance, critical decision-loop risk.
  Lab: AI risk register + agent controls + OD.
• SYS-MC-315 Bio-Digital & Health-Systemic Coupling
  AMR, genomic data governance, dual-use safeguards, health system surge & misinformation feedbacks.
  Lab: bio-digital risk map + safeguards dossier.
• SYS-MC-316 Quantum Transition & Crypto-Agility
  Inventory, migration roadmaps, hybrid cryptography, ecosystem coordination, FMI dependencies.
  Lab: crypto-agility plan + vendor dependency map.
• SYS-MC-317 Space-Weather, LEO & Subsea Infrastructure
  GMD/Kp thresholds, GNSS timing resilience, LEO congestion, subsea cable redundancy/repair logistics.
  Lab: continuity playbook + trigger table.
• SYS-MC-318 CBDC, RTP & FMI Interoperability
  CBDC/RTP architectures, intraday liquidity, financial inclusion vs fraud/APP risk, outage & failover.
  Lab: payment rails stress pack + policy options.
• SYS-MC-319 DeFi/Stablecoin & Tokenized Markets
  Peg design, liquidity spirals, oracle/bridge risk, CCP/RTGS interactions; policy and supervisory tools.
  Lab: DeFi contagion sim + mitigation memo.
• SYS-MC-320 Energy Transition & Critical Minerals Systemics
  Grid stability, storage/minerals supply, social license & nature safeguards, price/affordability shocks.
  Lab: transition systemic map + JT safeguards.
• SYS-MC-321 Food–Water–Climate–Conflict Coupling
  Drought & trade bans, fertilizer/pest shocks, displacement/migration; anticipatory finance.
  Lab: nexus dashboard + AA triggers.
• SYS-MC-322 Urban Informality, Cohesion & Safety Nets
  Municipal finance stress, slum risk, social protection triggers, community trust & legitimacy.
  Lab: city systemic risk atlas + safety-net triggers.
• SYS-MC-323 Platform Governance, Information Integrity & Trust
  Authenticity, watermarking, crisis comms, recommender risks, election period safeguards.
  Lab: integrity runbook + metrics.
• SYS-MC-324 Ocean & Cryosphere Tipping Systemics
  SLR/AMOC/arctic feedbacks; finance & relocation; adaptation lock-in.
  Lab: tipping narrative + portfolio-of-policies.

8) Capstone & Programs

SYS-MC-599 Systemic Risk Capstone (Level-5)

Tracks:

• Board Defense: institutional/territorial systemic-risk strategy, risk appetite, governance, finance.
• Deployment: live DSS/EWS pilot (signals + triggers + anticipatory finance) across at least three streams (e.g., power–payments–health).
  Portfolio (must include): network heatmap, scenario/signpost pack, early-signal dashboard, policy portfolio with AA plan, transparency charter. Issued as VC; public artifacts may receive DOIs.

PRG-PC-SYS-01 Professional Certificate — Systemic Risks

• Pick 4–5 MCs from 201/202/203/311/312/313/314–324 + SYS-MC-599; ≈ 8.0 NCU (80 h) + capstone; each MC >=25.09.

Advanced Certificates (choose track)

• AC — Macro-Climate-Finance Systemics: PC(SYS) + PC(FIN) + red-team defense (transmission channels & policy mixes).
• AC — City/Infrastructure Systemics: PC(SYS) + PC(PUB or ENV) + red-team defense (interdependencies & MEL).
• AC — Tech-Society Systemics: PC(SYS) + PC(TEC or POL) + red-team defense (AI/cyber/space/information integrity).

DIP — Cross-Stream Systemic Leadership

• Any 2 ACs (≥1 SYS) + CORE-MC-595 + board defense.

Fellow-PNG (Systemic Risks)

• Invitation-only. Publish in Nexus Journals, release open code/data (DOI), maintain standard crosswalks (ORCID/ROR recorded).

9) Implementation Profile

• NB: 1–2 lessons; randomized Quiz + Assignment (artifact); Certificate on; Forum on.
• MB: multi-lesson; Assignment rubric + Quiz; Prereq (≥1 NB) on.
• MC: lessons + Lab + Scenario + Proctored Quiz/Oral; Prereqs on; Certificate on.
• Capstone: cohort schedule; panel rubric; oral defense recording.
• Webhooks: badge.issued, badge.revoked, program.conferral, artifact.published → NXS-NSF (OB3/VC).
• Telemetry: xAPI/Caliper events for start, item, submission, grade, badge.

