Climate and atmospheric science
Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. It provides the basis for understanding changes in hazard frequency and intensity that propagate through economic and social systems. Climate and Hazards stewards this page for the Nexus Consortium.
- 01InstitutionThe Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- 02Service levelR0: information and enquiries
- 03In briefThe short answer
- 04The methodWhat climate and atmospheric science covers
- 05Reference practiceClimate science is assessed through the IPCC and coordinated through WCRP
- 06In systemic risk workProjections must match the decision they serve
- 07Applied inPlatforms that apply this method
GCRI · Institution · service level R0
The short answer.
Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. Climate projections frame long-horizon scenarios for infrastructure, insurance, food systems and public finance. In the Nexus Consortium, Climate and Hazards stewards its canonical page, and 4 other platforms apply it, including Climate and Nature Governance as well as Insurance Nexus.
Climate and hazard exposure in Central Asia.
Coastal exposure, deserts, deltas and glaciers across the region, shown for Central Asia as an example geography for this subject.
What climate and atmospheric science covers.
- 01
Core methods
general circulation modelling; reanalysis; detection and attribution; dynamical and statistical downscaling; ensemble projection; paleoclimate reconstruction.
- 02
Data and instruments
surface weather stations; radiosondes; satellite radiometers; ocean profiling floats; ice and sediment cores.
- 03
Validation
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
- 04
Limits
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
- 05
Use in risk decisions
Climate projections frame long-horizon scenarios for infrastructure, insurance, food systems and public finance. They allow correlated hazards across regions and sectors to be examined together.
Climate science is assessed through the IPCC and coordinated through WCRP.
| Reference | What it sets |
|---|---|
| IPCC assessment reports | Assessed state of knowledge with calibrated confidence and likelihood language |
| WCRP CMIP | Coordinated model experiments that projections are drawn from |
| Copernicus Climate Data Store (ERA5) | Reanalysis used as the observational baseline in many studies |
| WMO climate normals guidance | Reference periods for describing climate |
Projections must match the decision they serve.
A climate projection used for a thirty-year infrastructure decision needs different handling from one used for seasonal food security planning. The common errors in risk work are using an ensemble mean as if it were a forecast, treating one emission scenario as the expected future, and ignoring the dependence between hazards that the same climate model produces consistently.
- Report ensemble spread and the scenario set, not only a central estimate.
- Use bias-corrected and downscaled products with their method named.
- Keep physically consistent joint hazards from the same model run when compound events matter.
- See the hazard applications on Climate and Hazards.
Who maintains this page.
Climate and Hazards stewards climate and atmospheric science: it keeps this description current and reviews how the method is applied across the platforms.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Downscaling | Deriving local climate information from coarse global model output, by statistical relationships or by running higher-resolution regional models. |
| Event footprint | The mapped intensity of a hazard, such as peak gust or flood depth, across the area an event affected. |
| Climate-conditioned event set | A catalogue of simulated events whose frequency and intensity are adjusted to a stated climate state rather than the historical average. |
| Event attribution | Analysis of how climate change altered the likelihood or intensity of a specific extreme. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
- Climate science for hazardsGCRIApplied in Climate and Hazards.
- Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature GovernanceGRFApplied in Climate and Nature Governance.
- Climate science for insurance hazardGRAApplied in Insurance Nexus.
- Climate and atmospheric science for reinsurance and catastropheGRAApplied in Reinsurance and Catastrophe.
- Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial RiskGRAApplied in Climate and Nature Financial Risk.
Questions and answers.
Why does one institution host every method page?
How do I suggest a correction to a method page?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.