Food and agriculture
Food system risk is the probability that production shocks, trade restrictions, input prices and household incomes combine so that people cannot obtain enough safe and nutritious food, even when global supply looks adequate.
- 01In briefThe short answer
- 02Three mandatesThe field, seen three ways
- 03The systemic questionSynchronous failure and the price channel
- 04FrameworksHow food insecurity is measured and governed
- 05CouplingsThe links that make food a systemic field
- 06GroundingThe methods behind the field
- 07Key termsTerms used on this page
GCRI · Institution · service level R0
The short answer.
Food and agriculture as a field of risk covers whether people can reliably obtain safe and nutritious food, from soils, water and production through trade, storage and markets to household access. In the Nexus Consortium it is studied as science at GCRI by Food Nexus as well as Biotechnology and Biosecurity as well as governed at GRF by Climate and Nature Governance; this gateway links those platforms and the methods they share.
Food systems and trade routes in the Horn of Africa.
Plains, deltas and basins, the corridors that carry food to ports, and how far each division sits from one, shown for the Horn of Africa as an example geography for this subject.
The field, seen three ways.
Financial understanding
No platform yet in this field.
Synchronous failure and the price channel.
The global food system concentrates production of staple grains in a few breadbaskets and export in a few corridors. A concurrent harvest shortfall, an export restriction or a fertilizer price spike can travel to import-dependent countries faster than domestic policy can respond. Access, not availability, is where acute food insecurity is decided: price transmission into local markets, household purchasing power and social protection.
- Breadbasket synchrony: climate modes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation correlate yields across regions.
- Chokepoints: a small number of straits and ports carry a large share of grain trade.
- Input dependence: nitrogen fertilizer production is tied to natural gas prices.
- Policy contagion: one country's export restriction raises the incentive for others to follow.
How food insecurity is measured and governed.
| Framework or body | What it governs or supplies |
|---|---|
| Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) | Five-phase severity scale for acute and chronic food insecurity, with consensus analysis |
| FAO food balance sheets and FAOSTAT | Production, trade and utilization by commodity and country |
| AMIS (G20 market information system) | Market transparency on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans |
| GEOGLAM Crop Monitor | Satellite-informed crop condition assessments |
| Committee on World Food Security | Voluntary guidelines including those on the right to food and on tenure |
The links that make food a systemic field.
- Water: irrigated land produces a large share of global food output from a smaller share of cropland.
- Energy: fertilizer, diesel and cold chains price energy into food.
- Trade: corridors, export policy and freight rates set import bills.
- Health: undernutrition raises disease burden, and animal disease affects protein supply.
The science sits on Food Nexus; methods start from agricultural science.
The methods behind the field.
- Agricultural, soil and food science
- Ecology and biodiversity science
- Earth observation and remote sensing
- Spatial statistics and geostatistics
- Forecasting and time-series analysis
- Optimization and operations research
- Econometrics
- Hydrology and water science
- Biotechnology platforms
- Water and environmental engineering
- Molecular and life sciences
- Epidemiology and public health science
- Probability and statistics
- Process and industrial safety engineering
- Climate and atmospheric science
- Policy, institutional and decision science
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Food security | A situation in which all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for an active and healthy life, as defined at the World Food Summit. |
| Food system | All the activities, actors and resources involved in producing, storing, processing, trading, consuming and disposing of food, and the outcomes they produce. |
| Acute food insecurity | Food insecurity severe enough to threaten lives or livelihoods at a given time, classified in five phases by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. |
| Yield gap | The difference between the yield farmers achieve and the yield attainable with the best adapted varieties and management under the same climate and soil. |
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Why does GCRI host field gateways?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.