10) Standards, Competencies & CPD Mapping

• Standards: ISO 31000/31010; ISO 22301/22320; ISO 37123; ISO 14090/14091; COSO ERM; ISSB S1/S2; TNFD/SBTN; DORA/NIS2; IEC 62443; NIST CSF & AI RMF; OGC/STAC; ISO 19115/19157; OpenTelemetry/xAPI.
• Competencies (ESCO/SFIA-aligned): Systemic Risk Analyst, Foresight Lead, Macroprudential Analyst, City/Infrastructure Resilience Lead, Enterprise Architect, Decision Scientist, Platform Integrity Lead.
• CPD/CE advisory: IAEM/BCI, GARP/PRMIA, planning/engineering institutes, policy/administration bodies; ECTS equivalents on course pages.

11) Metadata & Credential Example

MC JSON-LD (trimmed)

{
  "@context": ["https://schema.org", "https://lrmi.dublincore.org/jsonld/context.jsonld"],
  "@type": "EducationalOccupationalProgram",
  "identifier": "SYS-MC-318",
  "version": "25.09.1",
  "name": "CBDC, RTP & FMI Interoperability",
  "description": "Assess systemic risks across CBDC and real-time payment rails, model intraday liquidity and outage cascades, and design failover and policy options.",
  "timeToComplete": "PT18H",
  "educationalCredentialAwarded": "Micro-Certificate",
  "programPrerequisites": ["CORE-NB-117","SYS-NB-215","SYS-MB-221"],
  "provider": {"@type":"Organization","name":"GCRI"},
  "teaches": [
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Intraday Liquidity"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Financial Market Infrastructures"},
    {"@type":"DefinedTerm","name":"Systemic Outage Cascades"}
  ]
}

Badge policy essentials. BadgeClass binds to SYS-… code + rev; assertion uses hashed recipient + salt; evidence links to SPDX/PROV artifacts; public status list; optional hash-only anchoring via NXS-NSF.

12) QA & Release Gates (Systemic Risks)

1. Catalog linter: codes, revs, prereq DAG, standards/competency tags, i18n.
2. Accessibility: WCAG 2.2 AA checks for network maps/heatmaps and complex charts.
3. Psychometrics: reliability ≥ 0.75; discrimination ≥ 0.25; multilingual DIF.
4. Provenance & privacy: SPDX + PROV; consent/minimization; synthetic/de-identified datasets only.
5. Model governance: assumptions, sensitivity/robustness, peer review for major releases.
6. Operational safety: no step-by-step exploit detail; do-no-harm in conflict/sensitive areas.
7. Release notes: version bump; MAJOR → delta-exam invitation; CPD matrix updated.

13) Emerging-Risk Annex

• AI/AGI & agentic systems: autonomy thresholds, alignment failure modes, model inter-correlation, compute concentration, energy/water footprints.
• Bio-digital convergence: AMR economics, synthetic biology info risks, genomic data & privacy, lab-in-the-cloud governance.
• Quantum horizon: crypto-break timelines, hybrid operations, FMI interoperability, vendor lock-in and migration risk.
• Space & spectrum: geomagnetic storms, GNSS spoof/jam, LEO congestion/Kessler dynamics, spectrum conflicts, satellite downlink security.
• Payments & money: CBDC design choices, instant payments fraud/APP, RTGS outages, CCP/RTGS/ACH/T+1 interactions.
• DeFi & tokenized markets: stablecoin pegs, oracle/bridge failures, governance attacks, market integrity.
• Energy transition: grid stability under EV/heat pump/AI load, critical mineral supply concentration, hydrogen & storage safety, affordability.
• Food–water–climate: droughts, pests, fertilizer and fuel price spikes, export bans, humanitarian spillovers.
• Supply chain & chokepoints: canals/straits, ports, rare earth processing, semiconductor & advanced packaging, subsea cables.
• Urban informality & cohesion: municipal distress, service failures, crime and extremist recruitment risks, inclusive safety nets.
• Information integrity: deepfakes, authenticity, platform governance during elections/crises, trust & legitimacy metrics.
• Environmental tipping points: AMOC/cryosphere, wildfire regimes, permafrost methane, ocean acidification; adaptation lock-in.
• Public health systemics: surge capacity shocks, workforce burnout, infodemics, MHPSS as resilience.
• Geo-economics: sanctions/controls, friend-shoring, subsidy races, debt sustainability, currency & commodity shocks.
• Legal/regulatory volatility: rapid rule changes, extraterritorial reach, compliance capacity gaps.
• Equity & justice: distributional impacts of shocks and transitions, grievance redress, participation & benefit sharing.