Causal inference and impact evaluation
Causal inference and impact evaluation develop methods to determine whether and how interventions or exposures cause outcomes. They separate genuine effects from correlation. Economic Development stewards this page for the Nexus Consortium.
- 01InstitutionThe Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- 02Service levelR0: information and enquiries
- 03In briefThe short answer
- 04The methodWhat causal inference and impact evaluation covers
- 05Reference practiceCausal inference follows evaluation and reporting standards
- 06In systemic risk workWhat actually reduced risk
- 07Applied inPlatforms that apply this method
GCRI · Institution · service level R0
The short answer.
Causal inference and impact evaluation develop methods to determine whether and how interventions or exposures cause outcomes. Causal inference shows which risk reduction measures actually work. In the Nexus Consortium, Economic Development stewards its canonical page, and 7 other platforms apply it, including Health Nexus and Biodiversity Nexus.
Systemic exposure in Western Europe.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for Western Europe as an example geography for this subject.
What causal inference and impact evaluation covers.
- 01
Core methods
randomised controlled trials; difference-in-differences; instrumental variables; regression discontinuity; matching and weighting; causal graphical models.
- 02
Data and instruments
experimental data; panel datasets; administrative records; natural experiments; survey data.
- 03
Validation
Identification assumptions are probed through placebo tests, falsification checks and sensitivity analysis. Replication across settings tests external validity.
- 04
Limits
Unobserved confounding and spillovers can bias estimates. Effects found in one context may not transfer to another.
- 05
Use in risk decisions
Causal inference shows which risk reduction measures actually work. It supports allocating resources toward interventions with demonstrated effect across connected risks.
Causal inference follows evaluation and reporting standards.
| Reference | What it sets |
|---|---|
| OECD DAC evaluation criteria | Evaluation of interventions |
| EQUATOR guidelines | Reporting of studies |
| GRADE | Certainty of evidence |
What actually reduced risk.
Risk reduction investments need evidence of effect. Causal inference (experiments, natural experiments, difference-in-differences, synthetic controls) identifies effects, but disasters are rare and contexts differ, so external validity is the main limit.
- State identification assumptions.
- Assess transferability to other contexts.
- Avoid attributing outcomes to interventions without a counterfactual.
- Applications on Economic Development and Human Development.
Platforms that apply this method.
Who maintains this page.
Economic Development stewards causal inference and impact evaluation: it keeps this description current and reviews how the method is applied across the platforms.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Additionality | Whether official finance enabled an outcome that would not otherwise have happened. |
| Counterfactual | What would have happened without the intervention, which every impact estimate approximates. |
| Night lights | Satellite measures of night-time light used as a proxy for economic activity. |
| Interrupted time series | A design that compares an outcome's trend before and after an intervention. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
- Causal inference for public healthGCRIApplied in Health Nexus.
- Impact evaluation for conservationGCRIApplied in Biodiversity Nexus.
- Causal inference for pilotsGCRIApplied in Nexus Labs.
- Impact evaluationGCRIApplied in Economic Development.
- Impact evaluation for human developmentGCRIApplied in Society and Human Development.
- Causal inference for research policyGRFApplied in Research Nexus.
- Causal inference for public policyGRFApplied in Policy Nexus.
- Impact evaluation of development financeGRAApplied in Development Finance Nexus.
Questions and answers.
Why does one institution host every method page?
How do I suggest a correction to a method page?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.