Forecasting and time-series analysis
Forecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information. They support early warning and planning across hazards, markets and health. Climate and Hazards stewards this page for the Nexus Consortium.
- 01In briefThe short answer
- 02The methodWhat forecasting and time-series analysis covers
- 03Reference practiceForecasting practice is verified against outcomes
- 04In systemic risk workFrom hazard forecast to action
- 05Applied inPlatforms that apply this method
- 06StewardshipWho maintains this page
- 07Key termsTerms used on this page
GCRI · Institution · service level R0
The short answer.
Forecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information. Forecasts trigger early action and anticipatory finance before shocks materialise. In the Nexus Consortium, Climate and Hazards stewards its canonical page, and 6 other platforms apply it, including Water Nexus and Food Nexus.
Systemic exposure in Oceania and the Pacific.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for Oceania and the Pacific as an example geography for this subject.
What forecasting and time-series analysis covers.
- 01
Core methods
autoregressive models; state space models; ensemble forecasting; machine learning forecasting; nowcasting; forecast combination.
- 02
Data and instruments
historical time series; real-time monitoring feeds; numerical model outputs; economic indicators; surveys of expectations.
- 03
Validation
Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.
- 04
Limits
Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.
- 05
Use in risk decisions
Forecasts trigger early action and anticipatory finance before shocks materialise. Probabilistic forecasts allow decisions to account for uncertainty across connected systems.
Forecasting practice is verified against outcomes.
| Reference | What it sets |
|---|---|
| WMO forecast verification guidance | Skill scores and verification |
| Impact-based forecasting (WMO) | Forecasts of consequences, not only hazards |
| Early Warnings for All | Forecasting as a warning pillar |
From hazard forecast to action.
Forecasts become useful for risk when tied to thresholds that trigger action. Impact-based forecasting and forecast-based financing link probabilistic forecasts to pre-agreed actions. Verification tells whether the forecasts are reliable enough for that use.
- Verify forecasts with proper scoring rules.
- Calibrate thresholds to false-alarm tolerance.
- Communicate probabilities clearly.
- Applications on Climate and Hazards and Disaster Resilience and Recovery.
Who maintains this page.
Climate and Hazards stewards forecasting and time-series analysis: it keeps this description current and reviews how the method is applied across the platforms.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Hit rate | The share of observed events that were correctly forecast in advance. |
| Impact-based forecast | A forecast of the expected effects of a hazard on people and assets, not only the hazard itself. |
| Lead time | The interval between the issue of a forecast and the event it predicts, which sets how much time there is to act. |
| Ensemble forecast | A set of forecasts run from slightly different starting conditions or models, whose spread expresses the forecast's uncertainty. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
- Hydrological forecastingGCRIApplied in Water Nexus.
- Forecasting for food securityGCRIApplied in Food Nexus.
- Forecasting for power systemsGCRIApplied in Energy Nexus.
- Forecasting for hazardsGCRIApplied in Climate and Hazards.
- Forecasting for early actionGCRIApplied in Disaster Resilience and Recovery.
- Forecasting in foresightGRFApplied in Foresight Nexus.
- Forecasting and time-series analysis for disaster risk financeGRAApplied in Disaster Risk Finance.
Questions and answers.
Why does one institution host every method page?
How do I suggest a correction to a method page?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.