Frontier technology guide
This guide is the entry point to the frontier technologies that The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) follows: artificial intelligence, quantum, biotechnology, space and Earth observation, robotics and advanced computing. For each it explains what the technology does, where it stands today, what it depends on and where it changes risk. Each links to the GCRI specialist platform for that field, all of them in development, and to the methods behind the analysis. This page is part of innovation and technological change.
- Institution
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
Innovation pipeline
GCRI · Stage gates
By readiness level
Readiness criteria
pilot vs gate
Pilot issues
- I-1Data licence for pilot siteTo check7 d
- I-2Observer protocol signedDone5 d
GCRI · Innovation pipelineInnovation pipeline, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The short answer.
The GCRI frontier technology guide is the entry point to six technology fields: artificial intelligence, quantum, biotechnology, space and Earth observation, robotics and advanced computing. For each it explains what the technology does, where it stands, what it depends on and where it changes risk, and it links to the specialist platform for that field.
Draft to published version.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Systemic exposure in Asia.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for Asia as an example geography for this subject.
Six frontier fields, each with a specialist platform.
| Technology | Where it changes risk | Platform |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems | Model failure, misuse, concentration of compute, autonomy in safety-critical settings | AI and Autonomous Systems |
| Quantum technologies | Future pressure on current cryptography, new sensing and timing capability | Quantum Technologies |
| Biotechnology | Faster diagnostics and vaccines, dual-use and biosafety concerns | Biotechnology and Biosecurity |
| Space and Earth observation | Hazard monitoring, dependence on satellite timing and imagery | Space and Earth Observation |
| Robotics and advanced industry | Automated production and inspection, worker safety, skills | Advanced Industry and Robotics |
| Data and compute | Energy and water demand, concentration of capacity, data sovereignty | Data and Compute |
All six platforms are in development. They make no claims of activity until their communities, editors and services are in place.
Four questions for every technology.
- 01
What does it do?
A plain description of the capability, without marketing language.
- 02
How mature is it?
Evidence on current performance and readiness, with the source of each claim.
- 03
What does it depend on?
Inputs such as energy, materials, data, skills and a small number of suppliers.
- 04
How does it change risk?
New capability for resilience, new exposures and the institutions that must respond.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Frontier technology | A new technology with the potential for wide economic and social change, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology or quantum computing, as UNCTAD's Technology and Innovation Reports use the term. |
| Technology readiness level | A scale from basic principles to proven operation that describes how mature a technology is. |
| Dual use | Technology or research that can serve both civilian and military purposes. |
| Pacing problem | The gap that opens when technology develops faster than the laws and institutions that govern it. |
The science behind the guide.
The guide draws on method pages such as quantum computing, sensing and communication, biotechnology platforms and space systems and satellite services. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines financial implications, for example under quantum and cryptographic transition. See also converging technologies and responsible technology.
Questions and answers.
Is the guide a ranking of technologies?
How current is the guide?
Can I contribute expertise on a technology?
Why include data and compute as a frontier field?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.